This article has been translated from English to Gen Z Slang.
Yo, the markets just straight-up launched the back half of the year with a whole snack of economic tea, political drama, and policy vibes that kept traders vibing and swiping. 🚀
From glow-up surprises in global PMIs to Powell's "yeah but nah" attitude and the oil drama, this session was full-on for those keeping tabs on central banks and the risk squad. 🤪
Here’s the 411 on some headlines that might've slid under your radar in the last trading sessions! 🔍
Headlines:
- New Zealand NZIER business mood for Q2: 22.0% (6.0% guessed; 19.0% before)
- Aus S&P Global manufacturing PMI final for June: 50.6 (51.0 guessed; 51.0 before)
- Japan Tankan big boys index for June 30: 13.0 (10.0 guessed; 12.0 before); Non-manufacturing index for June 30: 34.0 (34.0 guessed; 35.0 before)
- Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI final for June: 50.1 (50.4 guessed; 49.4 before)
- China Caixin manufacturing PMI for June: 50.4 (49.2 guessed; 48.3 before)
- Swiss procure.ch manufacturing PMI for June: 49.6 (43.8 guessed; 42.1 before)
- Germany no-work rate for June: 6.3% (6.3% guessed; 6.3% before)
- Germany HCOB manufacturing PMI final for June: 49.0 (49.0 guessed; 48.3 before)
- Euro Area ECB inflation vibes for May: 2.8% (3.2% guessed; 3.1% before)
- Euro Area HCOB manufacturing PMI final for June: 49.5 (49.4 guessed; 49.4 before)
- UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI final for June: 47.7 (47.7 guessed; 46.4 before)
- ECB member Luis de Guindos reckons EUR/USD leveling past 1.2000 is gonna be “tough”
- Fed Chair Powell ain't fully cancelling out rate cuts this month but thinks “let's chill and see” tariff moves
- Euro Area CPI growth rate flash for June: 2.0% y/y (2.0% y/y guessed; 1.9% y/y before); 0.3% m/m (0.3% m/m guessed; 0.0% m/m before)
- U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI final for June: 52.9 (52.0 guessed; 52.0 before)
- USD sneaked up as June ISM Manufacturing PMI showed slower shrinkage
- U.S. JOLTs job openings for May: 7.77M (7.1M guessed; 7.39M before)
- U.S. Dallas Fed service vibes for June: -4.4 (-9.0 guessed; -10.1 before)
- US Senate passes Trump’s huge tax and spending vibes bill, hyping up a House showdown
- API: U.S. crude stocks for the week ending June 27: +680K (-2.2M expected)
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
So, stocks were on a bit of a tour on Tuesday, as peeps ditched Big Tech for the OG cyclical crowd. The Dow said “howdy” with a 0.9% boost hitting a four-month high, but the Nasdaq wasn't as hype, sliding down by 0.8%. Europe's markets were basically a mood board. Germany’s DAX dipped 1% ’cause manufacturers felt queasy with that July 9 tariff vibe coming up, while the FTSE 100 in London went up a chill 0.3%. 😅
Gold was on its main character arc, jumping 1.3% to $3,340 as the dolla mellowed, and there was some lowkey panic dance going on over that massive $3.3 trillion fiscal saga just cleared by the U.S. Senate. Throw in Powell kinda not shutting down whispers of a rate cut in July, and gold was living its best life. Treasuries took it all chill, with 10-year yields sliding up to 4.25% after that job openings tea spilled better than expected at 7.77 million. 💰
Crude oil inched up by 0.5% to $65.50 ahead of the OPEC+ mixer this weekend where producers might drop more oil into the chat with a 411K barrels a day surprise. But Bitcoin seemed to miss the memo, slipping 2.1% to $105,600 as risk-off vibes hit the tech and speculatives squad, even tho the overall market mood was Gucci. 🤔
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The dollar started July on a rollercoaster. 🚀 It caught some flair in Asia thanks to positioning flows, but it ghosted real quick once Europe tagged in. Traders got sketched out over Trump's massive tax and spending spree and the drama with the July 9 tariffs deadline. 🤔
But then, plot twist hit! Solid U.S. numbers popped up when ISM manufacturing scored a 49.0 and job ops leaped to 7.77 million. The dollar caught some OOMPH, but the hype train was cut short after the Senate made the fiscal bill official. Traders stopped for a big think about what that $3.3 trillion debt could do. Mood fizzled out even more towards the London wrap-up. 😬
By the day’s end, the Greenback was Tetris-level mixed. It flexed a little against the Loonie, which had shaky oil vibes, but bobbed against the yen as BOJ hike whispers gained traction with strong Tankan data. The euro mostly stayed in chill mode with the ECB running its laid-back game, while Sterling got a slight edge as dropping UK house prices didn’t shake the BOE’s steady hand. 💸
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- ECB Guindos spilling all at 8:00 am GMT
- Euro Area no-job vibes for May at 9:00 am GMT
- Euro Area ECB Lane with some wisdom at 10:30 am GMT
- U.S. MBA mortgage applications & 30-year mortgage rate for June 27 at 11:00 am GMT
- U.S. Challenger job cuts for June at 11:30 am GMT
- U.S. ADP national employment report for June at 12:15 pm GMT
- Canada S&P Global manufacturing PMI for June at 1:30 pm GMT
- ECB President Lagarde's solo at 2:15 pm GMT
- U.S. EIA crude oil stock drama for June 27 at 2:30 pm GMT
- Australia S&P Global services PMI final for June at 11:00 pm GMT
Traders in the EU will be glued to unemployment deets and ECB chats for a lowkey sneak peek at the next central bank move, with chill vibes potentially giving the euro a little weight. 💼
Stateside, everyone’s eyes are on the ADP jobs scene and EIA crude oil inventory rumors which could move the dolla and oil-tied currencies based on how they remix Fed rate cut expectations. 👀
Stay on your toes, fam, and remember to peep our Forex Correlation Calculator when you're ready to make moves! 💪✨
