This article has been translated from English to Gen Z Slang.

Yo, all the big assets went full send into risk-on mode after some weak U.S. jobless claims came in hot, flipping the script on those spicy CPI numbers and sealing the deal on those Fed rate cut vibes. 📉

Stocks hit record highs, bonds chilled as yields took a dive, and the dollar took an L as traders got ready for more Fed tea spillin'. 📈💸

Peeps, don’t snooze on the new trading session tea and updates you might’ve missed! 👀

Hot Goss:

  • New Zealand Factory Sales Q2 2025: -0.6% y/y (was supposed to be 4.5% y/y; was 10.0% y/y before)
  • U.K. BRC Retail Vibes for August: 2.9% y/y (1.6% was the goal; 1.8% y/y was last time)
  • U.S. API Oil Stock Numbers for September 5, 2025: 1.25M (used to be 0.62M)
  • New Zealand Guests Arriving July: 6.6% y/y (forecast was 2.5% y/y; it was 0.8% before)
  • U.K. RICS House Prices for August: -19.0% (thought it’d be -13.0%; it was -13.0% before)
  • Japan’s Big Factory Numbers for September 30, 2025: 3.8% q/q (predicted 3.5% q/q; last time -4.8% q/q)
  • Japan Price Tag Growth Rate for August: -0.2% m/m (expectations were 0.1% m/m; prior was 0.2% m/m); 2.7% y/y (expected 2.8% y/y; was 2.6% before)
  • Auzy Vibes on Consumer Inflation for September: 4.7% (expecting 3.9%; last was 3.9%)
  • International Energy Tea (IEA) sees extra oil stacking up for 2025 post OPEC+ pump boost
  • Eurozone ECB Rate Call for September 11, 2025: 2.15% (that was the tea; matched gossip)
  • US Jobless Claims on September 6, 2025: 263.0k (expected 240.0k; was 237.0k last)
  • U.S. Price Levels for August: 0.4% m/m (figured 0.3% m/m; previously 0.2% m/m); 2.9% y/y (2.8% was the idea; 2.7% y/y was last)
    • U.S. Core Prices for August: 3.1% y/y (right on the money at 3.1% y/y; same as last); 0.3% m/m (spot on forecast and past)
  • ECB’s Main Squeeze Christine Lagarde said they’re vibing “in a good place,” but will play it cool, checking data down to the last deet before any rate path commitment
  • IMF said the Fed has room to "slow down a bit" with rate drops
  • Prez Trump asked the court to put the kibosh on blocking the booting of FOMC buddy Cook

Big Market Moves:

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

The major players in the market switched up on Thursday after some meh U.S. job stats outshined higher-than-expected inflation reads, locking in those Fed rate cuts and pushing major U.S. stocks to fresh highs. 🚀

Everything turned around when jobless claims hit 263,000, like the most since October 2021, creating enough buzz to drive the S&P 500 up by 0.9% and the Dow Jones by 1.4%. Japan’s Nikkei kept the party going, rising 1.1% to another record level with regional optimism all around. European stocks vibed with the ECB’s steady moves, upping 0.3-0.8% as Lagarde balanced her talk. 🇯🇵🇪🇺

Treasury yields followed the chill vibes, with the 10-year taking a quick dip below 4.00% before floating at 4.02%. Gold surprisingly slid to $3,635 despite the dove-like Fed mood, while bitcoin held its ground at $114,500. WTI crude dropped 2% to $62.30 as the International Energy Agency ramped up supply guesses, overshadowing any excitement from potential rate cuts. 📉

FX Scene: USD vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Majors

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView

The dollar was kinda defensive in Asian hours, but vibes got better, and then it tried to hold up during early European market hours. Everyone was waiting for the big U.S. releases. The ECB chill on rates did help the euro a bit, though most big currencies just chilled in a range until the U.S. inflation and jobless info came out.

Things flipped after those U.S. updates. The wild jobless numbers hit and the dollar weakened even though inflation went a bit above expectations at 0.4% monthly. The dollar’s drop picked up speed in the U.S. session as peeps fully worked out three quarter-point Fed cuts for year-end, pushing the euro past key levels while commodity currencies rose on new policy feels.💡🌍

The Aussie dollar was crushing it, hitting highs not seen since November 2024 as it was just tagging along with dollar softness and good risk-off moods. The pound and yen also made moves on the dollar, though the yen still brought up the rear among the big dogs. By end of play, the dollar was looking weak across the map, reflecting everyone’s views that the Fed’s cut scene was on point and hard while other banks just wrapped up their interest dramas. 💪💸

Coming Up on the Eco-Calendar:

  • Japan Capacity Vibes for July at 4:30 am GMT
  • Japan Big Factory Output Final for July at 4:30 am GMT
  • Germany Price Hike Final for August at 6:00 am GMT
  • U.K. GDP for July at 6:00 am GMT
  • U.K. Trade Balance for July at 6:00 am GMT
  • U.K. Factory & Industrial Production for July at 6:00 am GMT
  • U.K. Build Scene for July at 6:00 am GMT
  • Germany Bundesbank Nagel Vibes Speech at 8:15 am GMT
  • U.K. NIESR Monthly GDP Hack for August at 11:00 am GMT
  • Canada Construct Permits for July at 12:30 pm GMT
  • Canada Capacity Utilization Q2 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
  • U.S. UoM Consumer Mood & Price Vibes for September at 2:00 pm GMT

Looks like the market is gonna be lit 🔥 with loads of data coming in hot—U.K. GDP and manufacturing stats might test if Sterling can hold onto the dollar slips from yesterday. 🏴

In the U.S., focus is on that UoM sentiment. Yesterday’s inflation mixed with jobless claims at a near four-year high challenges Fed rate cut pricing, bringing the dollar to 2025 lows against other currencies. 📊

As always, keep an eye on those global trade action and headline drama that could switch up the market feels. Stay sharp and check out our Forex Vibe Calculator when making any moves! 🚀💬