This article has been translated from English to Gen Z Slang.

Lol, markets were all *vibes* on Monday, ya know? 📈 Stocks were popping off while peeps were tryna make sense of China's biz moves and hoping the US-China tea party and gov shutdown drama get sorted soon! 😅

Risk levels hit a chill spot as companies kept winning with their cash, and the trade beef seemed to be simmering down. But you know, gold’s been flexing, kinda like a heads-up that peeps are still sus about the whole 'what’s next?' scene. 🙈

Peep the forex tea and econ goss you might've snoozed on in the latest trading sesh! 🔍

Headlines & Data:

Asia-Pacific Data:

  • New Zealand Inflation Rate for September 30, 2025: 1.0% q/q (0.9% forecast; 0.5% previous); 3.0% y/y (2.9% forecast; 2.7% previous)
  • China GDP Growth Rate for September 30, 2025: 1.1% q/q (0.9% forecast; 1.1% previous); 4.8% y/y (4.9% forecast; 5.2% previous)
    • China Industrial Production for September 2025: 6.5% y/y (5.1% forecast; 5.2% previous)
    • China Retail Sales Growth Rate for September 2025: 3.0% y/y (3.0% forecast; 3.4% previous)
    • China Unemployment Rate for September 2025: 5.2% (5.2% forecast; 5.3% previous)
    • China House Price Index for September 2025: -2.2% y/y (-2.5% forecast; -2.5% previous)
  • BOJ Board Member Takata said it’s prime time ⏰ for hiking the bank’s rates.
  • Japan’s Lib Dems shook hands with the Innovation Party, so we might see Sanae Takaichi leveling up to PM soon!

Europe Data:

  • Germany Producer Prices Index Growth Rate for September 2025: -0.1% m/m (-0.2% forecast; -0.5% previous); -1.7% y/y (-1.9% forecast; -2.2% previous)
  • Euro area Current Account for August 2025: 13.0B (25.1B forecast; 35.0B previous)
  • ECB squad member Isabel Schnabel gave a shoutout for boosting the euro’s global game
  • S&P Global Ratings took France down a notch to A+ from AA- 'cause of coin concerns 💸

North America:

  • Canada PPI Growth Rate for September 2025: 0.8% m/m (-0.3% forecast; 0.5% previous); 5.5% y/y (4.6% forecast; 4.0% previous)
  • Canada Raw Materials Prices for September 2025: 1.7% m/m (-0.4% forecast; -0.6% previous); 8.4% y/y (5.0% forecast; 3.2% previous)
  • Bank of Canada’s Q3 biz survey was meh, upping the chances for a rate snip on October 29
  • Sassy White House econ guy Hassett said the gov shutdown might get ghosted this week. 🤞
  • Prez Trump spilt the beans that soybeans are on the shopping list in China talks, and he’s gearing up to chat with Xi Jinping next week 🚀

Broad Market Price Action:

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Monday had some good vibes from Trump on the China meet to kickstart the week, and with Q3 earnings filing in sweet surprises, we got this funky mix where risky stuff rose, but gold and USD stayed strong, reflecting some cautious mood lingering. 😬

The S&P 500 strutted up 1.1% as about 85% of report card companies smashed profit targets, tech titans were livin' at 1.7%, and small caps upped their game by 1.9% vibing with the Russell 2000 index. Apple had its 'yas queen' moment hitting a new 2025 peak thanks to a thumbs up for iPhone trends. 📲

Gold was shining bright like a diamond, up 2.3% to chill around $4,253 per oz. The shiny bling got love from Fed rate cut feels, gov shutdown chaos, and global beefs. The gold power, despite the risk craze, said structural demand is still a big mood. ✨

WTI crude oil spilled back 0.12% to park near $56.90 per barrel. No wild narratives here, feeling weighed by whispers OPEC+ might flex more production muscles and some demand dramas in China tbh. 😕

Bitcoin vibed with a 3.7% boost to cruise over $111,000, carrying last week’s recovery breeze from bank jitters. No big catalyst here, just crypto surfing today’s risk-on style, likely pulling in long-haul bucks post its $126K dip 😊

10-year Treasury yield dipped a smooth 0.7% to stick at 4.0%, stepping back from recent peaks as everyone held out for Friday's late September inflation tea. Pullback signaled some muscle swerving back pre-inflation scoop, but yields are still flexing high compared to lately.

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView

The USD was out here with some mixed dance moves all Monday sesh, ending it kinda in the green against big-name currencies.

During the Asian hours, the US buck was kinda low against the majors, maybe 'cause of China’s surprise GDP glow-up and banging industrial production stats. 💥 This fuels risk thirst and pops off commodity-linked currencies. New Zealand's inflation tea hitting the RBNZ sweet spot added some oomph to the Kiwi during early trading. 🌏

London's AM sesh switched up the groove, with the dollar bouncing back with a bullish hint. This change-up could be traders fading that China data glow, stressing over China’s 'meh' property feels and asset shrink drama. 😬

In the US zone, dolla' bills had wavy patterns, dipping first then catching a minor bounce pre-close. It wrapped up Monday with a mixed moment against the majors, probs on a slight bullish tilt. The buck showed toughness despite Fed cut hopes, so seems like global growthish headaches and fiscal stress in other zones are keeping the dollar kinda poppin'. 💪

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

  • New Zealand Balance of Trade for September 2025 at 9:45 pm GMT
  • Australia RBA Jones Speech at 11:45 pm GMT
  • New Zealand Credit Card Spending for September 2025 at 2:00 am GMT
  • Japan BoJ Himino Speech at 4:20 am GMT
  • Swiss Balance of Trade for September 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
  • U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks for September 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
  • Euro area ECB Lane Speech at 7:00 am GMT
  • Euro area ECB President Lagarde Speech at 11:00 am GMT
  • New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index for October 21, 2025
  • Canada Consumer Price Index Growth Rate for September 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
  • U.S. Fed Waller Speech at 1:00 pm GMT
  • U.S. API Crude Oil Stock Change for October 17, 2025 at 8:30 pm GMT
  • Japan Balance of Trade for September 2025 at 11:50 pm GMT

Tuesday’s lineup is lookin' spicy with events that'll move markets, with Canada’s September CPI data stealing the spotlight after Bank of Canada's chillaxed quarterly surveys made a rate chop kinda likely at October 29 meeting. Traders gonna scope if inflation’s still tame enough for more chill rates, with the market betting big on a 25 basis point drop. 📉

No cap, US-China talks are still the tea everyone wants, with Treas Sec Scott Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng meeting up in Malaysia before the Trump-Xi summit. Trump’s lowkey suggestin’ he might ditch some tariffs if sparks fly, lifting market spirits, though he’s still warning that tariffs will stack up if no deal by Nov 1, which has some sus vibes. 📅

The US shutdown drama is still casting shadows, but Hassett’s glimmer of hope that a resolution might drop this week is sprinkling some optimism. But still, the data tea drop like Friday’s postponed September CPI is a juicy nugget for Fed vibes.

Central bank chatter from ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, along with the Fed's Waller and various Reserve Bank peeps, could drop some spicy policy deets as markets navigate cooling inflation, mild growth, and edgy geo-stress. ⚡️

Stay icy forex fam, and don’t forget to hit up our Forex Correlation Calculator when making those trades! 💸🚀