This article has been translated from English to Gen Z Slang.
So, after Wednesday's Fed Chair drama had everyone shook and dollar haters on the prowl, today the US came through with the mother of all plot twists: a reminder that the American economy is still solid AF. 📈 Fundamentals over headlines any day! 🌟
Everything from retail sales smashing it to jobless claims taking a nosedive, the American consumer really came through as the unsung hero. The result? A total "good vibes only" rally with stocks shooting to the moon, oil blasting off, and the dollar flexing on all the major currencies. 💪💸
Here are the headlines you might’ve snoozed through in the last trading sessions! 📉📈
Headlines:
- Japan Reuters Tankan Index for July 2025: 7.0 (7.0 forecast; 6.0 previous)
- New Zealand Food Price Index for June 2025: 4.6% y/y (4.5% y/y forecast; 4.4% y/y previous)
- Japan Balance of Trade for June 2025: 153.1B (-100.0B forecast; -637.6B previous)
- Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations for July 2025: 4.7% (4.7% forecast; 5.0% previous)
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Australia Employment Change for June 2025: 2.0k (25.0k forecast; -2.5k previous)
- Australia Unemployment Rate for June 2025: 4.3% (4.1% forecast; 4.1% previous)
- Swiss Balance of Trade for June 2025: 4.3B (3.7B forecast; 2.0B previous)
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U.K. Employment Change for May 2025: 134.0k (50.0k forecast; 89.0k previous)
- U.K. Claimant Count Change for June 2025: 25.9k (21.0k forecast; 33.1k previous)
- U.K. Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) for May 2025: 5.0% (5.2% forecast; 5.3% previous)
- U.K. Unemployment Rate for May 2025: 4.7% (4.6% forecast; 4.6% previous)
- Euro area Consumer Price Index Growth Rate Final for June 2025: 2.0% y/y (2.0% y/y forecast; 1.9% y/y previous); 0.3% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; 0.0% m/m previous)
- Canada CFIB Business Barometer for July 2025: 50.9 (47.5 forecast; 47.3 previous)
- Canada Foreign Securities Purchases for May 2025: -2.79B (-9.36B previous)
- U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for July 2025: 15.9 (-3.0 forecast; -4.0 previous)
- U.S. Philly Fed Employment for July 2025: 10.3 (-9.8 previous)
- U.S. Philly Fed Prices Paid for July 2025: 58.8 (41.4 previous)
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for July 12, 2025: 221.0k (230.0k forecast; 227.0k previous)
- U.S. Retail Sales for June 2025: 3.9% y/y (3.6% y/y forecast; 3.3% y/y previous); 0.6% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; -0.9% m/m previous)
- On Thursday, the US Congress passed the first federal legislation to regulate stablecoins
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Risk-on peeps found their vibe again Thursday after brushing off the Trump-Powell saga. The goated US consumer wasn’t backing down; retail sales and unemployment claims legit came in hot at 8:30 AM, making stocks, oil, and crypto go bananas. 🍌📉
Crude Oil crushed it with a +1.19% glow up, just ignoring those sketchy supply vibes and riding that optimistic wave 🌊. It was a wild ride through the Asian and London times, but when those US retail numbers dropped, oil found its groove, betting on more spending equals more road trips and adventures ahead. 🚗💨
Equity indices didn't want to miss the FOMO train and joined the hype, fashionably late. The S&P 500 legit gained +0.72%, and its rally was having a blast post job data. Markets are basically saying “recession, what recession?” 🤔 as consumer power vibes are still live and kicking. Tech stocks hit their peak at 10:30 AM like champs. 🏆
The US Dollar Index showed some muscle with a +0.36% rise, likely hyped from the economy lit-ness and people realizing the Powell drama was just some political theater. Gold? Not so lucky. It got smacked starting in Asia, falling -0.26% after a US session rebounce. 🔥👑
Bitcoin had a roller coaster, starting with a decline on Wednesday night. It touched -1.80%, but the US data got the bulls back in action. Thanks to the fresh stablecoin law, Bitcoin zoomed past $120K after Wednesday's close. 🚀📈
Bonds had an interesting vibe, starting strong in Asia then cooling down in London. Bond bros were chill about any Fed shake-ups, seeing the US retail boom as good growth rather than a inflation monster. The US 10-year yield topped around 4.48% before cooling off to 4.45% by the end. 📉🍵
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The US dollar was on a roll, cruising smoothly against all the majors during the Asia and London AM hours. No fresh tea to spill but everyone was pretty much just shaking off that Fed drama from Wednesday. 🍵
After Trump hit the brakes on those Powell rumors, the dollar got its mojo back. Overnight strength was likely all about shorts getting roasted and people remembering the Fed is still rockin’. ‘Cause really, nothing screams “buy dollars” like confidence in the central bank staying legit. 💪 Capital still thinks about strong US CPI, making rate cuts look less suss.
The US dollar’s gains probs got a boost 'cause some major economies were having a rough time. Like, Australia's unemployment suddenly hitting 4.3% was a major L for AUD/USD, while the UK was sweating sticky inflation at 3.6%, which kept GBP defense mode activated while dealing with BoE policy feels and inflation worries. 😬
Volatility had a spike in the US session. Stellar U.S. economic numbers were all up in everyone’s faces. US retail sales beat the vibes at +0.6% against a 0.2% forecast, letting traders know Americans are still on that retail therapy grind. Meanwhile, jobless claims dipping to 221k (much lower than 234k expected) strengthened that “US economy just different” narrative, keeping the dollar strong against bad trade deals and US debt drama. Bruh, we even saw the Greenback chill out after the data, likely from some cash out and chill vibes after a solid US dollar energy day.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Japan Consumer Price Index Growth Rate for June 2025 at 11:30 pm GMT
- New Zealand Credit Card Spending YoY for June 2025 at 3:00 am GMT
- Germany Producer Price Index Growth Rate for June 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
- Euro area Current Account for May 2025 at 8:00 am GMT
- Euro area Construction Output for May 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
- U.S. Building Permits & Housing Starts for June 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July 2025 at 2:00 pm GMT
Japan CPI (11:30 PM GMT) Japan’s inflation update is the yen's big test. With hopes for a BOJ glow-up already shaky, if the numbers are soft, yen bears might go wild, and vice versa.
Germany PPI (6:00 AM GMT) German wholesale prices could drop some hints if Trump’s tariff talk is heating up costs in the eurozone. A high read might stress out an already dovish ECB, while a cool number will probs nail down the “Europe’s struggling” deal. 💶🥶
US Consumer Sentiment (2:00 PM GMT) After Thursday’s sick retail vibes, this is gonna show if Americans are feeling truly good or just spending on auto-pilot. Strong feels could emphasize “US economic boss life” boosting dollar power, but worries might come knocking if trade talks take a toll on consumer feels, deflating dollar hype a bit. 💭🛍️
As always, stay on the lookout and hit up our Forex Correlation Calculator when you're about to make some moves! 🔍✨
