Daily Vibe Check on the Market – Nov 13, 2025

Yo fam, the markets took a nosedive on Thursday. The Fed guys were out here hard no-ing on December rate cuts, leaving the dollar like 🤷, even after the government shutdown wrapped up. Everything from equities to crypto was in freefall, kinda like me tryin’ to balance on a hoverboard. 😂

Catch up on the forex tea and econ updates you prob slep' on during the latest trading sesh! 👀

Forex News Headlines & Data:

• U.S. government shutdown over, finally! 🎉 Took 43 days and a Trump signature, but we still got data delays, bruh. 📉
• New Zealand’s Electronic Card Retail Sales for October 2025 came thru at 0.2% m/m. 👀 Forecast was 0.4% m/m but last time was at -0.5% m/m. 📈
  Their Visitor Arrivals for September 2025 popped off 9.6% y/y vs. a 3.6% y/y forecast, compared to 7.5% y/y last time. ✈️
• Japan’s PPI 💹 for October 2025: 2.7% y/y keeping it 100 with the previous; forecast flexed at 2.4% y/y. And 0.4% m/m on the real (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.3% m/m last time).
• Aussie Consumer Inflation Expectations for November 2025 got steady at 4.5%, matching forecast while last time was chillin’ at 4.8%. 🇦🇺💸
• Australia’s Employment Change for October 2025? Blew past with 42.2k job adds (Yo, forecast was at 20.0k; previous clutched at 14.9k).
  • Unemployment Rate is now 4.3%. Forecast was thinkin' 4.4%, but we really sheddin’ off these unemployment digits lately. 🙌
• UK GDP for September 2025? We got 1.1% y/y, calling the forecast but had 1.3% y/y rolling last month. M/m dipped -0.1%, forecast thought it’d stay +0.1%. 🏴
• Goods Trade Balance Non-EU for September 2025 sits at -6.82B. Had forecast -7.7B, previous was savage at -8.29B.
• Industrial Production dropped -2.0% m/m; forecast said -0.1%, last time was up 0.4% m/m. And it went -2.5% y/y (expected -1.0% y/y; -0.7% y/y last time).
• Manufacturing Production? -2.2% y/y (expected to hold at -0.9% y/y); dipped -1.7% m/m (forecast dialed -0.4% m/m; previous was 0.7% m/m).
• Swiss Producer & Import Prices for October 2025? We’re clocking -1.7% y/y (forecasted -1.8% y/y; same with previous); holding -0.3% m/m, like they saw. 🇨🇭😂
• China’s Outstanding Loan Growth for October 2025 at 6.5% y/y. Missed that 6.4% y/y forecast, but last time rolled 6.6% y/y!
  • China’s New Loans for October 2025: It’s 220.0B fam (550.0B whatchu forecastin; previous seein 1,290.0B)
  • M2 Money Supply for China in October 2025 hit 8.2% (forecast was woke, same with previous at 8.4%). 🧐
• Eurozone Industrial Production for September 2025: 0.2% m/m (called 0.5% m/m; previously was takin’ a hit at -1.2% m/m); 1.2% y/y (shy of 1.4% y/y hype; previous was vibin’ at 1.1% y/y).
• Fed Bank Prez Neel Kashkari said he wasn’t feeling their last rate cut—it’s a pass from him. 🙅‍♂️💸
• On Thurs, Fed’s Musalem said peeps gotta chill with them rate cuts. Slow and steady is the vibe. 🐢
• Boston Fed’s Collins is like, “Lol jk, more cuts aren’t a vibe,” blaming high inflation and tariff probs. 😬

Broad Market Price Action:

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Forex Chart by TradingView

Thursday came in clutch, with a plot twist risk reversal. 🤯 Fed hawks squashed December rate cut dreams. Even the official reopening couldn’t save the day. 🤦‍♂️

The S&P 500 nosedived 1.54%, ending up at 6,743.6. 🌊 November’s gains? Gone. Tech stocks got caught in the sell tornado, cuz hawkish Fed vibes were strong. 👀 Fed dudes Kashkari and Musalem hollered to slow the cuts, and Kashkari even spilt tea on not vibing with October’s cut. Steam picked up as traders ditched overpriced tech, worryin’ about delayed cuts in this climate. 💸

Gold tried to flex early gains, but fell with the pack in the U.S. session. It rallied from London open till mid-U.S. sesh but couldn’t escape the losses even though the dollar was chillin’. No obvious reasons, might just be profit pocketing after its epic comeback from under $4,000 to $4,250. 🪙

