This article has been translated from English to Gen Z Slang.
Tariffs decided to be the main character again today 🙄, with Trump tossing the spotlight back onto those high-key trade levies for chips and semiconductors, not to mention potential oil-related sanctions. 🌽
The BOE decision was the major tea spill ☕️ with this “hawkish cut” that had fewer hypebeasts voting for easing than we all expected. Shook? Same. 😲
Peep these headlines you might’ve snoozed over during the last trading sessions! 💁♀️
Headlines:
- Trump's ready to throw down with extra 15% tariffs on Japan, doubling down on that chips and semis drama
- U.S. Secretary of State Rubio shut down those Trump-Putin call rumors like a pro 💨
- Australia Building Permits MoM Final for June 2025: 11.9% (11.9% forecast; 3.2% previous) 🔨🏗️
-
Australia Balance of Trade for June 2025: 5.37B vs 3.8B forecast; previous was 2.24B. 🇦🇺💰
- Australia Imports MoM for June 2025: -3.1% when 3.8% was in the tea leaves
- Australia Exports MoM for June 2025: 6.0% when they thought -2.7%
-
China Balance of Trade for July 2025: 98.24B vs. the dreamy 117.3B forecast; previous was 114.77B. 🇨🇳🔍
- China Exports YoY for July 2025: 7.2%—we beat the 5.1% vibes, y'all!
- China Imports YoY for July 2025: 4.1%, which slayed the forecast of -1.3%!
- New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations for Sep 30, 2025: 2.28%, living that overachieving life (1.8% forecast; 2.29% previous)
- China continued to hoard gold like a dragon for the ninth month in a row 🐉✨
- Japan Leading Economic Index Prel for June 2025: 106.1 (105.5 forecast; 104.8 previous) 🗾📈
- Trump said billions are sliding into the U.S. as reciprocal tariffs drop like it's hot 💸
- Trump’s on that Bitcoin hustle, signing off an executive order letting 401(k)s go crypto and invest in alternative real estate assets 🌐🏠🤑
- Japan's growth goals took an L, hung up on trade policy doubts
- Germany Balance of Trade for June 2025: 14.9B while dreaming of 17.9B (previous flexed at 18.4B) 🇩🇪💸
- Germany Exports MoM for June 2025: 0.8%, although peeps were feeling 0.5% vibes (-1.4% previous)
- Germany Imports MoM for June 2025: 4.2% (0.9% forecast; -3.8% previous)
- Germany Industrial Production MoM for June 2025: -1.9% (called at -0.8% vibes; hit 1.2% before)
- U.K. Halifax House Price Index for July 2025: 2.4% (betting on 2.2% but showed up at 2.5% before)
- Swiss Unemployment Rate for July 2025: hanging steady at 2.7% (they knew it, we knew it) 🇨🇭
- Bank of England surprised no one by cutting interest rates from 4.25% to 4.00%, but it was a spicy 5-4 MPC vote (we all expected 8-1) 🏦
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said trades are “mostly wrapped up,” dreaming of a $300 billion sugar rush from tariffs 🍬✨
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for Aug 2, 2025: 222K (226K was a nice expectation, 218K was yesterday) 🔮
- U.S. Unit Labor Costs QoQ for Q2 2025: 2.0% (envisioned at 1.6%, reminiscing 6.6%)
- U.S. Non-Farm Productivity QoQ for Q2 2025: 1.8% (shot higher than the 2.4% forecast; was -1.5%) 🚜💼
- Canada Ivey PMI for July 2025: showed up at 54.5 (everyone thought 55.8, was 53.3) 🍁
- Fed's Bostic says eco vibes are solid 💪 but def mentioned jobs are slowing and tariffs are putting pressure for real; suggested maybe ONE rate cut this year 🤑
- U.S. Consumer Inflation Expectations for July 2025: 3.0% (expected 3.1%, holding steady at 3.0%)
- President Trump picked Stephen Miran to step into Kugler’s Fed shoes, no inflation fear from tariffs 🎢
- Trump's team put their money on Fed official Waller to replace Chairperson Powell 🎯
- U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick hinted at extending the trade deadline with China for a cool 90 days
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
The market was basically vibing in a chill zone during the early Asian session, except for crude oil which decided to get hyper after White House reps ghosted those Trump-Putin call rumors. 🔊📞
Trump was out there low-key yelling about sanctions on nations grabbing Russian oil, hitting China, plus throwing shade with 15% more tariffs on Japan and 100% on chips and semis! 😤💢
Gold sparkled brighter as the session kept going, probably chilling with those safe-haven flows plus the news that China’s been adding to its gold stash for nine months straight. 🌟 Meanwhile, Bitcoin flexed up right at the start of the London session, after deets dropped that Trump signed off on Bitcoin for retirement funds, grabbing back that $117K crown before the U.S. day was out 🏆💪.
Equities were on that emotional rollercoaster 🎢, snugged up a bit with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s vibe check on trade deals being “mostly done” and $300 billion worth of tariff payday potential. But then all that hype took an L when more job data flops dragged up last week’s NFP miss back into the spotlight. 😬📉
U.S. stock indices found a way to do a tiny bounce-back before closing, thanks to some intel that made Trump’s peeps look toward dovish Fed official Waller possibly stepping in for Chairperson Powell, turning up the heat for lower loan rates in the future 🔮💸.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The Golden Dollar was kinda meh, starting Thursday’s session slightly on its backfoot. USD/JPY tried to dip, then sprang back like a rubber band as Trump dropped that 15% Japan tariff buzz. 📉💥
Broad dollar weakness was riding the vibe train with trade tensions picking up again, as Trump kept shading with more tariff talk and the whole sanctions-on-Russian-oil thing. 💸 But dollar bears decided to chill a bit as starting the London session brought that cautious optimism glow, with Bessent saying trades were almost done. Meanwhile, the Pound was on a whole different wave, shooting up after the BOE's unexpected "hawkish cut" went down with fewer peeps voting for easing. 💷📈
USD bulls went full throttle as the U.S. day moved on, just brushing off the initial jobless claims and labor cost misses, because Fed official Bostic was insisting on only one rate cut. USD’s gains mostly came back home before the day was out though, as tea spilled on Trump’s squad eyeing the more chill-friendly Fed player Waller for that Chairperson spot. Reverting back towards lower rate vibes, yay 🤜🤛.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current for July 2025 at 5:00 am GMT ⏰🗾
- France Unemployment Rate for June 30, 2025 at 5:30 am GMT 🇫🇷📉
- Swiss Consumer Confidence for July 2025 at 7:00 am GMT 🇨🇭💬
- Canada Employment Report at 12:30 pm GMT
Not a lot of major eco bombs dropping early today, fam. Might just see some consolidation vibes before that high-key Canada jobs report hits during the NY session. 📈🙌
As per usual, stay tuned for any global trade drama or geo-political plot twists that could shake up the market feels. Stay sharp and be sure to hit up our Forex Correlation Calculator when planning those trades! 📊👌
