Pang-araw-araw na Buod ng Malawak na Merkado – Setyembre 16, 2025

Another down day na naman for the dollar, mga bes! Market players tuloy-tuloy ang pag-presyo ng September Fed rate cut kahit na ang U.S. retail sales report ay mas maganda pa sa inaasahan.

Samantala, gold naman ay nag-strike ng another record high sa $3,700 levels habang ang crude oil ay tumaas ng halos 2% sa araw na 'yun.

Check mo ang mga headlines at economic updates na baka na-miss mo sa recent trading sessions!

Headlines:

• New Zealand Food Price Index for August 2025: 5.0% (5.2% forecast; 5.0% previous)
• Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index for July 2025: 0.5% (0.2% forecast; 0.5% previous)
• Sinabi ng China na plano nilang maglabas ng bagong policy measures para palakasin ang consumption
• U.K. Claimant Count Change for August 2025: 17.4k (5.0k forecast; -6.2k previous)
  • U.K. Employment Change for July 2025: 232.0k (150.0k forecast; 238.0k previous)
  • U.K. Unemployment Rate for July 2025: 4.7% (4.7% forecast; 4.7% previous)
  • U.K. Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) for July 2025: 4.7% (4.5% forecast; 4.6% previous)
• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for September 2025: 37.3 (26.0 forecast; 34.7 previous)
• Euro area Industrial Production for July 2025: 1.8% y/y (0.9% y/y forecast; 0.2% y/y previous); 0.3% m/m (0.5% m/m forecast; -1.3% m/m previous)
• Euro area Labour Cost Index Final for June 30, 2025: 3.6% y/y (3.7% y/y forecast; 3.4% y/y previous)
• Euro area Wage Growth for June 30, 2025: 3.7% y/y (3.6% y/y forecast; 3.4% y/y previous)
• Euro area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for September 2025: 26.1 (24.0 forecast; 25.1 previous)
• Mixed commentary from ECB officials:
  • ECB official Villeroy noted na ang French growth ay hindi pa rin ganun kalakas pero positive pa rin
  • ECB official Scicluna said na ang small inflation deviations ay hindi dahilan para magpanic pero ang EUR appreciation could undermine competitiveness
  • ECB official Kazaks said na ang reduction sa central bank’s interest rates ay medyo significant na
  • ECB official Simkus suggested na ang easing cycle ay malapit nang matapos pero di pa ganap na tapos
• Trump reiterated na kailangan ng Ukraine na makipag-deal para matapos na ang giyera, baka mag-arrange ng meeting sa dalawang presidente
• European Commission President von der Leyen had a phone call with Trump para pag-usapan ang joint efforts para pataasin ang pressure sa Russia
• Canada Housing Starts for August 2025: 245.8k (240.0k forecast; 294.1k previous)
• Canada Consumer Price Index Growth Rate for August 2025: -0.1% m/m (-0.1% m/m forecast; 0.3% m/m previous); 1.9% y/y (1.8% y/y forecast; 1.7% y/y previous)
  • Canada Core Consumer Price Index Growth Rate 0.0% m/m (0.0% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous); 2.6% y/y (2.6% y/y forecast; 2.6% y/y previous)
• U.S. Import Prices for August 2025: 0.3% m/m (0.1% m/m forecast; 0.4% m/m previous); 0.0% y/y (0.2% y/y forecast; -0.2% y/y previous)
• U.S. Export Prices for August 2025: 0.3% m/m (-0.2% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous); 3.4% y/y (2.7% y/y forecast; 2.2% y/y previous)
• U.S. Retail Sales for August 2025: 0.6% m/m (0.4% m/m forecast; 0.5% m/m previous); 5.0% y/y (3.2% y/y forecast; 3.9% y/y previous)
• U.S. Industrial Production for August 2025: 0.1% (0.0% forecast; -0.1% previous); 0.9% y/y (1.2% y/y forecast; 1.4% y/y previous)
• U.S. Manufacturing Production for August 2025: 0.2% m/m (0.0% m/m forecast; 0.0% m/m previous); 0.9% y/y (1.2% y/y forecast; 1.4% y/y previous)
• U.S. Capacity Utilization Rate for August 2025: 77.4% (77.4% forecast; 77.5% previous)
• U.S. Business Inventories for July 2025: 0.2% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; 0.2% m/m previous)
• U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for September 2025: 32.0 (33.0 forecast; 32.0 previous)
• Chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Miran confirmed to attend September FOMC meeting this week
• Trump announced na meron na silang deal sa TikTok na magko-close in 30-45 days
• New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index for September 16, 2025: -0.8% (-4.0% forecast; -4.3% previous)
• U.S. API Crude Oil Stock Change for September 12, 2025: -3.42M (1.25M previous)

Broad Market Price Action:

Consolidation ang tawag sa laro sa karamihan ng Asian trading session, as risk assets nag-trade sideways habang naghihintay ng mas malalaking market catalysts.

