This article has been translated from English to Tagalog.
Last na 'to sa Septiyembre at third quarter, mga mars, at nagpost ng slight gains ang US equities & medyo bumaba lang ang USD kahit na may mga kabado dahil baka mag-shutdown ang US government. Tuloy-tuloy pa rin ang gold sa pag-achieve ng fresh records habang ang oil ay under pressure pa rin dahil sa oversupply worries.
Tignan niyo na lang 'yung mga headlines at economic updates na baka na-miss niyo sa latest trading sessions!
Headlines & Data:
- Australia Building Permits Prel for August 2025: -6.0% m/m (-4.0% m/m forecast; -8.2% m/m previous)
- China NBS Manufacturing PMI for September 2025: 49.8 (49.9 forecast; 49.4 previous) – six months na siyang bumabagsak
- China NBS Non Manufacturing PMI for September 2025: 50.0 (50.7 forecast; 50.3 previous)
- Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision: 3.6% (3.6% forecast; 3.6% previous) – steady lang, pero medyo cautious pa rin si Bullock
- Germany Consumer Price Index Growth Rate Prel for September 2025: 2.4% y/y (2.3% y/y forecast; 2.2% y/y previous); 0.2% m/m (0.1% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous)
- U.K. GDP Growth Rate Final for Q2 2025: 0.3% q/q (0.3% q/q forecast; 0.7% q/q previous); 1.4% y/y (1.2% y/y forecast; 1.3% y/y previous)
- U.S. JOLTs Job Openings for August 2025: 7.23M (7.1M forecast; 7.18M previous)
- U.S. CB Consumer Confidence for September 2025: 94.2 (95.0 forecast; 97.4 previous) – medyo bumaba
- U.S. Chicago PMI for September 2025: 40.6 (41.0 forecast; 41.5 previous) – malalim na sa contraction territory
- Deadline ng government shutdown malapit na sa hatinggabi at wala pang deal sa paningin
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Sa Tuesday session, nagpost ng slight gains ang stocks sa hapon kahit na maraming kaba about sa US government shutdown na baka ma-delay ang pag-release ng importanteng labor-market data na makakapagbigay ng clue kung gaano kabilis bababa ang interest rates ng Federal Reserve. Low volatility sa buong trading day kasi medyo cautious ang mga traders.
Ang S&P 500 ay nagtapos ng session na 0.3% higher sa 6,676.9 habang ang Nasdaq 100 ay tumaas ng 0.4% pagkatapos umakyat ng halos 1% earlier. Baka naman dahil relieved ang iba na ang manufacturing PMI ng China ay nagpakita ng marginal improvement at steady lang ang RBA ng Australia sa rates. Pero na-moderate din ang gains dahil sa disappointing U.S. consumer confidence data at ang patuloy na contraction ng Chicago PMI na nagpapaalala sa mga traders ng economic fragility.
Gold pa rin ang panalo, mga beshy. Pa-sideways man ang galaw pero sa huli, umakyat pa rin bago mag-close, nagset ng bagong record high na $3,853.1 per ounce. Ang unstoppable advance ng precious metal ay dahil sa kombinasyon ng shutdown fears, Fed rate cut expectations, at concerns about fiscal sustainability. Takot ang financial markets sa shutdown kasi tigil ang pagrelease ng U.S. statistics agencies ng economic data na importante sa decision-making ng Federal Reserve.
Ang WTI crude oil ay under pressure pa rin, bumagsak ng 0.7% to $62.30, marahil dahil sa expectations na mag-iisip ang OPEC+ ng additional production increases sa kanilang upcoming Sunday meeting. Mukhang focus din ang prospect ng dagdag na supply sa isang oversupplied na market, lalo na't walang fresh major developments sa Gaza o Ukraine front.
Ang Bitcoin ay nagpakita ng resilience kahit na may mga broader market uncertainties, nakuha ulit ang posisyon nito sa itaas ng psychologically important na $114,000 level pagkatapos bumaba during Asia at London session, marahil dahil sa balancing ng traders ng shutdown concerns at ang appeal ng cryptocurrency bilang alternative store of value.
Ang 10-year Treasury yield ay mostly sideways ang galaw sa session, nagkaroon ng lower rate sandali habang nagramp up ng bond positions ang mga bond traders bago ang government shutdown. Nagkaroon ng konting giveback bago mag-close, kaya nag-close ang yield around 4.10%.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
Medyo nalosyang ang U.S. dollar noong Tuesday, bumaba against most major currencies dahil sa shutdown risks at mixed economic data na naka-apekto sa sentiment.
Nagsimula ang greenback na under pressure sa Asian session, hindi nakahanap ng comfort sa disappointing China PMI data, o sa desisyon ng RBA na steady lang sa rates. Baka ang mga concerns sa US government shutdown at Fed rate cut expectations ang mga naging dahilan kung bakit weak ang USD sa halos buong araw na trade.
May fresh US catalysts during the U.S. morning session nang lumabas ang JOLTs job openings data, na bahagyang tumaas sa expectations na 7.23 million, pero overshadowed ng sharp drop sa consumer confidence to 94.2 mula 97.4. Ito ay nagresulta sa panandaliang pagbaba ng USD against the majors bago ito nag-rebound papunta sa London close.
Ang Aussie ang nag-emerge na notable out performer, marahil dahil hindi nag-cut ng rates ang RBA, at ang yen ay sumunod dahil marahil nakinabang sa safe haven flows.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- New Zealand Building Permits for August 2025 at 9:45 pm GMT
- Australia AIG Manufacturing Index for September 2025 at 11:00 pm GMT
- Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for September 2025 at 12:30 am GMT
- U.K. Nationwide Housing Prices for September 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
- Swiss Retail Sales for August 2025 at 6:30 am GMT
- Swiss procure.ch Manufacturing PMI for September 2025 at 7:30 am GMT
- Euro area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final for September 2025 at 8:00 am GMT
- U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for September 2025 at 8:30 am GMT
- Euro area Consumer Price Index Growth Rate Flash for September 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
- U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate & Application for September 26, 2025 at 11:00 am GMT
- U.S. ADP National Employment Report for September 2025 at 12:15 pm GMT
- Swiss SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 1:00 pm GMT
- Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for September 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
- U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2025 at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for September 26, 2025 at 2:30 pm GMT
- Canada BoC Summary of Deliberations at 5:30 pm GMT
Wednesday’s calendar features two critical U.S. releases that could significantly impact markets, particularly given the risk that Friday’s official payrolls report may be delayed by a government shutdown.
The ADP employment data, forecast at just 45,000 jobs, will be scrutinized for signs of further labor market deterioration that could cement expectations for October Fed easing. Any significant miss could trigger sharp dollar weakness and support risk assets.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI update will reveal whether the factory sector can escape contraction territory, with readings below 50 likely reinforcing recession fears and potentially pushing Treasury yields lower while supporting gold’s advance toward $4,000.
