This article has been translated from English to Gen Z Slang.
Markets were wildin' on Tuesday, fam. U.S. CPI was right on the cash, giving stocks a quick lift, but then the dollar stole the scene as traders chilled on their Fed cut dreams. 💸
Meanwhile, vibes were funky with inflation tea and tariff suspense keeping peeps cautious. European stocks took an L, while Nasdaq managed a tiny W and scored a new record high. 🚀
Here are the headlines you might've slept on during the last trading seshes! 🔍
Headlines:
- Australia Westpac consumer confidence index for July: 0.6% m/m 93.1 (93.0 forecast; 92.6 previous)
- Nvidia is back in the game with key AI chips in China, shaking off US stuff
- China info overload
- China GDP for June 30: 1.1% q/q (1.1% q/q forecast; 1.2% q/q previous); 5.2% y/y (5.3% y/y forecast; 5.4% y/y previous)
- China unemployment rate for June: 5.0% (5.1% forecast; 5.0% previous)
- China industrial production for June: 6.8% y/y (5.5% y/y forecast; 5.8% y/y previous)
- China retail sales for June: 4.8% y/y (6.1% y/y forecast; 6.4% y/y previous)
- China fixed asset investment (YTD) for June: 2.8% y/y (4.5% y/y forecast; 3.7% y/y previous)
- China industrial capacity utilization for June 30: 74.0% (74.4% forecast; 74.1% previous)
- Germany ZEW economic hype index for July: 52.7 (49.1 forecast; 47.5 previous)
- Euro Area ZEW economic hype index for July: 36.1 (30.0 forecast; 35.3 previous)
- Euro Area industrial production for May: 1.7% m/m (0.8% m/m forecast; -2.4% m/m previous); 3.7% y/y (1.0% y/y forecast; 0.8% y/y previous)
- BOE member Mann says inflation is “still a whole mood" above their goal 2%
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U.S. CPI for June: 2.7% y/y (2.6% y/y forecast; 2.4% y/y previous); 0.3% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous)
- Core CPI at 0.2% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous); 2.9% y/y (2.9% y/y forecast; 2.8% y/y previous)
- Canada CPI for June: 1.9% y/y (1.5% y/y forecast; 1.7% y/y previous); 0.1% m/m (-0.3% m/m forecast; 0.6% m/m previous)
- Canada manufacturing sales final for May: -0.9% m/m (-1.3% m/m forecast; -2.8% m/m previous)
- U.S. NY Empire State manufacturing index for July: 5.5 (-13.0 forecast; -16.0 previous)
- U.S. President Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia, flexing a 19% tariff
- FOMC member Collins said the economy's on "solid" ground, giving the Fed some breathing room
- U.S. is deep diving into Brazil's "sus" trade moves amid the country’s drama with ex-Prez Bolsonaro
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Tuesday was low-key savage for risky stuff, with inflation feels and tariff drama putting a damper on the vibes. European stocks were down. The Stoxx 600 dipped 0.37%, Germany’s DAX fell 0.42%, and France’s CAC 40 took a 0.54% hit. The FTSE 100 experienced max slumpage, down 0.66%, thanks to issues with homebuilders and retailers. 😬
Stateside, it was a mixed bag. The expected CPI vibe gave stocks a tiny hype-up. The Nasdaq sneaked up 0.18% to a record high of 20,677.80, supported by a 4% climb from Nvidia gettin' back in the China chip game. But the S&P 500 lost 0.40% to finish below 6,300, and the Dow took a gnarly 0.98% tumble 'cause bank earnings were weighin' it down. 😱
Gold slid 0.65% to $3,325, backing off the $3,350 ceiling as the dollar got extra swole. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed up to 4.49%, its peak in over a month, as traders lowered their Fed cut hopes. WTI crude oil dropped to $66.52, still feelin' the heat from Trump’s 50-day Russia peace deal countdown. Bitcoin also got dunked, fallin' to $117,600 after hittin' record highs on Monday. 🏴☠️
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
On Tuesday, the dollar started off weak, dipping during the Asian sesh as traders were extra cautious before the US CPI drop. The Greenback took some Ls against many majors, lowkey because of China’s mixed data blast. Q2 GDP smashed it at 1.1% q/q, but meh retail sales in June stirred up fresh global growth stress, applying pressure to the dollar earlier on. 🌏
Dollar sellers amped it up in Europe after Germany's ZEW sentiment index jumped to 52.7 and the Euro Area index surprised too, giving the euro a boost. However, the Greenback made a major comeback at the U.S. open (not the tennis tourney) when CPI came out just as expected. Core inflation also ticked up just 0.2% m/m, suggesting tariffs haven't really made prices rise yet. That was enough to chill September Fed cut talks and blast the dollar off its lows. 🚀
Up in the Great White North, Canada’s CPI was 1.9% y/y as expected, not really moving USD/CAD much. What did budge things was Trump's shoutout of a trade deal concept with Indonesia, with a 19% tariff pact. This helped the dollar's comeback as traders cheered any whispers of trade progress. His 3-point Fed rate cut requests largely got shrugged off. By the sesh close, the dollar erased earlier losses to land higher against most G10 currencies, nabbing a seven-session winning streak. 💪
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- U.K. retail price index for June at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K. consumer price index growth rate for June at 6:00 am GMT
- Euro Area trade balance for May at 9:00 am GMT
- Canada housing starts for June at 12:15 pm GMT
- U.S. producer price index for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. industrial production for June at 1:15 pm GMT
- U.S. manufacturing production for June at 1:15 pm GMT
- U.S. capacity utilization rate for June at 1:15 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Barr speech at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. EIA crude oil stocks change for July 11 at 2:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Beige Book at 6:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Williams speech at 10:30 pm GMT
- New Zealand food price index for June at 10:45 pm GMT
- Japan balance of trade for June at 11:50 pm GMT
Today’s U.K. inflation data will probs light up early GBP action, while the U.S. PPI report might be the main show for USD pairs. 🔥
On top of that, Fed speakers Barr (2:00 pm) and Williams (10:30 pm), plus the Beige Book report (6:00 pm), could hype or slow any USD moves depending on what they spill about future rate cuts. 🎤
As always, stay agile and don’t forget to peep our Forex Correlation Calculator when making any trade calls!
