Daily Vibe Check on the Market – August 28, 2025

Yo fam, risk assets were vibin' on Thursday thanks to a lit combo of economic and earnings data, some spicy geopolitical drama, and moves ahead of Friday’s big US core PCE drop. 🔥

The dollar was lowkey weak, while stocks, gold, and bitcoin held their glow despite crazy world vibes. 😅

Here's how the major asset classes performed in the latest trading sessions! 🎉

Headlines:

• No chill: Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv sadly took out at least 19 ppl
• Australia's gadgets and gizmos fund (Q2 2025): 0.2% q/q (0.8% forecast, -0.1% last time)
• NZ biz vibes lit with ANZ biz confidence for August at 49.7 (49.0 forecast; 47.8 last time)
• Australia's building fund for Q2: 0.2% q/q (0.4% q/q forecast; 0.9% q/q last time)
• BOJ's Nakagawa was like "We hawkish," but warned the tariff sitch is still high-key messy
• Swiss GDP growth for Q2: 1.2% y/y (1.3% y/y forecast; 2.0% y/y last time); 0.1% q/q (0.1% q/q forecast; 0.5% q/q last go)
• Euro Area vibes for August were at 95.2 (96.0 forecast; 95.8 last feels)
  • Euro Area service vibes for August: 3.6 (4.5 forecast; 4.1 feels before)
  • Eurozone inflation expectations for August: 25.9 (29.0 forecast; 25.1 last reads)
  • Eurozone consumer vibes for August: -15.5 (-15.5 forecast; -14.7 feels last time)
  • Eurozone industrial vibes for August: -10.3 (-9.0 forecast; -10.4 feels last go)
• ECB August meeting minutes: Holding rates steady gives us more time to see how trade tea unfolds
• Canada's cash flow for Q2: -21.2B (-15.0B forecast; -2.1B prior)
• FOMC's Lisa Cook requested a judge to block Trump from booting her out temporarily
• U.S. initial jobless vibes from August 23: 229.0k (237.0k forecast; 235.0k last go)
• U.S. GDP groove rate 2nd call for Q2: 3.3% q/q (3.0% q/q forecast; -0.5% last time)
• U.S. GDP price bops 2nd est for Q2: 2.0% q/q (2.0% q/q forecast; 3.8% q/q prior)
• U.S. pending home jam for July: -0.4% m/m (-0.2% m/m forecast; -0.8% m/m last bop); 0.7% y/y (0.4% y/y forecast; -2.8% y/y prior)
• U.S. EIA natural gas switch for August 22: 18.0Bcf (13.0Bcf last go)
• U.S. Kansas Fed mfg vibes for August: 0.0 (-4.0 forecast; -3.0 last time)
• UK, France, Germany say "UN, do your sanctions thing" over Iran's nuclear flex
• EU wants to YOLO U.S. tariffs on goods if Washington backs down on car duties

Broad Market Moves:

Traders were on the grind with a mixtape of hints from earnings, data drops, and political tweets and GIFs poppin' off ahead of Friday’s inflation main event. 🎤

Wall Street was slayin', hitting new peaks despite Nvidia gaming news stressing us out with S&P 500 boppin' 0.3% and the Dow up 0.2%. While Nasdaq went up 0.5%, folks were hyped over Nvidia’s massive 56% dollars-in-the-bank moment, even though they iced out potential cash from China sales. 🤖🚀

Europe's lanes ended all over, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 fading 0.2%, UK’s FTSE 100 slipping 0.4%, Germany’s DAX staying on chill, but France’s CAC 40 gained 0.2% as traders lurked on tech cheat codes and data drops.

Gold glittered more at $3,415, boosted by Fed rate drop energy and political's tea while 10-year Treasury yields dipped to 4.21%, marking a hat-trick dip. 💰✨

Meanwhile, WTI Crude oil rose 0.65% to $64.30 as the Russia-Ukraine peacemaking fizzled with night headline bombs hitting 18 peeps. The U.S. gave India the side-eye with penalty tariffs 'cause of Russian oil. Bitcoin flexed up to $112,400, riding the weak dollar wave as papes started pricing a 87% chance of a September Fed rate cut. 🚀📉

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

The Greenback had a rough Thursday, drifting down against all major coins ‘cause peeps are hedging on a September money tweak. The Dollar started the day sus after NY Fed's Williams threw shade with a “live” September meeting, setting the markets on fire with thoughts of that cash ease. 💸

The dollar had a quick glow-up during early EU trading but then lost its vibe, probably ‘cause European traders were clutching their pearls ahead of Friday’s core PCE roadmap.

A quick comeback came in the US gig when GDP flexed a solid 3.3% annual swipe, above the 3.1% guesstimate, and jobless claims went low to 229,000 – better than forecasted 230,000. Yet, the dollar's mood switched again as Trump vs Fed drama cooled the chills, with the administration's pressure meaning a likely dove-song from the bank. 🕊️

The Dollar was on defense through London’s bell and into NYC’s evening, ending down mainly due to vibes shift. Swaps are betting an 87% chance of a quarter dip next month. Good moves incoming, stay tuned and get your popcorn. 🍿

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• Germany’s shopaholic stats for July at 6:00 am GMT 📅
• Germany’s import price rate chill for July at 6:00 am GMT 📈
• France's August inflation vibes prel (preliminary) at 6:45 am GMT 🎨
• France GDP glow-up final for Q2 2025 at 6:45 am GMT
• Germany job shuffles & vibes for August at 7:55 am GMT 👥
• Euro Area's ECB consumer prix feels for July at 8:00 am GMT 🛍️
• Eurozone ECB De Guindos spillin' some shots at 9:00 am GMT 🍵
• Germany's vibe-check on inflation prel for August at 12:00 pm GMT
• Canada's GDP gainz annual style for Q2 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. core PCE spotlight for July at 12:30 pm GMT
  • U.S. personal dough & spend for July at 12:30 pm GMT 💸
  • U.S. mystery inventories adv for July at 12:30 pm GMT 📦
  • U.S. goods trade gaps adv for July at 12:30 pm GMT 🌍
• U.S. Chicago PMI for August at 1:45 pm GMT 🏙️
• U.S. Michigan vibes quest final for August at 2:00 pm GMT
• U.S. UoM consumer calm meter for August at 2:00 pm GMT 📊
• Canada budget chillage for June at 3:00 pm GMT 🍁

Markets heading into a head-turner data day that’s gonna bring the wigglies for Euros and Dollar. London’s breaky sees German shopping, job, and inflation notes jam with French GDP and inflation, likely steering Euro feels ahead of ECB chats. 🍿

Stateside, it’s the core PCE jam that's the Fed's fave mood-check – could make or break them September money slice buzzes. Personal dough, spend sheets, trade stats, and Chi-town PMI follows, while feels on consumers, and Canada’s GDP outfit and cash chill will keep traders swiping on screens into the p.m. 🌐

As usual, keep an eye on worldwide hustle and drama headlines that could mess with the market vibe. Stay tricky and don’t forget to hit up our Forex Correlation Calculator when playing the currency games! 🤑