Daily Big Market TL;DR – Sep 17, 2025

Yo, the FOMC decision was totally the main character for most of the day, making everyone act like they were walking on eggshells in early trading before things got wild later on. 🚀

Canada also slid into the scene with a predictable interest rate cut of 0.25% and Loonie pairs barely blinked. Wimpy vibes, y'know? 🌬️

Peep the latest trading sessions for all the juicy headlines and deets you probs missed! 📰

Headlines:

• New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence for September 30, 2025: 90.9 (93.0 forecast; 91.2 previous)
• New Zealand Current Account for June 30, 2025: -0.97B (-2.5B forecast; -2.32B previous)
• Japan Balance of Trade for August 2025: -242.5B (-450.0B forecast; -117.5B previous)
  • Japan Imports for August 2025: -5.2% y/y (-7.5% y/y previous)
  • Japan Exports for August 2025: -0.1% y/y (-2.6% y/y previous)
• Australia Westpac Leading Index for August 2025: -0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous)
• U.K. Retail Price Index for August 2025: 4.6% y/y (4.7% y/y forecast; 4.8% y/y previous); 0.4% m/m (0.5% m/m forecast; 0.4% m/m previous)
• U.K. Consumer Price Index Growth for August 2025: 0.3% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous); 3.8% y/y (3.8% y/y forecast; 3.8% y/y previous)
  • U.K. Core Consumer Price Index Growth Rate for August 2025: 3.6% y/y (3.7% y/y forecast; 3.8% y/y previous); 0.3% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; 0.2% m/m previous)
• Euro area Consumer Price Index Growth Rate for August 2025: 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.0% m/m previous); 2.0% y/y (2.1% y/y forecast; 2.0% y/y previous)
  • Euro area Core Consumer Price Index Growth Final for August 2025: 2.3% y/y (2.3% y/y forecast; 2.3% y/y previous)
• U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate for September 12, 2025: 6.39% (6.49% previous)
  • U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications for September 12, 2025: 29.7% (9.2% previous)
• Canada Foreign Securities Purchases for July 2025: 26.69B (0.71B previous)
  • Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians for July 2025: 17.41B (9.04B previous)
• U.S. Housing Starts for August 2025: -8.5% m/m (-3.4% m/m forecast; 5.2% m/m previous); 1.31M (1.37M forecast; 1.43M previous)
• U.S. Building Permits Prel for August 2025: -3.7% m/m (0.6% m/m forecast; -2.2% m/m previous)
• Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision for September 17, 2025: 2.5% (2.5% forecast; 2.75% previous)
• U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for September 12, 2025: -9.29M (3.94M previous)
• U.S. Federal Funds Rate for September 17, 2025: 4.25% (4.25% forecast; 4.5% previous)
  • U.S. FOMC Economic Projections:
    • Dot plot showed that most Fed officials expect the federal funds rate to fall significantly by the end of 2025, with the median projection clustered around 3.50–3.75%.
    • This implies two additional 25 basis-point cuts are expected at the final meetings scheduled for October and December 2025, indicating a more dove-ish vibe than previous quarters. 🕊️
  • Some spicy drama from new Governor Stephen Miran, pushing for a more intense single 50 bp cut, but seems like everyone else is vibing with smaller chill moves.

Market Vibes: Broad Action:

Markets were off to a slow-mo vibe during the Asian sesh, as everyone chewed their nails 'til the big FOMC spill. 😬

Gold was unclutch-ing its earlier anti-USD shine, with the squad locking down gains before things got hectic. A little spike popped up in the U.S. session, but then it took a mad dip during the FOMC tea-spill, closing 0.81% 💔 while USD showed off.

WTI crude oil was feeling low-key shaky during Asian hours, with supply vibes chillin' out as all eyes were glued on the Fed's big news. 🚀 It got a little push-up after the EIA tea spilled a surprise oil crash of 9.3 million barrels, contrary to the 1.4 million barrels expected, but then it deflated post-Fed.

U.S. stock squad went all red too, with the S&P 500 losing 0.10% by the end of the sesh as initial FOMO highs fizzled when Powell brushed off the latest BLS payroll downgrade during his press chat.

Currency Drama: U.S. Dollar vs. The Crew:

The dollar started on shaky legs before getting its act together during the Asian sesh, prob 'cause peeps were cashing out on bearish vibes before the FOMC drop.

Japan's epic trade stats made USD/JPY take a quick dip while UK's meh inflation stats hit GBP/USD, but the dollar started sliding right before the U.S. sesh opened.

Worldwide mixed signals popped with dollar pairs earlier in NYC as different currency dramas hit, including Loonie’s quiet shade over the BoC vibes. Yen and pound stood their ground before the FOMC hurrah, but no one stayed chill when the dollar roller coaster started. 🎢

Predictably, a 25 basis-point snip from the central bank went down, with dot plot map vibes hinting at more rate snips than we even saw coming for 2025. The dollar took a dive on Miran's 0.50% rate cut wish but bounced back like a boss during presser when Powell wasn't sweating labor market issues. 🚀

Heads Up: Incoming Economic Drama

• Swiss Trade Drama for August 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
• Eurozone ECB President Lagarde: on stage at 7:10 am GMT 🗣️
• Eurozone Construction Feels for July 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
• Eurozone ECB Schnabel Chat at 9:45 am GMT 🗣️
• UK's BOE Policy Playback & MPC Minutes at 11:00 am GMT
• U.S. Philly Fed Workout Index for September 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT 🏋️‍♂️
• U.S. New Jobless Claims dropped on Sep 13, 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT (for all your head-scratching needs)
• U.S. CB Leading Index MoM for August 2025 at 2:00 pm GMT
• U.S. TIC Net Long-Term Deals for July 2025 at 8:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Receipts for September 17, 2025 at 8:30 pm GMT
• NZ Trade Storyline for August 2025 at 10:45 pm GMT
• UK Gfk Consumer Feels for September 2025 at 11:01 pm GMT
• Japan's Price Pulse for August 2025 at 11:30 pm GMT

Brace yourself for another lit central bank show! 🎤 This time, Bank of England's spilling the tea. UK's policymakers might hit us with less chill decisions after their previous "hawkish split." 😎

Keep a third eye on U.S. initial jobless claims since dollar peeps ain't over the whole labor market jig yet. 👀

Like always, be on the lookout for global trade and geo-political gossip that could give the market's mood a twist. Stay woke and don’t forget to drop by our Forex Correlation Calculator before diving into those trades! 🎯