Fin & Forex Market TL;DR: Jan. 22, 2026

Markets totally vibed on Thursday as the drama level dropped after Prez Trump bailed on those sketchy tariffs for our Euro homies, 🚫🛒 while the US flexed with some solid economic stats, keeping the Fed chill with its moves. 💪💰

Peep the forex news and tea you didn't catch in yesterday's trading sesh! 🔍💸

Forex News Headlines & Data:

• New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending for Dec 2025: -1.0% y/y (1.8% y/y forecast; 1.6% y/y previous)
• New Zealand Visitor Arrivals for Nov 2025: 8.2% y/y (4.0% y/y forecast; 9.4% y/y previous)
• Japan Balance of Trade for Dec 2025: 105.7B (-400.0B forecast; 322.2B previous)
• Australia Employment Change for Dec 2025: 65.2k (40.0k forecast; -21.3k previous)
  • Australia Unemployment Rate for Dec 2025: 4.1% (4.4% forecast; 4.3% previous)
• Canada CFIB Business Barometer for Jan 2026: 59.5 (59.5 forecast; 59.9 previous)
• Canada New Housing Price Index for Dec 2025: -0.2% m/m (0.1% m/m forecast; 0.0% m/m previous)
• U.S. GDP Growth Rate for Sep 30, 2025: 4.4% q/q (4.3% q/q forecast; 3.8% q/q previous)
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for Jan 17, 2026: 200.0k (195.0k forecast; 198.0k previous)
• Euro area Consumer Confidence Flash for Jan 2026: -12.4 (-13.6 forecast; -13.1 previous)
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index for Nov 2025: 0.2% m/m (0.1% m/m forecast; 0.2% m/m previous); 2.8% y/y (2.7% y/y forecast; 2.7% y/y previous)
• U.S. Personal Income for Nov 2025: 0.3% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous)
• U.S. Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index for Jan 2026: -2.0 (5.0 forecast; -3.0 previous)
• EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for Jan 16, 2026: 3.6M (3.39M previous)

Broad Market Price Action:

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Thursday’s sesh was all about the risk-on vibes as Trump’s tariff U-turn lifted the mood across the globe, 📈 while solid US stats showed the economy's still defo holding its spot despite those inflation numbers. 💥

Gold went boom, popping up 1.89% to finish near $4,923 per ounce. This shiny thing's been on a streak, hitting all-time highs, reaching $4,888 just a few days ago when Greenland drama was hitting peak levels. 🏔️ Its continuing ascent amidst stable-ish geopolitical vibes suggests there’s still a hot demand for safe bets, vibes over fiscal policy drama, and moves before the Bank of Japan’s big meeting on Friday. Gold staying strong while stocks are having their moment means big money might be shuffling and diversifying portfolios. 💼✨

The S&P 500 flexed gains of 0.38%, wrapping up near 6,909, bouncing back from some earlier hiccups as traders warmed up to the cooling of those transatlantic beefs. The index started with a cheeky lil’ jump thanks to Trump's surprise NATO deal about Arctic stuff, then kept it chill during Asian and London times near 6,900. Post the morning US stat drop—showing gangbuster GDP growth and same-same PCE inflation—it slipped a bit before finding its footing and climbed throughout lunch hours. Tech giants led the charge, with AI-linked stocks pulling some serious weight. Big-time win for small-cap stocks, sporting their longest streak of gains against the big bois, hinting at expectations of potentially easier loans and open roads for growth at the smaller companies. 💹​

Bitcoin took a nosedive of 0.82%, chilling near $89,443. Not really charming the crowd even with markets overall vibing. ☹️ BTC was on a seesaw, leaning towards the negatives through Asia and London before tumbling further post-US numbers drop. It hit lows around $88,400 before catching some lift back up by the US afternoon. This crypto-trouble might be from some money-grabbing after recent highs or something to do with concerns that the US's robust economic chatter might be saying "gonna stay high-for-long," keeping the dollar buyers away from crypto that doesn’t pay a yield. 📉💔

WTI crude oil slipped 1.80%, settling near $59.36 per barrel, continuing yesterday’s slide. Word on the street is that talks are on between Ukraine and Russia about a peace plan. Major points on a 20-point peace treaty are almost done, maybe just waiting for Trump and Russia to sign off. Potential vibes for cheaper prices might be due to fewer geopolitical risks and Russia possibly opening the oil tap wider if sanctions get a bye-bye. Plus, a surprise 3.6 million barrel build in oil stocks wasn’t helping the oil story today. 🛢️🤕

Treasury yields moved up 0.05%, hitting around 4.20%, with the 10-year boi showing some slight upward action for most of the session. 🏦 Yields mostly played it cool during Asia before waking up and climbing a bit after the 8:30 AM ET US stats. That uptick might be markets saying, "Hey, solid GDP and sticky kinda low core inflation are giving the Fed a reason to chill on cutting rates." The two-year yields were on a bit more of a climb, making things curl upwards as folks pushed back on immediate Fed easing hopes. Rate cut whispers for the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are still low-key minimal. 📈

