This article has been translated from English to Gen Z Slang.
Yo, the markets just flexed on the first US gov shutdown in seven whole years like it ain't no biggie on Wednesday. Stocks kept on cruising up for the fourth day even with all the political chaos in D.C. 😅 The ADP payroll news hit like a shockwave, making everyone bet on the Fed cutting rates, and bam, Treasury yields dipped while gold and Bitcoin were all like, "We up here!" 🚀
Catch up on what's popping with the latest trading sessions you mighta snoozed on!
Headlines & Data:
- Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party picked Sanae Takaichi as boss, and she's all about that loose fiscal and monetary policy, making the yen weak AF.
- French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu was like, "I'm out" after being in office less than a month, deepening France's political drama with budget talks stuck in the mud.
- OPEC+ decided to go chill with a tiny 137,000 barrel/day pump-up for November, way less than the market was afraid of. 😅
- U.S. gov shutdown rolls into week two and it feels like forever, holding up some crucial economic deets. 🤦♀️
- ECB peeps ain't stressing about rate switches, with VP de Guindos saying the current vibe is "just right."
- Australia's TD-MI Inflation Gauge for September 2025 is like 0.4% m/m (called it at 0.0%; last time -0.3%)
- Switzerland's Unemployment Rate for September 2025 rolls in at 2.8% (called it 2.7%; last time 2.8%)
- Sentix Economic Index for October 2025 drops to -5.4 (was -9.2 before)
- Euro area HCOB Construction PMI for September 2025 sits at 46.0 (hoping for 48.7; last time 46.7)
- U.K. New Car Sales for September 2025 zoom to 13.7% (expected 5.0%; last time -2.0%) 🚗
- U.K S&P Global Construction PMI for September 2025 is a tad better at 46.2 (was 45.3; last time 45.5)
- Euro area Retail Sales for August 2025 is a mild 0.1% m/m (forecasted 0.2%; last -0.5%); 1.0% y/y (wanted 2.0%; last 2.2%)
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Monday’s sesh was a wild ride with crazy gains all around, thanks to the chaos in Japan and France and zero wins on the US shutdown front bringing big cash flows. 💰
Gold was the real MVP, busting past $3,900 for the first time evar! It hopped up 1% to touch $3,970.00 per ounce, setting a fresh new record. Everyone's loving it as a safe bet due to that weak yen and the never-ending US shutdown, plus the Fed rate cut hype pumped up gold’s vibe even more. 💪
Bitcoin was on a tear today too, chilling around $125,300 after peaking at $126,300. Experts are dubbing this whole move into gold and crypto as the “debasement trade,” acting as a shield against governments just throwin' money away and politically wildin' out. 💸
S&P 500 went up 0.30% to wrap up at 6,740.28, while Nasdaq (our tech buddy 🖥️) jumped 0.71%, high-fiving with a big help from AMD after they spilled the tea about a mega partnership with OpenAI.
WTI oil got a glow up too when OPEC+ decided on a super chill production increase, sending crude futures above $62.00 a barrel after a big 7.4% dip last week. Traders were like "Phew!" that OPEC+ didn’t go too wild with the increase.
The 10-year Treasury yield nudged up to 4.16% as the bond huddle likely still vibes with potential hits to the economy from the shutdown, and the trend to peep gold and BTC for safety. Plus, Japan’s election result went big on stimulus, which usually gives stocks a happy dance. 🕺
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The Almighty Dollar did its own lil dance on Monday, getting beefed up during the Asian and early London hangs then switching lanes during US hours, ending the day mixed against the major squad.
The Japanese yen just ghosted, hitting its biggest single-day plummet against the dollar in five months - down 1.9% to trade at 150.35 per dollar, wiping out the last two months' gains. This dramatic drop came as folks thought future PM Takaichi would go soft on fiscal and monetary policies. 🎢
The dollar's early power-up in Asia was boosted by the yen flopping and safe-haven vibes between the French polit-drama tea spilling. But by the AM London sesh, people took in some spicy ECB talks about how the current rates aren’t budging.
When the U.S. market opened, the dollar took a breather as traders probs cashed in and flipped positions with the shutdown stuck AF. No government stats means markets were like, “Where we at?!” and felt kinda lost in the afternoon.
By the wrap-up, the dollar ended up being kinda neutral–ish to a little weaker, with all the yen chaos and drama casting a shadow over usual market rhythms. 🌑
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence for September 30, 2025 at 9:00 pm GMT
- Japan Household Spending for August 2025 at 11:30 pm GMT
- Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads for September 2025 at 12:30 am GMT
- Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence for October 2025 at 12:30 am GMT
- Germany Factory Orders for August 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K. Halifax House Price Index for September 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
- New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index for October 7, 2025
- Canada Balance of Trade for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Balance of Trade for August 2025
- Canada Ivey PMI s.a for September 2025 at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Bostic Speech at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Bowman Speech at 2:05 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Miran Speech at 2:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Kashkari Speech at 3:30 pm GMT
- Euro area ECB President Lagarde Speech at 4:10 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Miran Speech at 8:05 pm GMT
- U.S. API Crude Oil Stock Change for October 3, 2025 at 8:30 pm GMT
Tuesday’s a big one with a whole squad of Federal Reserve peeps on deck, likely chatting about money moves while the shutdown keeps blocking keys from the data vault. The Senate is sched for a vote today on some sorta stopgap cash flow, but peeps don’t think it’ll pass ‘cause Dems wanna chat healthcare, while the GOP’s like, "let’s just settle the shutdown part first.”
With the shutdown in round two and showing no chill, Fed officers’ hot takes are gonna be scrutinized for clues on how they’re chillin' about an economy without the numbers. Any whisper about their patience swaggin' without the deets or shifts in their money game could shake up currencies and bonds in a major way. 🧐
Stay woke out there trading fam and remember to smash our Forex Correlation Calculator before locking in those trades! 💼