WTI crude oil was doin’ the flat thing during Asia hours, then skyrocketed in London, probably ‘cause the gov shutdown resolution gave some clarity to the scene. 🎢 Later, it retraced a bit during the U.S. sesh, but still stayed positive, riding on that good vibe from London gains. 🔥

Bitcoin took a major L, crashing 3.13% to close at $98,705.6. 💀 Dipped below the $100,000 line fast and furious. It was chillin’ with slight volatility in Asia, started the plunge from the London open, and went full tilt during the U.S. trading. The dip seems to mix hawkish Fed vibes, and traders following downtrend buzz since it touched over $126,000 in early October. 🌊🤔

The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 1.03% to 4.104%. 🚀 It rose consistently thru the sesh as the reopening shook off some uncertainty, though data release doubts were still lingering. Bond yields were unfazed by weak UK data and chill Bank of England vibes, signaling that U.S.-spec goods outshone; hawkish Fed vibes and gov reopening were trading leads. 💹🇺🇸

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Forex Chart by TradingView

On Thursday, the U.S. dollar played the mixed game against major currencies, losing the edge despite bounce attempts. The clash of reopening hopes, data delay drama, and the high-key central bank narratives were in full effect. 🌐💸

In the Asian sesh, the dollar was vibin’ with low volatility, trading mostly gains against majors. The US government reopening gave it a lil’ boost, but delays in data drops kept it on a leash. 😬

Then in London time, the dollar stumbled against majors, showing a flicker of life before the U.S. opening bell rang. The initial dip seemed was in line with weaker UK data, surprise -0.1% monthly GDP and nose-diving industrial production. 📉 But really, it felt more like the "end of the shutdown" peace making rate cut dreams more plausible. 😎

During U.S. hours, the dollar was like a see-saw: starting weak, catching stability late afternoon. No biggie sparked the early dip, more London aftertaste, but stabilization synced with Fed pearls spilling from Kashkari and Musalem. 🗣️

Kashkari's "nah I ain’t feeling October's cut" revelation and Musalem urging caution kinda lifted the dollar spirits. But post-speeches, no momentum shift—still looking fragile in the face of data uncertainty. Traders seemed shook with concerns over what the delayed reports might reveal--especially any labor market soft spots screaming for ease. 💬

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• China House Price Index for October 2025 at 1:30 am GMT
• China Unemployment Rate for October 2025 at 2:00 am GMT
• China Retail Sales for October 2025 at 2:00 am GMT
• China Industrial Production for October 2025 at 2:00 am GMT
• China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) for October 2025 at 2:00 am GMT
• Germany Bundesbank Balz Speech at 7:15 am GMT
• France Inflation Rate Final for October 2025 at 7:45 am GMT
• Euro area GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est for September 30, 2025 at 10:00 am GMT
• Euro area Employment Change Prel for September 30, 2025 at 10:00 am GMT
• Euro area Trade Balance for September 2025 at 10:00 am GMT
• Euro area ECB Elderson Speech at 10:30 am GMT
• Euro area ECB Buch Speech at 11:00 am GMT
• Canada Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales Final for September 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
• Euro area ECB Elderson Speech at 1:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Schmid Speech at 3:05 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Logan Speech at 7:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Bostic Speech at 8:20 pm GMT

Now, we're all ears for Friday as China comes in with a fat stack of economic stats. Retail bling and production vibes will tell us if Beijing’s stimulus is more than just smoke and mirrors. 😎

Eurozone flash GDP and job digits could mess with ECB rate cut hot takes, considering the recent dovish coos from policy peeps. 📊

But wait, there’s more! Fed talks are the Friday headliners, with Schmid, Logan, and Bostic all stepping up to the mic. Will the vibes follow Kashkari & Musalem’s ‘cautious’ stance, crushing those rate cut fantasies and laying it heavy on risk assets? Only the words they flex will tell. 💬🔮

Any new deeds on data drop dates—especially those missing October CPI and jobs stats—could send waves as traders clutch pearls over the Fed’s data-driven decisions come December. 📈📉

With rate cuts odds teetering at 50-50 for December, any extra hawkish whispers could push us to “Nah, we good” status, maybe dragging Thursday’s stock and crypto woes into part deux, pushing the dollar up. 📈💵

Keep it cool, forex homies, and scope our Forex Correlation Calculator if you plan to dive into the risk pool! Splash wisely! 🤿💦