This article has been translated from English to Tagalog.

Grabe, sobrang kalat ang markets noong Tuesday. Yung U.S. CPI, sakto lang ang labas, kaya medyo umangat yung stocks sandali. Pero yung dollar, da best, kasi nag-dial back ang traders sa expectations nila sa Fed cuts.

Samantala, dahil sa inflation worries at tariff uncertainty, naipit ang risk appetite. Bagsak ang European stocks, pero yung Nasdaq, kahit papaano, tumaas ng konti at naka-reach pa ng bagong record high.

Eto ang mga balitang baka na-miss mo sa mga nakaraang trading sessions!

Headlines:

  • Australia Westpac consumer confidence index for July: 0.6% m/m 93.1 (93.0 forecast; 92.6 previous)
  • Nvidia will restart sales of a key AI chip to China, in a reversal of US restrictions
  • China data dump
    • China GDP for June 30: 1.1% q/q (1.1% q/q forecast; 1.2% q/q previous); 5.2% y/y (5.3% y/y forecast; 5.4% y/y previous)
    • China unemployment rate for June: 5.0% (5.1% forecast; 5.0% previous)
    • China industrial production for June: 6.8% y/y (5.5% y/y forecast; 5.8% y/y previous)
    • China retail sales for June: 4.8% y/y (6.1% y/y forecast; 6.4% y/y previous)
    • China fixed asset investment (YTD) for June: 2.8% y/y (4.5% y/y forecast; 3.7% y/y previous)
    • China industrial capacity utilization for June 30: 74.0% (74.4% forecast; 74.1% previous)
  • Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for July: 52.7 (49.1 forecast; 47.5 previous)
  • Euro Area ZEW economic sentiment index for July: 36.1 (30.0 forecast; 35.3 previous)
  • Euro Area industrial production for May: 1.7% m/m (0.8% m/m forecast; -2.4% m/m previous); 3.7% y/y (1.0% y/y forecast; 0.8% y/y previous)
  • BOE member Mann said inflation is “still a challenge” above their target 2%
  • U.S. CPI for June: 2.7% y/y (2.6% y/y forecast; 2.4% y/y previous); 0.3% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous)
    • Core CPI at 0.2% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous); 2.9% y/y (2.9% y/y forecast; 2.8% y/y previous)
  • Canada CPI for June: 1.9% y/y (1.5% y/y forecast; 1.7% y/y previous); 0.1% m/m (-0.3% m/m forecast; 0.6% m/m previous)
  • Canada manufacturing sales final for May: -0.9% m/m (-1.3% m/m forecast; -2.8% m/m previous)
  • U.S. NY Empire State manufacturing index for July: 5.5 (-13.0 forecast; -16.0 previous)
  • U.S. President Trump announced trade agreement with Indonesia, including 19% tariff
  • FOMC member Collins said “solid” economic conditions give the Fed time to assess incoming data
  • U.S. has launched an investigation into Brazil’s “unfair” trading practices amid the country’s prosecution of former President Bolsonaro

Broad Market Price Action:

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Ang Tuesday, sobrang hirap para sa risk assets, dahil sa inflation jitters at tariff talks na nagpapababa ng risk-taking. European stocks lahat bagsak. Yung Stoxx 600, bumaba ng 0.37%, Germany’s DAX bumagsak ng 0.42%, at France’s CAC 40 bumagsak ng 0.54%. Pinakaapektado ang FTSE 100 na bumagsak ng 0.66%, nadala pababa ng mga homebuilders at retailers.

Sa US naman, halo-halo ang nangyari. Yung CPI print, sakto lang, kaya nagkaroon ng slight na pag-angat sa stocks. Yung Nasdaq, medyo tumaas ng 0.18% at nakagawa ng bagong record high sa 20,677.80, thanks sa 4% jump ng Nvidia matapos mag-resume ng chip sales sa China. Pero yung S&P 500 naman, bumaba ng 0.40% at hindi nakapagsara sa baba ng 6,300, at yung Dow, mas malaki ang binagsak, pababa ng 0.98% dahil sa mga bank earnings na bumigat sa financials.

