This article has been translated from English to Gen Z Slang.
Yo, Monday was kinda wild for the markets. 🌊 Traders were freaking out over this US-EU trade sitch and the potential US-China tariff tea. The dollar went zooming ⬆️ and European stocks were like "nope" and dropped. 😬
Meanwhile, Wall Street was flexin' with new highs, gold was takin' a nap, and oil was like "let's goooo" on them geopolitical vibes. UK data and that JOLTs report are about to set the next moves, fam. 🔥
Peep the headlines you might've missed from the last trading sessions!
Headlines:
- US and EU decided on a trade deal framework on Sunday, yay!
- China's industrial profits for June? -1.8% ytd/y (they were hoping for -0.5%, but you know 😩)
- China foreign direct investment for June also took an L: -15.2% ytd/y
- Word on the street via South China Morning Post: China and the US might extend their chill period on tariffs by another 90 days
- Some EU peeps weren't thrilled about the US-EU trade stats
- UK's CBI distributive trades for July were -34.0, better than last time but still kinda meh
- Canada's June wholesale sales prelim: 0.7% m/m, not bad fam! 📈
- OPEC+ was all about reminding everyone to keep those output limits in check
- US Dallas Fed manufacturing index for July: 0.9, way better than expected! 👏
- Trump shortened Russia’s peace deal deadline to “10 or 12 days” and was like, “nah fam, no more talks.” 😳
- Trump's got pharmaceutical tariffs on his to-do list 🔜
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
The big players were all over the map on Monday, trying to vibe with this US-EU trade deet from the weekend. Part of the deal includes a 15% tariff on EU goods, which is safer than the 30% they were throwing around. EU might cop $750 billion in U.S. energy and even said they'll invest another $600 billion with the US. 💱
European stocks started strong, but then hit snooze. 🚫 Germany’s DAX was like "yikes" after officials hinted the deal might still sting the economy. France’s CAC 40 and the FTSE 100 both dipped about 0.4%. 😩
Wall Street was on its grind. S&P 500 and Nasdaq served up fresh record closes with some gains. Gold was in snooze mode for the fourth day in a row as the dollar flexed. 💪 The 10-year Treasury yield went up to 4.42% as peeps prepped for the FOMC event. WTI oil went higher after Trump talked about maybe speeding up that Russia-Ukraine peace deadline and OPEC was like "don’t forget the quotas!" Bitcoin dropped to around 118,600 after baller status near 119,800. 💰📉
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The dollar was lit on Monday, having its best day since May. 🤑 With all the US-EU trade talk and that possible US-China move, the Greenback got the W everywhere—Asia, London, and the US were feeling the optimism vibes and eating up those headlines. 🚀
EUR/USD had the biggest L, slipping 1.3% to 1.1650 after EU peeps threw some shade on the deal terms. Ya boy the euro had its worst day in a hot minute—more than two months! Dollar index flexed up 1%, showing some broad strength 💪. USD/CHF hit new levels, smashing through 0.8000 after a week, and the pound dipped to 1.3407, its lowest since last Monday. 😱
The dollar kinda chilled for a hot sec at the NY open, but then woke up again thanks to the better-than-expected Dallas Fed index. Commod currencies were lowkey struggling all day, with both the Aussie and Kiwi losing 0.75%. Traders were backing the dollar, relieved that a full-on trade war was avoided and hoping the EU energy deal might narrow the US trade divide. 😇
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Euro Area ECB consumer inflation expectations for June at 8:00 am GMT
- U.K. mortgage lending for June at 8:30 am GMT
- U.K. M4 money supply for June at 8:30 am GMT
- U.K. BoE consumer credit for June at 8:30 am GMT
- U.K. mortgage approvals for June at 8:30 am GMT
- U.K. net lending to individuals for June at 8:30 am GMT
- U.S. wholesale inventories adv for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. retail inventories ex autos adv for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. goods trade balance adv for June at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller home price for May at 1:00 pm GMT
- U.S. house price index for May at 1:00 pm GMT
- U.S. JOLTs job openings for June at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. CB consumer confidence for July at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Dallas Fed services index for July at 2:30 pm GMT
- U.S. API crude oil stock change for July 25 at 8:30 pm GMT
A blast of U.K. credit and lending stats might shake up GBP pairs if they get BoE all hyped. In the US session, housing stats and that JOLTs report are the main act, with job openings probs shaping NFP guesses and Fed talk. 🤔
Oil traders are eyeing that API stock change, chillin' in the absence of any fresh geopolitical or mood swings. As always, stay on your toes and don't ignore our Forex Correlation Calculator when making those trades. 💼👌
