This article has been translated from English to Gen Z Slang.
Yo fam, markets were on a rollercoaster Thursday, all cuz of some spicy US PPI data that totally yeeted the "done deal" vibes for a September rate cut. Meanwhile, Treasury yields and the dollar were on a mad rise. 💸
Stocks were vibing steady, oil was doin' its thing climbing, gold took a bit of a nap, and traders were prepping for a mega busy Friday filled with data drops and a US-Russia sit-down. 👀
Here’s the hot tea you might've snoozed through during the latest trading sesh! 😴
The Tea:
- U.K. RICS house price balance for July: -13.0% (Expected -8.0%; Last -7.0%)
- US Treasury Boss Bessent was like, “Yo, BOJ is slacking on inflation,” and hinted they’d be upping rates
- AUD Was Lit 🔥 After Jobs Report Boosted RBA Rate Cut Odds for November
- U.K. GDP for June was flexin' at 0.4% m/m (Expected 0.1% m/m; Previous -0.1% m/m); 1.4% y/y (Expected 1.0% y/y; Previous 0.7% y/y)
- U.K. GDP growth rate prel for Q2 2025: 0.3% q/q (Expected 0.1% q/q; Previous 0.7% q/q); 1.2% y/y (Expected 0.7% y/y; Previous 1.3% y/y)
- U.K. industrial production for June clocked 0.7% m/m (Expected 0.3% m/m; Previous -0.9% m/m); 0.2% y/y (Expected -0.2% y/y; Previous -0.3% y/y)
- U.K. manufacturing production for June: 0.5% m/m (Expected 0.3% m/m; Previous -1.0% m/m); Steady on 0.0% y/y (Expected -0.5% y/y; Previous 0.3% y/y)
- U.K. goods trade balance for June: -22.16B (Expected -21.5B; Previous -21.69B)
- Swiss producer & import prices for July: -0.2% m/m (Expected 0.1% m/m; Last -0.1% m/m); -0.9% y/y (Expected -0.6% y/y; Last -0.7% y/y)
- France inflation rate final for July: 0.2% m/m (Expected 0.2% m/m; Last 0.4% m/m); 1.0% y/y all around ✌️
- Euro Area GDP growth rate 2nd est for Q2 2025: 0.1% q/q (Expected 0.1% q/q; Last 0.6% q/q); 1.4% y/y (Expected 1.4% y/y; Last 1.5% y/y)
- Euro Area employment change prel for Q2 2025: 0.1% q/q (Expected 0.1% q/q; Last 0.2% q/q)
- Euro Area industrial production for June: -1.3% (Expected -0.6%; Last 1.7%)
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent denied puttin' any heat on the Fed, said he’s rooting for a chill 25bp rate cut for starters
- Bessent said US ain’t buyin' more crypto for that bitcoin stash, they’re going DIY with seized assets instead
- U.S. initial jobless claims for August 9: 224.0k (Expected 228.0k; Last 226.0k)
- U.S. PPI for July: a whopping 0.9% m/m (Expected 0.2% m/m; Last 0.0% m/m); 3.3% y/y (Expected 2.5% y/y; Last 2.3% y/y)
- U.S. core PPI for July: 0.9% (Expected 0.1%; Last 0.0%); 3.7% y/y (Expected 2.7% y/y; Last 2.6% y/y)
- U.K. NIESR monthly GDP for July: 0.2% chillin' like expected 😎 (Forecast 0.2%)
- U.S. Fed balance sheet for August 13: Keeping it consistent at 6.64
The Market Vibes:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
The main character in the asset drama Thursday was the US PPI. With this curveball, the September rate cut bets were way off, tossing yields up. July’s PPI going all out with a 0.9% hike was the wildest in three years, hinting companies are passing on those spicy tariffs. ✨
Stocks on Wall Street barely batted an eye despite the inflation drama. The S&P 500 barely squeezed out a tiny gain, setting another record after a dip to 6,440. Over in Europe, DAX and CAC 40 were shining with solid gains, thanks to that good vibe from UK GDP data and feeling positive about the upcoming Trump–Putin meet-up in Alaska.
Treasury yields popped with the PPI report, 10-year moved to 4.29% as traders ditched hopes of a September cut from a “done deal” to just about 90%. Gold slid to $3,335 on stronger dolla dolla bills and rising real yields, while bitcoin dropped to $118,000 after Boss Bessent made it crystal that the US isn’t in the crypto market, just figuring out what to do with seized assets. Oil took a different route, with WTI climbing to $63.95 on those geopolitical vibes before the US–Russia talks.
FX Market Vibe Check: U.S. Dollar vs. Major Moves:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The dollar started Thursday in a bit of a shy mode as everyone was banking on a September rate cut after some meh CPI data earlier. USD/JPY was having a tough day, sliding towards 146.40 after Bessent threw shade at Bank of Japan for dragging on inflation and suggested a rate hike, which didn’t help the dollar’s chill vibe.
During Europe’s trading hours, the dollar found a bit of pep back, prolly as traders squared up before Thursday’s US data party. But the real plot twist? July’s PPI spiking by 0.9%, the craziest in three years. The dollar bolted across the market, with DXY levitating from around 4.27 to test the 4.29 resistance level.
Bessent cleared up that there was no Fed arm-twisting and that a mellow 25 basis point cut is the starting point, with potential for speed. By the end in London, the Greenback was cruising near the day’s highs, boasting broad gains of 0.4-0.5% against major currencies, with the antipodeans catching the worst of it.
Next Call to Action on the Econ Calendar:
- Japan industrial production final for June at 4:30 am GMT
- Swiss GDP growth rate flash for June 30 at 7:00 am GMT
- Canada wholesale sales final for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada new motor vehicle sales for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada manufacturing sales final for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. retail sales for July at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. import and export prices for July at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. NY Empire State manufacturing index for August at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. industrial production for July at 1:15 pm GMT
- U.S. manufacturing production for July at 1:15 pm GMT
- U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Michigan inflation expectations prel for August at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. business inventories for June at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Baker Hughes oil rig count for August 15, 2025 at 5:00 pm GMT
- U.S.-Russia meetup on Ukraine peace deal happening today
Traders are rolling into Friday with a lot going on, kicking off with Swiss GDP that might just set the vibe for London. ✌️
But the main stage is gonna be all about a slew of US drops, from retail sales and those import prices to factory deets and Michigan moods, all lining up before the much-hyped US–Russia meet. 🏃💨
Stay woke for global trade updates and geopolitical headlines that could shake the mood. Keep those charts scrollin' and don’t sleep on our Forex Correlation Calculator if you’re makin' some moves! 📈