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FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Forex Chart by TradingView

The US dollar got dragged on Thursday, ranking second as the least liked major currency, only really managing to edge out the Japanese yen by a hair. Traders ditched it after simmering down those global beefs and munching on juicy US economic bites. 📉🍴

During the Asian sesh, the dollar had a cute lil' bullish moment thanks to Trump’s late-night NATO hookup about Greenland, easing asset fear trips. But it hit a ceiling and slumped mid-morning Asia style, maybe vibing off friendlier risk appetites as transatlantic stress levels dipped. Australia's smashing employment stats, with 65k jobs popping up versus a 40k bet and unemployment sinking to 4.1% from 4.3%, probably gave the Aussie dollar some glossier shine, making it the star of the show. 🇦🇺💅

The London sesh kept the dollar on its loser path despite Europe being all over the place with their data. UK CBI Trades were less tragic at -17 against a -57 guess, perking the pound up a tad. Eurozone Confidence also perked up better than expected to -12.4 from -13.1. But these Euro data nuggets couldn’t halt the dollar’s continued fall, spiraling down throughout Europe’s AM. This relentless dip suggested de-escalation 🎭 was the main driver, as traders pushed back from safe-haven setups formed during the Greenland drama days.💶

The US sesh saw the dollar diving deeper post the 8:30 am ET stat drop, even though the surface numbers kinda wanted to help. The Q3 GDP pump-up to 4.4% versus a 4.3% hunch and PCE inflation holding its ground didn’t really flip the negative dollar mood. Plus, initial jobless claims landing 200k, topping a 195k bet, hinted at a slight market slowdown. The dollar kept getting shaded, crashing through the late morning into the PM’s close. This vibe reflected shifts as markers priced in less geopolitical drama plus strong US growth data. 📉🔍

At Thursday’s last bell, the US dollar fell behind against all major currencies except the yen, snagging only a 0.10% gain. This general USD shade seemed like a blend of stepping back from safe spots after Trump's tariff flip-flop, strong commodity currency lights, and precog market motives ahead of the BoJ’s rate talk early Friday, which might amp up yen drama and dollar slippage if BoJ goes for a bold hike. 📉🕐

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• New Zealand CPI Growth Rate for Dec 31, 2025 at 9:45 pm GMT
• Australia S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for Jan 2026 at 10:00 pm GMT
• Japan CPI Growth Rate for Dec 2025 at 11:30 pm GMT
• U.K. Gfk Consumer Confidence for Jan 2026 at 12:01 am GMT
• Japan S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for Jan 2026 at 12:30 am GMT
• Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision for Jan 23, 2026 at 3:00 am GMT
• U.K. Retail Sales for Dec 2025 at 7:00 am GMT
• Euro area HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for Jan 2026 at 9:00 am GMT
• U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for Jan 2026 at 9:30 am GMT
• U.K. BoE Greene Speech at 9:30 am GMT
• European Central Bank President Lagarde Speech at 10:00 am GMT
• Canada Retail Sales Prel for Dec 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
• U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for Jan 2026 at 2:45 pm GMT
• U.S. CB Leading Index for Nov 2025
• U.S. UoM Consumer Sentiment Index for Jan 2026 at 3:00 pm GMT

Friday’s lineup is all about the BoJ’s super-anticipated policy drop at 3:00 am GMT, where everyone's eagerly biting their nails for a confirmed rate hike plus extra insights on future policy vibes. Japanese CPI stats dropping right before them at 11:30 pm GMT Thursday gonna give all the spicy deets ahead of BoJ's brain picks, as trend watching in inflation could flavor the central bank’s upcoming convo. 📊🇯🇵

In Europe hours, UK retail sales at 7:00 am GMT are up to reveal consumer chill levels heading into 2026, crucial post recent rate chops by the Bank of England. That loaded volley of flash PMI marks from euro area and UK at 9:00 am and 9:30 am GMT will cough up Jan insights on manufacturing and services steam, with many eyes watching if the soft econ patch is gaining grip or losing more groove. 🏗️💶

The US shifts focus to Canada’s early-retailer numbers slap at 1:30 pm GMT aligned with backup U.S. PMI marks for Jan at 2:45 pm GMT, which will hint whether US engine continues into the fresh year. The UoM consumer spirit scan at 3:00 pm GMT goes under the magnifier for any inflation forecast switch-ups which could sway Federal Reserve pros just before next week’s FOMC summit on Jan 27-28. 🗳️🤔

With every central bank jiggle, economic pulse check, and inflation forecasts in every other convo, Friday carves out what’s bound to be a rollercoaster start for the upcoming FOMC showdown next week.