Daily Vibe Check on the Market – July 14, 2025

Yo, markets came out swingin' on Monday as traders were chewin' over Trump's newest tariff salvo and got hyped for fresh inflation deets. 📈😅

With headlines zoomin' around and risk vibes flippin' like a TikTok dance, prices were all over the map, like, seriously chaotic. 🤪

Peep these headlines you mighta missed in the last trading sessions! 👀

Headlines:

• US Prez Trump threatened 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican goods startin’ Aug 1. 🛑
• Straight from Down Under, Oz PM Albanese is chillin’ with China over their extra steel hype. 🏗️
• NZ Composite NZ PCI for June hit 48.3 (46.0 was the deal; 44.3 last time). 📊
• NZ Services NZ PSI for June noted 47.3 (45.6 was expected; 44.0 before).
• Japan machinery buzz for May: 4.4% y/y (Thought it’d be 5.5% y/y; was 6.6% y/y); -0.6% m/m (Expected 0.5% m/m; -9.1% m/m was the previous stat). 🤖
• China balance of trade for June: 114.77B (Called at 100.0B; last read at 103.22B)
• China imports for June: 1.1% y/y (2.5% y/y was the water cooler talk; -3.4% y/y prior)
• China exports for June: 5.8% y/y (Hoped for 5.5% y/y; 4.8% y/y was last seen)
• Japan final industrial numbers for May: -2.4% y/y (-1.8% y/y thought of; 0.5% y/y previously); -0.1% m/m (Expected 0.5% m/m; was -1.1% m/m). 🏭
• German 30-year yield flexin’ at a 21-month high, with those 10-year ones hittin’ peak since April after Trump’s EU tariff drop. 📈✨
• EU extended their no-go on US trade countermeasures till Aug 1 for chill talks. 🤝
• Reuters says five ECB homies ain’t sweatin’ US tariff threats messing with rate pause plans next week. 🧘‍♀️
• Swiss producer & import prices for June: -0.1% m/m (0.1% m/m was expected; -0.5% m/m before); -0.7% y/y (-0.6% y/y hoped; -0.7% y/y prior).
• FOMC’s Hammack: No rate cut panic, inflation is still too lit 🔥
• Canada wholesale sales last: 0.1% m/m (-0.4% m/m was the guess; -2.3% m/m was seen before).
• US Prez Trump threatened a BIG 100% tariffs and all kinds of serious on Russia if Ukraine peace isn’t achieved in the next 50 days!

Broad Market Price Action:

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Major assets went bananas Monday as traders priced in the global trade tea and geared up for the latest earnings szn. Over in Europe, the UK’s FTSE 100 popped off 0.41% to close at a new all-time high of 8,998.07. 🙌 Meanwhile, Germany’s DAX dipped 0.94%, and France’s CAC 40 shrunk 0.44%, both feelin' Trump's 30% tariff heat on EU goods. 🥵

U.S. stocks stayed solid. The Nasdaq hit another record high at 20,640.33, up 0.27%, with traders crossing fingers for deals before the August deadline. 🤞

In the bond arena, the 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.43%, brushing up against one-month highs as traders weighed inflation vibes from the tariffs versus the odds of Fed rate cuts. Gold got a safe-haven boost early on but turned south to finish at $3,342 once the trade talks between the U.S., EU, Mexico, Brazil, and friends gained momentum. 🌟

Oil went on a rollercoaster. WTI crude spiked to $69.60 with possible Russia sanctions talk, then sank to $66.98 by the end, down 2.15%, as the U.S.'s 50-day timer gave markets a bit of breathing room. 😤 Bitcoin kept flexing and hit a fresh record high of $123,236 before chilling around $120,000. 💪🔥

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView

The Greenback started strong, flexin' at three-week highs in Asia as Trump's 30% tariff threats on the EU and Mexico triggered safe-play vibes. 💵 The party didn't last, tho, as risk appetite crept back in during the Euro session after signs that both Brussels and Mexico City still wanna talk it out before the August 1 showdown. 🤝

EUR/USD bounced off early lows near 1.1650 and made a dash to 1.1700 after EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic mentioned he’d hit up U.S. peeps later in the day. The pound took an L, droppin' 0.55% as traders braced for potential BOE cuts. Aussie n’ Kiwi fell behind, with AUD/USD down 0.47% and NZD/USD slipping 0.55%. 🏳️

The dollar found new energy during U.S. hours after Fed’s Hammack emphasized chill-mode on policy, and Trump stirred the pot with a 100% tariff bomb on Russia if no Ukraine peace vibe clicks within 50 days. By session’s end, the dollar index scored a sixth straight win, marking its best streak this year. 🏆

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• Germany ZEW economic sentiment index for July at 9:00 am GMT
• Euro Area industrial production for May at 9:00 am GMT
• Euro Area ZEW economic sentiment index for July at 9:00 am GMT
• Canada housing starts for June at 12:15 pm GMT
• Canada new motor vehicle sales for May at 12:30 pm GMT
• Canada manufacturing sales final for May at 12:30 pm GMT
• Canada consumer price index growth rate for June at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. consumer price index for June at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. NY Empire State manufacturing index for July at 12:30 pm GMT
• FOMC member speeches
  • US Fed Bowman speaks at 1:15 pm GMT
  • US Fed Barr chats at 4:45 pm GMT
  • US Fed Collins takes the mic at 6:45 pm GMT
• UK BOE Gov Bailey speaks at 8:00 pm GMT
• US API crude oil stock change for July 11 at 8:30 pm GMT
• Japan Reuters Tankan index for July at 11:00 pm GMT

The London sesh might bring some lit euro action as traders react to Germany and Euro Area ZEW vibes and industrial output, with weak data likely giving the euro a hard time. 👀💥

In the U.S. sesh, all eyes on CPI reports from both the U.S. and Canada at 12:30 pm GMT, with dollar and Loonie pairs goin’ extra depending on how the inflation tunes align with rate cut predictions. 📈💼

BTW, stay glued to the updates for any trade-related moves affecting “risk” and safe-play currencies! 😉

As per usual, stay flexible and don’t forget to scope out our Forex Correlation Calculator when sittin' on trades! 🔍📊