This article has been translated from English to Gen Z Slang.
Markets kicked off the week on a major vibe check as trade optimism sent everyone into a frenzy, sending U.S. stocks to new heights. 🚀
With major data and central bank gossip up next, traders couldn't wait to shuffle their moves in anticipation of more drama-filled rate cuts. 😎
Missed the action? No worries, here's what went down in the last trading sessions! 🤓
Headlines:
- U.S. and Canada are back to chat after Canada ditched its Digital Services Tax
- Treasury Secretary Bessent spilled some tea that the new Fed Chair might pop in as soon as January
- Japan's industrial production preview for May: 0.5% m/m (0.4% m/m forecast; -1.1% m/m previous); -1.8% y/y (0.3% y/y forecast; 0.5% y/y previous)
- New Zealand ANZ business confidence for June: 46.3 (45.0 forecast; 36.6 previous)
- Australia TD-MI inflation gauge for June: 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; -0.4% m/m previous)
- China's NBS manufacturing PMI for June: 49.7 (50.0 forecast; 49.5 previous); Non-manufacturing PMI at 50.5 (50.5 forecast; 50.3 previous)
- Germany's retail sales for May: -1.6% m/m (0.5% m/m forecast; -1.1% m/m previous); 1.6% y/y (2.5% y/y forecast; 2.3% y/y previous)
- UK GDP growth rate final for Q1 2025: 1.3% y/y (1.3% y/y forecast; 1.5% y/y previous); 0.7% q/q (0.7% q/q forecast; 0.1% q/q previous)
- Swiss KOF leading indicators for June: 96.1 (100.0 forecast; 98.5 previous)
- UK mortgage approvals for May: 63.03k (60.1k forecast; 60.46k previous)
- UK net lending to individuals for May: 2.9B (3.5B forecast; 0.82B previous)
- Germany consumer price index preview for June: 2.0% y/y (2.2% y/y forecast; 2.1% y/y previous); 0.0% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous)
- ECB President Lagarde warned of a sketchy future leading to more wild inflation swings
- Goldman Sachs preponed Fed rate cut forecast from December to September 'cause tariff and job vibes weren't hitting
- U.S. Chicago PMI for June: 40.4 (44.0 forecast; 40.5 previous)
- U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index for June: -12.7 (-10.0 forecast; -15.3 previous)
- U.S. President Trump renewed the rate cut hype saying, “We should be at 1% interest, or better!”
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
The week started off LIT for risky assets as trade vibes took center stage. 🔥
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit some fresh records, rising about 0.5%, while the Dow picked up 0.6%, getting closer to some big numbers. The buzz skyrocketed after Canada was like, “nah” to the digital services tax, which gave trade talks a green light ahead of the big July 9 tariff showdown.
Meanwhile, Europe wasn't as hyped. Stocks were all over the place 'cause of month-end tweaking and the Trump tariffs saga. On the flip, gold shined due to a weak dollar vibe, rocketing from $3,250 to above $3,300. Trump's call for 1% interest rates and Goldman Sachs backing a September rate cut made the dollar look weak. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to a two-month low of 4.23% as the chatter for cuts got louder.
Crude oil chilled a bit, with WTI landing at $64.90—even though it's up for the month. Traders seemed a bit unsure after seeing China's PMI giving off mixed signals about demand. Bitcoin wasn’t feeling the vibe either, sliding from $108,800 to around $107,200, kinda doing its own thing against the overall risk-on mood.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The U.S. dollar took a big L on Monday, marking its sixth straight monthly decline, all thanks to Trump's extra pushy monetary demands. 💸 USD/JPY led the tumble town, dropping from 144.10 to 143.80 even though Japan had some meh industrial vibes and China's data was all over the place, showing manufacturing barely hanging in there while services fell flat. 🫠
Initially, the Greenback dipped in Asia after Canada's epic weekend move to scrap its digital services tax eased some trade beef. A tiny break happened when London kicked in due to month-end money shuffles, U.K.'s final GDP vibes, and some fears about looming tariffs before July 9. But, peace was short-lived as the US crowd clocked in, bringing a fresh round of sell pressure. 📉
EUR/USD flew past 1.17 to see almost four-year highs after Trump ramped up his Fed roasts, demanding those 1% interest rates and calling Powell's crew a flop. Things heated up when Goldman Sachs changed their Fed cut timing from December to September, and sweet German retail numbers barely scratched euro strength. Sterling and the commodity squad seized the dollar downfall, pushing the DXY to 96.80.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- U.K. Nationwide housing prices for June at 6:00 am GMT
- Australia commodity prices for June at 6:30 am GMT
- Swiss retail sales for May at 6:30 am GMT
- Swiss procure.ch manufacturing PMI for June at 7:30 am GMT
- Germany unemployment rate for June at 7:55 am GMT
- Germany HCOB manufacturing PMI final for June at 7:55 am GMT
- Euro area HCOB manufacturing PMI final for June at 8:00 am GMT
- U.K. S&P Global manufacturing PMI final for June at 8:30 am GMT
- Euro area CPI growth rate flash for June at 9:00 am GMT
- ECB Schnabel speech at 10:40 am GMT
- ECB forum on central banking
- ECB President Lagarde speech at 1:30 pm GMT
- U.K. BOE Gov Bailey speech at 1:30 pm GMT
- Japan BOJ Gov Ueda speech at 1:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Chair Powell speech at 1:30 pm GMT
- U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI final for June at 1:45 pm GMT
- U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for June at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. JOLTs job openings & quits for May at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Dallas Fed services index for June at 2:30 pm GMT
- U.S. API crude oil stock change for June 27 at 8:30 pm GMT
- Australia AIG manufacturing index for June at 11:00 pm GMT
Traders, it's about to get hectic with loads of top-tier and mid-range action coming up. We've got euro area CPI, German job and PMI vibes that could shake up ECB cut expectations. With Lagarde and Schnabel speaking, the euro might get a bit jumpy. 🤾♂️
In the States, all eyes on Powell, ISM manufacturing PMI, and JOLTs ’cause they could totally flip the Fed narrative and stir up dollar and risk moves. 👀
Also, keep it locked on any updates regarding the U.S. tax bill, trade chat, and fresh rate cut calls which could send risk and dollar sentiments on a wild ride! 🎢
Stay on your toes, and don't forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator before jumping into any trades! 😉
