This article has been translated from English to Gen Z Slang.
Yo, markets were wildin' on Wednesday as new GDP and inflation tea clashed with a totally hawkish Fed move and Powell's press party. 😅
Traders went all in, yeeting currencies, equities, and commodities around as their dreams of rate cuts got majorly ghosted. 💔
Check out some headlines you might have low-key missed in the last trading sesh! 👀
Headlines:
- AUD straight up nosedives after Aussie Q2 2025 CPI doesn't pass vibe check, triggering RBA rate cut expectations
- New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence for July 2025: 47.8 (48.0 vibe; 46.3 previous mood)
- France GDP for Q2 2025 had a mini glow-up: 0.3% q/q (0.2% forecast; 0.1% previous); 0.7% y/y (0.6% forecast; 0.6% last check)
- Swiss KOF leading indicators for July 2025 are popping off: 101.1 (96.5 expected; 96.1 last time)
- Germany pulling a -0.1% tax avoidance on GDP for Q2 2025 (0.1% was the goal; 0.4% was previous); 0.4% y/y came through (0.1% was expected, lol)
- Euro Area inflation expectations are going brrr for July: 25.1 (20.0 was predicted; 21.2 last round)
- Euro Area price expectations up for July 2025: 9.2 (6.0 predicted; 5.6 last time)
- Euro Area GDP flash for Q2 2025 was chill: 0.1% q/q (0.1% was the plan; 0.6% before); 1.4% y/y (1.2% expected; 1.5% previous)
- U.S. ADP nailed it with 104.0k jobs in July (20.0k forecast; -33.0k previous)
- U.S. advance core PCE prices for Q2 2025 did a little dip: 2.5% q/q (2.8% was the hope; 3.5% prior scene)
- U.S. advance GDP price index for Q2 2025 chillin' at 2.0% q/q (2.8% was a goal; 3.8% last track)
- The U.S. advance GDP out here flexing for Q2 2025: 3.0% q/q (2.5% was guessed; -0.5% before)
- BOC holding it down at 2.75% but inflation and trade risks bring some serious side-eye to the outlook 🤔
- USD flexing hard post-July FOMC, Powell thinks inflation ain't here to stay 💪
- U.S. pending home sales for June 2025 yeeted outta there: -0.8% m/m (0.5% was target; 1.8% before); -2.8% y/y (1.5% vibe check off; 1.1% previously)
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Main players were crazy all over Wednesday as traders flexed on better-than-expected stats and the Fed's hella hawkish no-move. 🕺 Euro Area's Q2 GDP came through just 0.1% thicker, barely beating flatline. France brought the GDP heat at 0.3%, saving Germany's lil' dip of -0.1%. U.S. GDP got all spicy, spiking 3.0% annualized compared to the 2.5% forecast, but a lot of that was decoded from un-stacking import distortions linked to Q1 tariffs.
Euro stocks were totally a vibe, barely up, with the Stoxx 600 bouncing a chill 0.12%. Across the pond, Wall Street had major FOMO, chillin' most of the day before going all hodgepodge. The S&P 500 slid 0.12%, Dow took a -0.38% nap, while Nasdaq squeezed in a tiny 0.15% grin. 😏
Commodities were kinda shook, gold got no chill, dropping 0.85% to $3,275 as the dollar did its thang after the Fed kept rates stable. The spiciest detail was the rare dissent hot take from both Governors Bowman and Waller. Powell's press chat put a chill on September rate cut dreams, with odds dropping from 68% to under 50%. Bond yields crawled up, with the 10-year moving 4.6 basis points to 4.37%. 😬
Oil continues its glow-up for four days straight. WTI climbed to $70.30, fueled by global trade drama and fears that Trump might start flexing new sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, Bitcoin kept it low-key, closing just minimally lower at $117,400. 🚀
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The USD started Wednesday with a major side-eye, keeping it low-key as cautious vibes ran the early hours, sliding lower against most majors during the Asian hangout. 🤷♂️
The Greenback got its groove back a few hours into the Europe scene, gaining ground when Euro Area had mixed GDP vibes, probably 'cause traders wanted to get their ducks in a row before the FOMC tea party.
Dollar's gains got a boost as New York scene went down after ADP employment data showed private payrolls glowed up 104,000 versus the 78,000 expected, while advanced GDP jumped 3.0% annualized compared with the 2.5% forecast, even though tariff memes distorted the headlines. 💥
The dollar saw tiny breathers ahead of the FOMC drop, but after the Fed decided to vibe check and hold rates at 4.25%-4.50% despite the Governors Bowman and Waller's side-eye. Powell hit the press stage, chillin' any September cuts, saying the labor market's still "solid" and inflation's still hangin'. He even spilled that they’d peep two more inflation and jobs teas before the Sept. meet, which could stir the pot. 💬
September chill ideas plummeted from 68% to below 50%, pumping the Dollar Index a whole 1% to a two-month high. The Greenback flexed harder against all major currencies, with gains ranging from 0.50% to 1.20%. 😎
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Japan housing starts for June at 5:00 am GMT
- Japan consumer confidence for July at 5:00 am GMT
- Germany import price index for June at 6:00 am GMT
- Swiss retail sales for June at 6:30 am GMT
- France PPI for June at 6:45 am GMT
- France harmonised inflation rate prel for July at 6:45 am GMT
- Germany unemployment change for July at 7:55 am GMT
- U.S. Challenger job cuts for July at 11:30 am GMT
- Germany harmonised inflation rate prel for July at 12:00 pm GMT
- Canada GDP (preliminary) for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada GDP for May at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. employment cost index for June 30 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. initial jobless claims for July 26 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. core PCE price index for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. personal income for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. personal spending for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Chicago PMI for July at 1:45 pm GMT
- New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence for July at 10:00 pm GMT
- New Zealand building permits for June at 10:45 pm GMT
- Australia S&P Global manufacturing PMI final for July at 11:00 pm GMT
- Japan unemployment rate for June at 11:30 pm GMT
Yo, traders are in for a packed sesh with some major data bombs about to drop. During London hours, Euro Area inflation and labor stats could shake EUR and CHF if inflation gets all spicy. 🌶️
Stateside, eyes gonna be glued on some mega inflation and jobs numbers, with core PCE and jobless claims in the lead. 🎯 These could mess with Fed memes and spark some moves in USD and CAD. And keep an ear out for any new gossip on global trade. A surprise headline could totally flip risk vibes on its head! 💥
Stay alert and don't forget to peep our Forex Correlation Calculator when you're trading those moves! 🚀