WTI crude oil, na initially bumaba during the London market open, ay biglang tumaas ulit habang ang geopolitical tensions sa pagitan ng Ukraine at Russia ay nananatili, kasunod ng mga naunang drone attacks. Inulit ni Trump na kailangan ni Ukrainian President Zelensky na makipag-deal para matapos na ang giyera, later on nagkaroon ng phone call kasama si European Commission head von der Leyen para pag-usapan ang joint efforts para i-pressure ang Russia.

Gold naman ay nakakita rin ng suporta mula sa safe-haven flows on geopolitics, pati na rin ang tuloy-tuloy na dollar weakness leading up to the FOMC decision later this week. Ang precious metal ay tumama ng fresh record highs around $3,700 sa simula ng U.S. session at nag-close 0.23% higher for the day.

Treasury yields continued bumagsak in reaction to dollar declines, as ang currency ay barely nakakuha ng suporta mula sa medyo upbeat U.S. retail sales data. U.S. equity indices naman, ay hindi nakapag-hold sa gains mula sa early session, as investors likely nag-book ng some profits bago ang FOMC day. Ang S&P 500 index ay nag-close ng 0.13% lower habang ang Nasdaq ay bumaba ng 0.07% as tech sector stocks nag-retreat.

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

Ang Greenback ay nagpumilit manatiling above water during the Asian trading session dahil sa kawalan ng major catalysts pero soon caved to another round of selling habang risk-taking ay lumakas. Pagkatapos ng ilang initial losses, ang AUD at NZD ay agad na nakinabang sa risk appetite dahil sa balita ng China na maglalabas ng bagong policies para palakasin ang consumption.

Ang U.K. jobs data turned out na medyo mixed, with the headline claimant count figure coming in weaker than expected habang ang average earnings index ay hit the mark, barely naapektuhan ang pound’s gains. Ang Germany ay nag-report ng mas malakas kesa inaasahang ZEW sentiment index, underscoring ang ECB’s more optimistic outlook sa statement last week at pinayagan ang EUR na mag-extend ng pag-akyat laban sa dollar.

Ang U.S. retail sales ay mas maganda pa sa inaasahan sa 0.6% monthly gain para sa headline figure kumpara sa projected 0.4% uptick, pero ito ay hindi nakapigil sa dollar na bumagsak pa lalo. Ang industrial production at capacity utilization data rin ay broadly in line sa inaasahan, pero ang market positioning para sa dovish Fed announcement ay mas umangat kesa sa mga resulta na ito, na nagdulot sa USD na mag-close ng mas mababa sa board para sa isa pang araw.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• U.K. Consumer Price Index Report for August 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
• China FDI (YTD) YoY for August 2025
• Euro area ECB President Lagarde Speech at 7:30 am GMT
• Euro area Consumer Price Index Growth Rate Final for August 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
• U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate & Applications for September 12, 2025 at 11:00 am GMT
• Canada Foreign Securities Purchases for July 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Housing Starts for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Building Permits Prel for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
• Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision for September 17, 2025 at 1:45 pm GMT
• Canada BoC Press Conference at 2:30 pm GMT
• U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for September 12, 2025 at 2:30 pm GMT
• Germany Bundesbank Nagel Speech at 5:00 pm GMT
• U.S. FOMC Statement & Economic Projections at 6:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Press Conference at 6:30 pm GMT
• New Zealand GDP Growth Rate for June 30, 2025 at 10:45 pm GMT
• Japan Machinery Orders for July 2025 at 11:50 pm GMT

It's FOMC day, ladies and gents!

Maghanda sa elevated volatility throughout the day, as markets mag-gear up para sa highly-anticipated Fed announcement na pwedeng mag-set ng tone para sa longer-term USD trends at risk sentiment.

Prior to that, ang U.K. CPI release ay worth watching din since ito ay puwedeng mag-shape ng expectations para sa BOE decision later in the week. Ang BOC statement ay naka-line up din, at marami ang umaasa na ang central bank ay mag-a-announce ng “hawkish cut” this time.

As always, look out for global trade developments and geopolitical headlines na puwedeng makaapekto sa overall market sentiment. Stay nimble at huwag kalimutan i-check ang aming Forex Correlation Calculator kapag may mga trades!