AUD Weekly Forecast (Dec. 2 – 6)

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Aussie bulls and bears are in for a busy week, as traders look to top-tier Australian data and global trade updates for volatility.

Here are catalysts to watch out for if you’re planning on trading the Aussie!

RBA’s statement (Dec 3, 3:30 am GMT)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprisingly kept its interest rates at 0.75% in November, which boosted AUD at the time
RBA warned that it’s “prepared to ease monetary policy further” if needed
Some banks and financial firms are becoming convinced that RBA could cut rates as much as twice next year
For now, analysts see the central bank maintaining its 0.75% interest rates in December

The economy grew by 0.5% in Q2 2019, maintaining its Q1 growth and meeting markets’ expectations
Net exports and government spending were able to offset weaker household consumption and lower dwelling investment
Annualized GDP clocked in at 1.4%, lower than the 1.7% seen in Q1 and marked the weakest since the Global Financial Crisis
Luckily for AUD bulls, China had also hinted at potential stimulus around the time of the GDP release and AUD was (temporarily) pushed higher across the board
Analysts see Q3 2019 GDP maintaining its 0.5% reading, while the annualized version could tick higher to 1.7%

Australia’s trade surplus widened from 6.62B AUD in August to 7.18B AUD in September. Markets had predicted the surplus at around 5B AUD
Exports gained by 3.0% and rose to an all-time high of 43.22B, while imports also ticked 3.0% higher to a second highest on record figure of 36.03B AUD
Market players expect the trade surplus to shrink to 6.8B AUD in October
Retail activity slowed down from 0.4% to 0.2% in September, weaker than the 0.5% increase that traders had expected
Optimism over a U.S.-China trade deal pushed AUD higher during the Asian session, but weak retail data eventually weighed on the Aussie in the later trading sessions
Analysts see retail sales rising by 0.3% in October

Stochastic flags AUD as “oversold” against NZD, USD, EUR, GBP, and almost there against CAD

Williams %R only supports the “oversold” verdict against NZD and USD though it’s close against EUR and GBP

AUD/CAD, ADU/CHF, and AUD/JPY are all trading below the 200 SMA but above their 50 SMA. Keep your eyes peeled for retracement opportunities or longer-term reversals!

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for November 25 – 29!