This article has been translated from English to Gen Z Slang.
The markets are basically playing it chill since it's Monday, waiting for them spicy US inflation numbers dropping on Tuesday, you know? 📈 Meanwhile, all the latest gossip on trade deals and the central bank squad is kinda setting the vibe.
The dollar was feeling a bit meh at the start but did a lil' flip by the time we hit the European sesh. Everyone's bracing themselves for that CPI tea spill. ☕️
Catch up with these headlines you might've swiped past in the last trading sesh! 📲
Headlines:
- Over the weekend, FOMC member Bowman is all for cutting rates at what's left of this year's meetups. Dude's all about those job market vibes. 👨💼💼
- Nvidia and AMD gotta fork out 15% of their China chip monies to Uncle Sam 💰
- U.S. and China found a chill spot and are cool for another 90 days of no more tariffs 😌
- Prez Trump was like, nah, gold ain't getting any tariffs, chief
- Trump's dropped EJ Antoni into the top spot at the Bureau of Labor Stats because why not 🤷♂️
- Brazil's finance guru Fernando Haddad had to nope out of his virtual chat with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and there's no new date hang on it 🤔
- According to Bloomberg, the Fed Chair gig might have Bowman's name on it, or maybe Jefferson or Logan, we'll see
- U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor for July came in at 1.8% y/y (they were hoping for 2.5%, in their dreams 2.7%)
- Australia's all "Woo, Business Confidence for July is at a level 7" (they thought 3 was decent, but 5 was its past gig)
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
On Monday, the markets were moving like sloths waiting for Tuesday’s inflation drama ⏳. European markets couldn't decide on a direction, with the UK’s FTSE 100 upticking by 0.23%, Germany’s DAX taking a 0.26% L, and France’s CAC 40 dropping by 0.28%. 😅
Over in the US, stock vibes were a bit down after Nasdaq scored some intraday goals. The S&P 500 took a mini L of 0.25% landing at 6,373 after failing to score over 6,400, and Dow was dragging down by 0.45%. Discourse that Nvidia and AMD gotta pay 15% of their AI chip money from China to the US added some spicy pressure on tech. Treasury buzz stayed pretty chill, though the 10-year yield slightly dipped by 1.2 basis points to 4.27% as the market was on standby for the US CPI show.
Gold dropped to $3,340 by 1.3% after Trump cleared the air on Truth Social that importing gold is tariff-free, stirring up Friday's confusion. Bitcoin shot up to $122,300 before pulling a plot twist and rolling back to around $118,500. WTI crude oil, helped by the China tariff pause but cautious about Friday's Trump-Putin Ukraine peace delibs, crept up by 0.27% to stand at $64.05.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The dollar started on the back foot after China dropped mixed inflation deets, which kinda killed the safe-haven vibes 😩. The lack of action from Japan due to their Mountain Day holiday added to the dollar's chill mood. But then, things flipped as the European markets opened, and peeps got into the defensive zone before the big US CPI scoop.
Trump's lil' extension on the US-China tariff was a breather, but couldn't keep the vibe going, with the dollar flexing due to the unknowns about upcoming US-China chats and Trump's tea time with Putin this Friday. The Greenback held its ground against the antipode squad ahead of the RBA's planned rate cut, and went on to gain against the euro and pound, 'cause the BOE's "hawkish cut" didn't faze it. 💪
The yen stumbled a bit as safe-haven vibes were kinda mixed in the sesh. The dollar's late-game power-up reflected its strong stance before the inflation story that could decide the Fed's September move. 🏋️♂️ All eyes were on whether they'll cut rates by a quarter-point. Treasury yields chilled at a steady level, while gold took a sharp dive, boosting the dollar's late session hustle.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
-
U.K.'s touching base on employment vibes for June at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K.'s taking notes on average earnings incl. bonus (3Mo/Yr) for June 💸
- U.K.'s keeping an eye on average earnings excl. bonus (3Mo/Yr) for June 🕵️♀️
- The U.K.'s got receipts on unemployment plays for June
- The U.K. is checking those claimant counts for July
- Germany's ZEW economic moods for August dropping at 9:00 am GMT 🕕
- Euro gang's ZEW economic mood vibes for August rolling in at 9:00 am GMT💡
- The US checking in on NFIB biz optimism feels for July at 10:00 am GMT
- Canada's dropping building vibes for June at 12:30 pm GMT 🔨
- The US will be serving CPI drama for July at 12:30 pm GMT👀
- U.S. Fed's dropping some Barkin banter at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed's Schmid will be chatting at 2:30 pm GMT
- The US API's cranking out those crude oil stock change vibes for August 8 at 8:30 pm GMT
- NZ's got some electronic card retail stats for July at 10:45 pm GMT 📈
- Japan's bringing out the Reuters Tankan index crew for August at 11:00 pm GMT
- Japan's PPI is on deck for July at 11:50 pm GMT📊
Looks like the European session could start with some fire as Sterling and the euro feel it out with U.K. job numbers and wage stats, then watch Germany and the Euro area make sentiment moves. Hit hard, raise those euros, never mind them tariff worries. 🚀
Stateside, the July CPI is like the marquee storyline for USD moves, sneak peeks thanks to Fed speakers and API crude chat being the supporting acts.
Stay woke for any global trade goss or political tea that might shake up the game. Keep it flexy and always remember to check our Forex Correlation Calculator when rolling those trades! 🌍🌟
