This article has been translated from English to Gen Z Slang.
Yo, Thursday was lit with more stuff to snack on than a TikTok collab—Fed chit-chat about rate cuts, vibes of chillin' U.S. GDP, plus some optimism on durable goods orders and a potential bessie with U.S. and China trade talks. 😎
Stocks went brrr, oil leveled up, gold hit the mainstream again, and the dollar took a snooze. Traders? They went wild for risk like influencers hitting a new dance trend. 💃
Peeps, here's the tea you might've missed from the last trading sessions! 😜
Headlines:
- WSJ: Trump might flex by picking the next Fed Boss early just to throw shade at Powell
- Germany GfK consumer vibe check for July: -20.3 (-19.0 vibes forecasted; -19.9 was the mood before)
- BOE Gov. Bailey thinks taking it slow with cutting rates is chill amidst all the geopolitical drama and chaos
- Canada wholesale sales sneak peak for May: -0.4% m/m (-0.5% m/m was the guess; -2.3% m/m was the recap)
- U.S. final Q1 GDP growth feels like: -0.5% q/q (-0.2% q/q was the premonition; 2.4% q/q was the rearview)
- U.S. GDP price index finale for Q1: 3.8% q/q (3.7% q/q was the hope; 2.3% q/q was the retro)
- U.S. core PCE price is like: 3.5% q/q (3.4% q/q was where they aimed; 2.6% q/q was the throwback)
- Trade vibes for May had U.S. goods unequally: -96.59B (-91.0B was forecasted; -87.62B was history)
- U.S. durable goods orders for May threw a rager: 16.4% m/m (5.2% m/m expected; throwback to -6.3% m/m); Core goods hit 0.5% m/m (0.1% m/m aim; a low-key 0.2% m/m was before)
- U.S. jobless claims threw light at week ending June 21: 236k (247k foreseen; 245k before rec)
- U.S. Chicago Fed national activity index for May: -0.28 (-0.1 was the mood; -0.25 was retro)
-
U.S. home sales pending for May:
– 1.1% y/y (-2.1% y/y was the cloud; -2.5% y/y was history)
– 1.8% m/m (-0.3% m/m they thought; -6.3% m/m vibe check) - U.S. Kansas Fed manufacturing index for June: 5.0 (-5.0 was the prophecy; -10.0 was the throwback)
- Commerce Secretary Lutnick shared the tea: U.S. and China signed a trade understanding and there's like 10+ deals brewing
- Russia might slide in another output hike at the next OPEC+ linkup
- FOMC voting squad Collins is like, July's too zoomy for rate cut talks
- FOMC voting homie Barr said their current money moves let them "wait and peep" how the economic story rolls out
- FOMC OG Goolsbee wants a few more clarity months before confirming tariff impact's no biggie
- FOMC lurker Barkin digs chillaxing for more deets, saying there's no prize in "speeding one way too fast"
- FOMC team player Daly peeps a rate cut rolling in the autumn 🍂
Broad Market Vibes:
Dollar pawty with Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, and Bitcoin Mashup Chart by TradingView
Thursday was a vibes fest for key players, as traders matched up economic dribs and drabs with some chillin' geo tensions. European stocks mostly greened up. Germany’s DAX was like, “lemme add 0.6% to the playlist,” and London's FTSE grooved up 0.2%, but France’s CAC 40 was like “nah fam” when German consumer feels dipped.
Stateside was all bull, fam. The S&P 500 cruised up 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 scored a new record with a 0.9% jump, with the mega-cap tech squad taking lead. Jobless claims were a vibe, and durable goods orders did their thing, boosting the scene. Q1 GDP got a downtick to minus 0.5%, fueling those rate cut rumors even as the Fed insists on July being too vibesy for a swerve. Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Lutnick spilled the beans on a U.S.-China trade sit-down with more on the horizon. 🔥
Gold had a day, steadying around $3,330. It wobbled over rate cut chatter but clapped back as the U.S. dollar went napping. US10Y ticked down to 4.25% with traders holding onto a chill Fed stance. WTI oil boomed early on summer demand hopes and a nice inventory drop, flirting with $66.40 but cooling at $65.40. Bitcoin wasn't feeling it, slipping to $107,000 while crypto overall stayed droopy even as the dollar did a bit of a chill pill.🌧️
FX Market Vibes: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
The dollar was kinda like, "Nah fam," on Thursday as traders were vibing hard on Fed rate cut bets. It started its day wilding out in Asia, reacting to the Fed's whole independence spiel and signals about July cut being on the table. More selling went down in London, as the rush for risk made safe-haven buys less bougie. By then, the Dollar Index was all about seeking multi-year lows. 😬
A quick pause before the U.S. party, but that didn't last, fam. Wack Q1 GDP data revised worse than expected to -0.5% with solid jobless reveals and unexpected durable goods traction—it let the dollar dip drama continue with a side of easing policy predictions. Fed peeps couldn’t pull the brakes on the decline, even suggesting premature July cuts.
By the end of it all, the Dollar Index dipped 0.45% to 97.235, euro rolled up to $1.1710, and sterling zhooshed up to $1.3732. Even more extra was the Aussie dollar hitting $0.6549, as emerging market currencies kept their three-day glow-up against the struggling Greenback. 💸
Upcoming Plot Twists on the Economic Calendar
- France CPI first look for June at 6:45 am GMT
- Euro area vibes on economy sentiment for June at 9:00 am GMT
- Canada GDP preview for May at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. personal income & splurge stats for May at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. core PCE price index for May at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Hammack spill sesh at 1:15 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Cook tea drop at 1:15 pm GMT
- U.S. UoM consumer vibes and inflation hopes for June at 2:00 pm GMT
The euro could snag some waves during the European turn up with France’s CPI drop. Any CPI or mood shakes could dish up a vibe check ahead of next week’s potential plot twists.
The U.S. show is likely to make it rain, with core PCE (Fed’s fave inflation metric), consumer splurging deets, and Fed talk maneuvering rate cut vibes and USD roller coaster.
Stay on your toes and make sure to peep our Forex Correlation Calculator when hopping on trades! 🚀
