Daily Rundown of the Market Vibes – July 24, 2025

Yo fam, the global flash PMI readings were straight-up popping off in the early hours, until everyone’s attention got yeeted over to the ECB's money moves. 🌟

Folks were feeling a touch of hope for those EU-US squad goals in the trade talks, so some risk-taking was def on the menu. 📈 But real talk, U.S. stock indices were all over the place by closing time, thanks to those spicy earnings drops. 🔥

Catch the tea you might’ve missed in the last trading sessions! 📊💼

Headlines 🚨:

• Australia S&P Global Services PMI Flash for July 2025: 53.8 (51.2 forecast; 51.8 previous)
• Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for July 2025: 51.6 (50.4 forecast; 50.6 previous)
• RBA Governor Bullock: Q2 core inflation probs didn’t chill as much as expected
• RBNZ Chief Economist Conway: Tariffs will mean global vibes will be weaker, weaker demand too
• Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash for July 2025: 53.5 (51.3 forecast; 51.7 previous)
• Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash for July 2025: 48.8 (50.3 forecast; 50.1 previous)
• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence for August 2025: -21.5 (-20.0 forecast; -20.3 previous)
• European Commission Prez von der Leyen linked up with China’s Prez Xi, dropped a vibe about keeping things balanced
• EU is chatting it up with U.S. but the squad is ready to clap back with countertariffs if things go sour before the August 1 deadline
• Euro area HCOB Services PMI Flash for July 2025: 51.2 (50.8 forecast; 50.5 previous)
• Euro area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for July 2025: 49.8 (49.9 forecast; 49.5 previous)
  • France Business Confidence for July 2025: 96.0 (95.0 forecast; 96.0 previous)
  • France HCOB Services PMI Flash for July 2025: 49.7 (50.0 forecast; 49.6 previous)
  • France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for July 2025: 48.4 (49.1 forecast; 48.1 previous)
  • Germany HCOB Services PMI Flash for July 2025: 50.1 (50.5 forecast; 49.7 previous)
  • Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for July 2025: 49.2 (49.5 forecast; 49.0 previous)
• U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for July 2025: 48.2 (48.5 forecast; 47.7 previous)
• U.K. S&P Global Services PMI Flash for July 2025: 51.2 (52.9 forecast; 52.8 previous)
• U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Orders for July 2025: -30.0 (-27.0 forecast; -33.0 previous)
  • U.K. CBI Business Optimism Index for September 30, 2025: -27.0 (-31.0 forecast; -33.0 previous)
• U.S. Building Permits Final for June 2025: -0.1% m/m to 1.39M (0.2% m/m forecast; -2.0% m/m previous)
• Euro area ECB Interest Rate Decision for July 24, 2025: 2.15% (2.15% forecast; 2.15% previous)
  • Euro area Deposit Facility Rate for July 24, 2025: 2.0% (2.0% forecast; 2.0% previous)
  • Euro area Marginal Lending Rate for July 24, 2025: 2.4% (2.4% forecast; 2.4% previous)
• Canada Retail Sales for May 2025: 4.9% y/y (4.0% y/y forecast; 5.0% y/y previous); -1.1% m/m (-1.1% forecast; 0.3% previous)
  • Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos for May 2025: -0.2% m/m (-0.2% m/m forecast; -0.3% m/m previous)
  • Canada Manufacturing Sales Prel for June 2025: 0.4% m/m (0.4% m/m forecast; -0.9% m/m previous)
  • Canada Retail Sales Prel for June 2025: 1.6% m/m (-0.3% m/m forecast; -1.1% m/m previous)
• U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June 2025: -0.1 (-0.1 forecast; -0.28 previous)
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for July 19, 2025: 217.0k (225.0k forecast; 221.0k previous)
• ECB Prez Lagarde said during the ECB chat that the economy is “vibing” and they’re sticking to their chill mode on easing
• U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for July 2025: 49.5 (52.7 forecast; 52.9 previous)
• U.S. S&P Global Services PMI Flash for July 2025: 55.2 (52.9 forecast; 52.9 previous)
• U.S. New Home Sales for June 2025: 0.6% m/m to 0.63M (10.0% m/m forecast; -13.7% m/m previous)
• U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick was like, "The EU and South Korea are mega down to make a deal”
• U.S. EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change for July 18, 2025: 23.0Bcf (46.0Bcf previous)

Broad Market Price Action 🔄:

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Early Thursday saw peeps betting on risk, with bitcoin getting a lil boost and crude oil chilling in its zone, while gold kinda took a nap in the Asian session. Traders are still cautiously hopeful af, especially with that EU-China hangout just around the corner. 📅🤝

Crude oil was vibing hard in the London sesh, mostly 'cause of spicy geopolitical drama between Thailand and Cambodia, plus the U.S. signing off on defense gear sales to Egypt. 🛢️🌍

Flash PMI data outta Europe had positive vibes, showing things were slowing down less in both manufacturing and services. London markets loved it! 💸 It probs helped that von der Leyen and Xi were having some trade chat love, but then peeps got a lil anxious when the EU was ready to drop the countertariffs bomb if things with the U.S. go south. 💣

U.S. flashed mixed signals with its PMI data, raining on the early risk-on parade, leading Treasury yields to sag and gold to shine a bit. Bitcoin held its ground around the $119K mark after a previous bounce off that $117K support zone. Meanwhile, Wall Street wrapped things with mixed vibes post-earnings fiesta. 📊💥

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors 💵:

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView

The global flash PMIs totally caught the market’s vibes during the Asian and London sessions. Australia was flexin’ some improvements in both the manufacturing and services sectors, while Japan’s manufacturing—plot twist—dipped back into contraction land. 😱 Down Under, the Aussie was getting some extra love thanks to RBA boss Bullock dropping less-gloomy deets about Q2 inflation. 🎉

Over in the euro zone, Germany and France’s PMI stories were pretty much what people expected, signaling a slower pace of shrinkage in the neighborhood. The UK had a mixed bag—manufacturing came in a bit better, but services were like, "Nah, we're good." 🙃

The euro was feeling itself after the ECB took a chill pill on rates, with Lagarde saying that the economy’s "in a good place," sticking to their cautious easy-breezy plans. 💁‍♀️

Mixed signals from the U.S. flash PMIs sent a low-key shade wave the dollar’s way, except the Loonie was feeling a bit under the weather after Canada served weaker retail sales numbers. By the end of the session, the dollar slipped on its gains across the board as peeps kept one eye on those ongoing global trade chats. 🌎💬

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar ⏰

• Japan Leading Indicators Index at 5:00 am GMT 📋
• U.K. Retail Sales at 6:00 am GMT 🛍️
• France Consumer Confidence at 6:45 am GMT 🤔
• Germany Ifo Business Climate at 8:00 am GMT 🌥️
• Euro area Loans to Households at 8:00 am GMT 🏡
• Euro area Loans to Companies at 8:00 am GMT 💼
• Euro area M3 Money Supply at 8:00 am GMT 💰
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders at 12:30 pm GMT 🚚
• Canada Budget Balance at 3:00 pm GMT 🍁💸

Today’s lineup is light on the high-temp drops, but keep those peepers peeled for the U.K. retail sales report and German Ifo biz climate index in the London session, plus the U.S. durable goods orders report might shake things up during NYC hours. 🌆📈

Unless the data spills hot tea, expect the vibe to be set by headline drama and trade talks. Keep it 100 and up-to-date with the action. 📰 And of course, peep our Forex Correlation Calculator to make sure your trades are fire! 🔥🐱‍💻