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After a shortened trading week, U.S. traders will come back to a busy data calendar. Here are events that can move the dollar this week!

ISM’s PMIs

Manufacturing-related data

  • The U.S. trade deficit (Dec 5, 1:30 pm GMT) is expected to narrow down from $52.5B to $48.9B in October
  • Factory orders (Dec 5, 3:00 pm GMT) could improve by 0.1% after slipping by 0.6% in September

NFP-related reports

  • Non-farm payrolls (NFP) registered a 128,000 gain in October, lower than the 180,000 increase in September but higher than the expected 86,000 increase
  • Jobless rate ticked higher from 3.5% to 3.6%
  • Labor force participation rate was unchanged at 63.3%
  • Average hourly earnings inched up by 0.2%, higher than September’s 0.0% but lower than the 0.3% expected
  • USD traded higher and then dropped back down after an hour or two as job growth slowed by less than what analysts had expected
  • Traders see NFP higher at 190,000 in November
  • Unemployment rate (3.6%) and participation rate (63.3%) could maintain last month’s readings
  • Average hourly earnings could improve from 0.2% to 0.3% but hold its annualized reading (3.0%)
  • Leading indicators like the ADP report (Dec 4, 1:15 pm GMT), Challenger job cuts (Dec 5, 12:30 pm GMT), initial jobless claims (Dec 5, 1:30 pm GMT) and employment components of manufacturing and services PMIs could also affect USD’s intraday price moves

U.S.-China trade updates

  • Website Axios reports that the U.S.-China trade deal has now “stalled because of Hong Kong legislation
  • China could announce “strong counter-measures” after Trump supported Hong Kong protesters’ rights last week
  • Traders will also watch for updates on the Trump administration’s plans regarding the tariffs on Chinese products scheduled on December 15
  • Positive updates could push USD – which already has the advantage of the Fed not cutting rates further anytime soon – higher

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic says that USD is “overbought” against JPY, CHF, and AUD and “oversold” against NZD on the daily time frame

  • USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD are bullish across short and long-term SMAs. USD/AUD and USD/EUR are nearly there too.
  • USD/GBP is bearish across short and long-term SMAs

  • USD has seen the most volatility against NZD, AUD, GBP, and JPY in the last 30 days


Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for November 25 – 29!