This article has been translated from English to Gen Z Slang.
Markets were a straight-up mood swing yesterday as peeps tried to make sense of weak US jobs data, spicy trade news, and that juicy gossip about government spending in the US and UK. 😅
Stocks and Bitcoin decided to flex, gold was all about them Fed rate cut vibes, and oil went full send after Iran decided to ghost nuclear inspectors. 💪
Here’s some tea you might’ve missed in the last trading sessions! 📰
Headlines:
- New Zealand NZIER business confidence for June 30: 22.0% (6.0% forecast; 19.0% previous) 👀
- New Zealand building permits for May: 10.4% m/m (-1.8% m/m forecast; -15.6% m/m previous) 🏗️
- Australia S&P Global manufacturing PMI final for June 🇦🇺
- Japan Tankan large manufacturers index for June 30: 13.0 (10.0 forecast; 12.0 previous); Non-manufacturer index at 34.0 (34.0 forecast; 35.0 previous) 🇯🇵
- Australia retail sales for May: 0.2% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m previous) 🛍️
- Australia building permits prel for May: 3.2% m/m (5.2% m/m forecast; -5.7% m/m previous) 🏠
- Australia private house approvals prel for May: 0.5% m/m (0.5% m/m forecast; 3.1% m/m previous) ✨
- Iran’s President tells the UN nuclear inspectors, "Bye, Felicia!" 🤷♂️
- U.K. bond prices and GBP tumbled after Finance Minister Reeves got all emotional following the government’s rethink on benefits 💸
- Euro Area unemployment rate for May: 6.3% (6.2% forecast; 6.2% previous) 🔍
- U.S. Challenger job cuts for June: 48.0k (110.0k forecast; 93.82k previous) 💔
- U.S. ADP national employment report for June: -33.0k (90.0k forecast; 37.0k previous) 🙀
- U.S. President Trump got that preliminary trade deal with Vietnam in the bag! 🇺🇸🇻🇳
- Canada S&P Global manufacturing PMI for June: 45.6 (47.2 forecast; 46.1 previous) 🍁
- U.S. EIA crude oil stocks change for June 27: 3.85M (-5.84M previous) 🛢️
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Markets gave us a real wild ride Wednesday 'cause investors were still reeling from all the spicy news and prepped for the jobs report showdown on Thursday. 📉📈 The S&P 500 climbed 0.5% like a boss to hit a fresh record, and the Nasdaq flexed 0.9% to 20,393. Even European equities wanted in on the action — Germany's DAX up 0.3% and France's CAC 40 hopped in with a 1.2% jump, but London's FTSE 100 was just vibing with a 0.1% move 'cause UK fiscal tea had everyone nervous. ☕️
Gold was feeling itself, climbing 0.6% to $3,360 'cause everyone was like, "Fed rate cuts, am I right?" 💰 The 10-year Treasury yield was up 4 basis points to 4.29% 'cause government spend-a-thon got folks jittery after the Senate passed Trump’s tax bill 🎢
WTI crude was on a bender, spiking 3.1% to $67.45 'cause of Iran's moves, even though the inventory data was dragging with gasoline demand down at just 8.6 million barrels daily. 😬 Bitcoin was surfing the high vibes, rallying 3.5% to $109,000 on that Vietnam trade tea, positioning for potential Fed moves, and eyeing the July 9 tariff deadline. 📅
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
Dollar was living that rollercoaster life on Wednesday. 🎢 Started strong like an early morning vibe check in Asia but turned shaky when the ugly ADP print dropped, showing a surprise looong down in 33,000 jobs at 8:15 AM ET. 😬
That 'L' had the dollar wheezing, and EUR/USD bounced from 1.1755 to 1.1800 quick. USD/JPY dipped below 143.50 too. The dollar tried for a comeback, but by London time, Trump spilled the Vietnam trade deets, freaking investors out who thought this might become the new normal—playing hardball globally and putting the U.S. economy on tilt right before July 9's deadline. 🤦♂️
Sterling took the biggest hit, dropping almost 1% to 1.3634 after Chancellor Reeves couldn’t keep it together in Parliament about reversing those welfare reforms. 🎭 Confidence in the UK money scene got kicked, sending gilts down. Even though the dollar stumbled in places, it still closed flexing against most majors like EUR, JPY, GBP, and NZD. AUD and CAD were the only ones not to blink. 👊
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Swiss consumer price index for June at 6:30 am GMT 🇨🇭
- Germany HCOB services PMI final for June at 7:55 am GMT 🇩🇪
- Euro area HCOB services PMI final for June at 8:00 am GMT 🏦
- U.K. S&P Global services PMI final for June at 8:30 am GMT 🇬🇧
- Euro Area ECB monetary policy meeting accounts at 11:30 am GMT 🏦
- Canada balance of trade for May at 12:30 pm GMT 🇨🇦
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U.S. NFP reports
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. unemployment rate for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. average hourly earnings for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. initial jobless claims for June 28 at 12:30 pm GMT 🔍
- U.S. S&P Global services PMI final for June at 1:45 pm GMT 🔎
- U.S. factory orders for May at 2:00 pm GMT 🏭
- U.S. ISM services business activity for June at 2:00 pm GMT 🚀
- U.S. factory orders ex transportation for May at 2:00 pm GMT 🚗
- U.S. Fed Bostic speech at 3:00 pm GMT 💬
- Japan household spending for May at 11:30 pm GMT 📊
The European session is gonna be lit with final services PMIs and ECB tea, especially if there’s a plot twist in policy or surprise economic deets. 🤞
The real drama's saved for the U.S. session when labor stats like nonfarm payrolls could either keep the Fed in check or shake things up, dictating the dollar’s vibe. 💸
Always stay woke, and don’t forget to peep our Forex Correlation Calculator before making moves! 🔍
