Dollar Halo-Halo Habang U.S. Services Industry Patuloy na Lumalago Habang Private Payrolls Huminto

Mid-tier U.S. data presented a nuanced picture of the economy, with the services sector maintaining steady growth while private sector job creation slowed to a crawl in January, prompting mixed movements in the U.S. dollar across major currency pairs.

Key Takeaways

ADP National Employment Report:

• Private sector employment increased by just 22,000 jobs in January
• Annual pay growth held at 4.5% year-over-year
• Job creation for full-year 2025 totaled 398,000, down significantly from 771,000 in 2024
• Education and health services led with 74,000 new jobs
• Manufacturing continued its decline, shedding 8,000 jobs
• Professional and business services contracted by 57,000 positions
• Large establishments (500+ employees) cut 18,000 jobs

ISM Services PMI:

• Services PMI held at 53.8% for the second consecutive month, marking the 19th straight month of expansion
• New Orders Index declined to 53.1% (down 3.4 percentage points from December’s 56.5%)
• Employment Index edged down to 50.3% (from December’s 51.7%), expanding for the second consecutive month
• Prices Index climbed to 66.6% (up 1.5 percentage points), marking the 104th consecutive month of price increases

Ang modest na 22,000 ADP job gain ay malayo sa consensus expectations na 46,000 at previous na 37,000 increase, na nagpatibay sa concerns about labor market softening. Ini-interpret ito ng markets na potentially dovish para sa Federal Reserve policy, na nagre-reduce sa expectations para sa sustained hawkish positioning.

Sabi ni Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist sa ADP, “job creation took a step back in 2025,” binibigyang-diin ang “continuous and dramatic slowdown” sa nakaraang tatlong taon, kahit na ang wage growth ay nananatiling stable.

Link to official ADP Employment Change Report (January 2026)

Ang ISM Services data ay nagbigay ng counterbalance, na ang headline PMI ay tumugma sa December’s reading at ang Business Activity ay nagpakita ng acceleration. Gayunpaman, ang kombinasyon ng bumababang New Orders at mataas na price pressures ay nagpakita ng stagflationary concern na nagkomplikado sa trajectory ng dollar.

Binanggit ni ISM Services Business Survey Committee Chair Steve Miller ang mga positibong palatandaan, na sinasabi na ang January ay nagmarka ng “pangalawang buwan sa sunod ng lahat ng apat na subindexes na nasa expansion territory.” Gayunpaman, binigyang-babala niya na “ang closely watched Prices Index ay patuloy na tumataas,” na ngayon ay 0.2 percentage points above sa 12-month average nito na 66.4%.

Link to official ISM Services PMI (January 2026)

Ang mga respondent sa ISM survey ay binanggit din ang tariff uncertainty at geopolitical tensions bilang mga faktor na nakakaapekto sa kanilang business decisions. Sabi ng isang respondent mula sa accommodation at food services, “Ang kawalan ng katiyakan ng U.S. tariff policies ay patuloy na nakakaapekto sa aming purchasing.”

Market Reactions

U.S. Dollar vs. Major Currencies: 5-min

Ang U.S. dollar, na bahagyang bumababa bago ang ADP at ISM reports, ay nagpakita ng mixed reactions pagkatapos ng sabay na data releases sa 8:15 AM ET at 10:00 AM ET respectively.

Ang weaker-than-expected ADP employment figure ay nag-trigger ng panandaliang pagbaba sa ilang dollar pairs, partikular sa JPY (+0.28%) at CHF (+0.20%) sa mga minuto pagkatapos ng release. Ang losses laban sa ibang counterparts, gayunpaman, ay nanatiling limitado habang ang dollar strength ay bumalik bago ang ISM release.

Ang net positive underlying metrics mula sa services sector survey ay nag-lead sa mas pronounced rallies para sa USD, partikular laban sa AUD (+0.53%) at NZD (+0.61%) na nag-hold sa kanilang gains hanggang sa pagtatapos ng New York market hours. Sa pagtatapos ng session, ang dollar ay nagsara nang mas mataas across the board, habang ang markets ay malamang na hinusgahan na ang steady services sector expansion at wage growth ay nagre-reflect pa rin ng economic resilience.

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