Aussie bulls and bears are in for a busy week, as traders look to top-tier Australian data and global trade updates for volatility.
Here are catalysts to watch out for if you’re planning on trading the Aussie!
RBA’s statement (Dec 3, 3:30 am GMT)
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprisingly kept its interest rates at 0.75% in November, which boosted AUD at the time
- RBA warned that it’s “prepared to ease monetary policy further” if needed
- Some banks and financial firms are becoming convinced that RBA could cut rates as much as twice next year
- For now, analysts see the central bank maintaining its 0.75% interest rates in December
Quarterly GDP (Dec 3, 12:30 am GMT)
- The economy grew by 0.5% in Q2 2019, maintaining its Q1 growth and meeting markets’ expectations
- Net exports and government spending were able to offset weaker household consumption and lower dwelling investment
- Annualized GDP clocked in at 1.4%, lower than the 1.7% seen in Q1 and marked the weakest since the Global Financial Crisis
- Luckily for AUD bulls, China had also hinted at potential stimulus around the time of the GDP release and AUD was (temporarily) pushed higher across the board
- Analysts see Q3 2019 GDP maintaining its 0.5% reading, while the annualized version could tick higher to 1.7%
Trade balance and retail sales (Dec 5, 12:30 am GMT)
- Australia’s trade surplus widened from 6.62B AUD in August to 7.18B AUD in September. Markets had predicted the surplus at around 5B AUD
- Exports gained by 3.0% and rose to an all-time high of 43.22B, while imports also ticked 3.0% higher to a second highest on record figure of 36.03B AUD
- Market players expect the trade surplus to shrink to 6.8B AUD in October
- Retail activity slowed down from 0.4% to 0.2% in September, weaker than the 0.5% increase that traders had expected
- Optimism over a U.S.-China trade deal pushed AUD higher during the Asian session, but weak retail data eventually weighed on the Aussie in the later trading sessions
- Analysts see retail sales rising by 0.3% in October
- Stochastic flags AUD as “oversold” against NZD, USD, EUR, GBP, and almost there against CAD
- Williams %R only supports the “oversold” verdict against NZD and USD though it’s close against EUR and GBP
- RSI only supports the “oversold” label against NZD
- AUD/CAD, ADU/CHF, and AUD/JPY are all trading below the 200 SMA but above their 50 SMA. Keep your eyes peeled for retracement opportunities or longer-term reversals!
Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for November 25 – 29!