USD Weekly Forecast (Dec. 2 – 6)

After a shortened trading week, U.S. traders will come back to a busy data calendar. Here are events that can move the dollar this week!

ISM’s PMIs

ISM’s Manufacturing PMI edged higher from 47.8 to 48.3 in October
The manufacturing PMI was printed at the same time as the positive NFP report, which boosted USD at the time
ISM’s manufacturing PMI (Dec 2, 3:00 pm GMT) could come in at 49.5 in November
Non-manufacturing PMI improved from 52.6 to 54.7 vs. 53.5 expected
U.S. considered dropping some tariffs on China’s goods on the same trading session, which pushed USD higher across the board
ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI (Dec 4, 3:00 pm GMT) is seen at 54.5 in November

The U.S. trade deficit (Dec 5, 1:30 pm GMT) is expected to narrow down from $52.5B to $48.9B in October
Factory orders (Dec 5, 3:00 pm GMT) could improve by 0.1% after slipping by 0.6% in September

Non-farm payrolls (NFP) registered a 128,000 gain in October, lower than the 180,000 increase in September but higher than the expected 86,000 increase
Jobless rate ticked higher from 3.5% to 3.6%
Labor force participation rate was unchanged at 63.3%
Average hourly earnings inched up by 0.2%, higher than September’s 0.0% but lower than the 0.3% expected
USD traded higher and then dropped back down after an hour or two as job growth slowed by less than what analysts had expected
Traders see NFP higher at 190,000 in November
Unemployment rate (3.6%) and participation rate (63.3%) could maintain last month’s readings
Average hourly earnings could improve from 0.2% to 0.3% but hold its annualized reading (3.0%)
Leading indicators like the ADP report (Dec 4, 1:15 pm GMT), Challenger job cuts (Dec 5, 12:30 pm GMT), initial jobless claims (Dec 5, 1:30 pm GMT) and employment components of manufacturing and services PMIs could also affect USD’s intraday price moves

Website Axios reports that the U.S.-China trade deal has now “stalled because of Hong Kong legislation”
China could announce “strong counter-measures” after Trump supported Hong Kong protesters’ rights last week
Traders will also watch for updates on the Trump administration’s plans regarding the tariffs on Chinese products scheduled on December 15
Positive updates could push USD – which already has the advantage of the Fed not cutting rates further anytime soon – higher

Stochastic says that USD is “overbought” against JPY, CHF, and AUD and “oversold” against NZD on the daily time frame

USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD are bullish across short and long-term SMAs. USD/AUD and USD/EUR are nearly there too.
USD/GBP is bearish across short and long-term SMAs

USD has seen the most volatility against NZD, AUD, GBP, and JPY in the last 30 days