This article has been translated from English to Gen Z Slang.
The Middle East is on fire, literally 🔥, and the markets be quakin' on Tuesday. Oil's popping off, stocks took an L, and Treasury yields are like, see ya! 👋
With Trump's savage Iran stance and U.S. data lookin' trash 🗑, everybody's vibin' with the dollar—it's flexin' its muscles like it hasn't in a hot minute. 💪 Investors are on edge, watching for a lil U.S. military drama. 🎭
Here's all the tea you might've snoozed through during those trading sessions! 📰
Headlines: 🚨
- Ships got cozy near the Strait of Hormuz, but it was no biggie.
- Bank of Japan ain't budging on those 0.5% rates, and them bond purchases are still in slow-mo.
- U.S. and U.K. made a trade handshake, but steel imports got beef.
- Germany ZEW economic vibes for June are 47.5 (predicted 32.0; last 25.2).
- Euro area ZEW index of smiles and frowns for June: 35.3 (it was supposed to be 5.0; last 11.6).
- Canada's foreign securities buys for April: a savage -9.36B (-4.23B before).
- ECB's Villeroy says rates are chill, but wants "flexi-prags" amid the Israel-Iran drama.
- U.S. retail sales for May low-key disappointing: -0.9% m/m (expected -0.4% m/m; previous 0.1% m/m); 3.3% y/y (expected 4.9% y/y; previous 5.2% y/y).
- U.S. industrial output for May: -0.2% (expected 0.1%; last time 0.0%); 0.6% y/y (expected 1.1% y/y; previous 1.5% y/y).
- U.S. business inventories for April are flat: 0.0% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.1%).
- U.S. NAHB housing market index for June: 32.0 (expected 37.0; previous 34.0), rock bottom since 2012. 📉
- Trump's out here demanding Iran 'say uncle' while the Israel-Iran air feud goes wild.
- U.S. is switching lanes on ICE limits, cutting farms, restaurants, hotels, and food plants some slack.
- International Energy Agency thinks oil's gonna stay lit through 2029 despite China peakin'.
- Trump's giving TikTok another 90-day lifeline. TikTokers rejoice. 🎉
- Canada's about to ghost 40+ Russian entities while saying "We stan with Ukraine."
Broad Market Price Action: 🎢
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Markets went full-on risk-off mode on Tuesday 'cause Middle East vibes were all up in everyone's faces. 😰
The S&P 500 took an L, down 0.8%, thanks to some bum U.S. stats dragging on fears of military drama in the Israel-Iran theater. And European markets were like, "We'll pass," with Germany’s DAX down 1.1%, France’s CAC 40 down 0.8%, and the FTSE 100 slipping 0.5% 'cause geopolitics ain't playing nice. 🎭
Crude oil was today's MVP, though. WTI shot up over $3, finishing at $73.30—its fleekest since late January—after Trump shook them Iran worries like a maraca. And Treasuries were literally trending, pulling the 10-year yield lower by 7 basis points to 4.38%. Meanwhile, gold was chillin' flat near $3,380, not minding all the hullabaloo.
Bitcoin's aura wasn't money, though, dropping to $104,500 from last week's high of $109,350; guess crypto ain't the homie when everyone's low-key shook. 😕
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The U.S. dollar was so extra on Tuesday, having its glow-up like no other time this month. 🌟 Global drama was the main character, kicking off mad shaky during the Asian session. ✨ Prez Trump ditched his G7 squad, which had folks all stressed about rising diplomacy drama. Meanwhile, Japan's sticking to their script. BOJ ain’t raising rates above 0.5%, and bond tapers go slooow. Gov Ueda's not pushing buttons yet, just peeping what's good on U.S.-Japan deal vibes.
The Euro session wasn't giving either. German ZEW sentiment was dope, outperforming, but markets just chilled while waiting for something juicier.
The real juice spilled during the States' session when Israel hinted that Uncle Sam could get involved with Iran real soon. This sent peeps rushing into safe vibes, boosting the dollar hard. Trump's national security confab only deepened the drama.
Even with some sus U.S. data on retail and industrial snoozin', the Greenback held strong. With anxiety serving up the spice, traders were arguing for feels over fundamentals, crowning the dollar as the head honcho. 👑
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar 📅
- New Zealand Westpac consumer confidence for June 30 at 9:00 pm GMT.
- New Zealand Q1 2025 current account vibes at 10:45 pm GMT.
- Japan Reuters Tankan index brings the vibes for June at 11:00 pm GMT.
- Japan machinery orders for April at 11:50 pm GMT.
- Japan trade receipts for May at 11:50 pm GMT.
- U.K. retail price index hits the charts for May at 6:00 am GMT.
- U.K.'s May consumer prices growth rate drops at 6:00 am GMT.
- Euro Area's April current account tea-party at 8:00 am GMT.
- Euro Area gets hype with its consumer prices index growth rate final for May at 9:00 am GMT.
- New Zealand's Global Dairy Trade price vibes for June 17.
- U.S. housing starts and building permits for May at 12:30 pm GMT.
- U.S. initial jobless claims convos for June 14 at 12:30 pm GMT.
- U.S. EIA oil stocks shake-up for June 13 at 2:30 pm GMT.
- Euro Area ECB Lane spilling speech themes at 3:00 pm GMT.
- Canada BOC Macklem is speaking their truth at 3:15 pm GMT.
- U.S. FOMC minute tea session and projections finna fly at 6:00 pm GMT.
- U.S. overall net capital flows for April available at 8:00 pm GMT.
- New Zealand GDP growth wave for Q1 2025 at 10:45 pm GMT.
Expect some spicy European session moves with GBP and EUR pairs reacting to U.K.’s inflation madness and ECB gossip potentially dropping some rate clues. 💷💶
The real fiesta will be during the U.S. session, when the Fed busts out policy deets and projections, causing big vibes for USD and other risk arenas. 🎇
Get comfy with your screen during the crashes and waves so you can catch that next big move you’ve been waitin’ on! 📊
As per usual, stay agile and don’t forget to flex the Forex Correlation Calculator before locking in those trades! 🔄