Gold bumaba ng 0.65% sa $3,325, lumayo mula sa $3,350 ceiling habang tumibay ang dollar. Ang 10-year Treasury yield ay umakyat sa 4.49%, pinakamataas sa mahigit isang buwan, habang bumaba ang pag-asa na magka-cut ang Fed. WTI crude oil naman, bumaba sa $66.52, dahil pa rin sa pressure mula sa 50-day Russia peace deal deadline ni Trump. Pati Bitcoin, nadamay, bumagsak sa $117,600 matapos maabot ang record highs noong Monday.

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Majors

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView

Nagsimula ang dollar noong Tuesday na medyo mahina, bumababa sa Asian session habang cautious ang mga traders bago lumabas ang US CPI report. Bumagsak ang Greenback laban sa karamihan ng majors, dala na rin ng mixed data mula sa China. Ang Q2 GDP nila nakalampas sa expectations sa 1.1% q/q, pero yung retail sales noong June, mahina, kaya naman nagdulot ng bagong worries sa global growth at nagpababa sa dollar sa simula.

Lalong bumagsak ang dollar sa Europe matapos tumaas ang Germany’s ZEW sentiment index sa 52.7 at pati na rin ang broader Euro Area gauge na nagulat ang mga tao sa taas, kaya nagbigay ng suporta sa euro. Pero biglang nag-reverse ang Greenback pagdating sa U.S. open (hindi tennis tournament, ha) nung lumabas ang CPI data na eksakto sa expectations. Ang core inflation, tumaas lang ng 0.2% m/m, na ibig sabihin ay hindi pa talagang tumataas ang presyo dahil sa tariffs. Sapat na ito para magpabagsak sa September Fed cut calls at paliparin ang dollar mula sa kanyang lows.

Sa taas naman, ang Canada’s CPI, expected na 1.9% y/y, hindi masyadong nakaapekto sa USD/CAD. Pero ang nagpausad sa dollar ay ang announcement ni Trump ng trade deal concept kasama ang Indonesia, na may kasamang 19% tariff agreement. Nagdagdag ito sa rebound ng dollar habang natuwa ang mga traders sa kahit anong senyales ng trade progress. Ang calls niya para sa 3-point Fed rate cut, hindi masyadong pinansin ng traders. Sa pagtatapos ng session, nabawi ng dollar ang earlier losses nito at nagtapos na mas mataas kontra sa karamihan ng G10 currencies, nagpapatuloy ng kanyang winning streak sa pitong magkakasunod na sessions.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

  • U.K. retail price index for June at 6:00 am GMT
  • U.K. consumer price index growth rate for June at 6:00 am GMT
  • Euro Area trade balance for May at 9:00 am GMT
  • Canada housing starts for June at 12:15 pm GMT
  • U.S. producer price index for June at 12:30 pm GMT
  • U.S. industrial production for June at 1:15 pm GMT
  • U.S. manufacturing production for June at 1:15 pm GMT
  • U.S. capacity utilization rate for June at 1:15 pm GMT
  • U.S. Fed Barr speech at 2:00 pm GMT
  • U.S. EIA crude oil stocks change for July 11 at 2:30 pm GMT
  • U.S. Fed Beige Book at 6:00 pm GMT
  • U.S. Fed Williams speech at 10:30 pm GMT
  • New Zealand food price index for June at 10:45 pm GMT
  • Japan balance of trade for June at 11:50 pm GMT

Ngayon, ang U.K. inflation data ay malamang magdulot ng maagang GBP volatility, habang ang U.S. PPI report ay maaaring maging main event para sa USD pairs ngayong araw.

Dagdag pa riyan, yung mga speeches ni Fed speakers Barr (2:00 pm) at Williams (10:30 pm), pati na rin ang Beige Book report (6:00 pm), ay maaaring magpalakas o magpababa sa anumang galaw ng USD depende sa tono nila tungkol sa future rate cuts.

Tulad ng lagi, maging alerto at huwag kalimutang tingnan ang aming Forex Correlation Calculator kapag may mga trades ka na ginagawa!