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Aussie bulls and bears are in for a busy week, as traders look to top-tier Australian data and global trade updates for volatility.

Here are catalysts to watch out for if you’re planning on trading the Aussie!

RBA’s statement (Dec 3, 3:30 am GMT)

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprisingly kept its interest rates at 0.75% in November, which boosted AUD at the time
  • RBA warned that it’s “prepared to ease monetary policy further” if needed
  • Some banks and financial firms are becoming convinced that RBA could cut rates as much as twice next year
  • For now, analysts see the central bank maintaining its 0.75% interest rates in December

Quarterly GDP (Dec 3, 12:30 am GMT)

  • The economy grew by 0.5% in Q2 2019, maintaining its Q1 growth and meeting markets’ expectations
  • Net exports and government spending were able to offset weaker household consumption and lower dwelling investment
  • Annualized GDP clocked in at 1.4%, lower than the 1.7% seen in Q1 and marked the weakest since the Global Financial Crisis
  • Luckily for AUD bulls, China had also hinted at potential stimulus around the time of the GDP release and AUD was (temporarily) pushed higher across the board
  • Analysts see Q3 2019 GDP maintaining its 0.5% reading, while the annualized version could tick higher to 1.7%

Trade balance and retail sales (Dec 5, 12:30 am GMT)

  • Australia’s trade surplus widened from 6.62B AUD in August to 7.18B AUD in September. Markets had predicted the surplus at around 5B AUD
  • Exports gained by 3.0% and rose to an all-time high of 43.22B, while imports also ticked 3.0% higher to a second highest on record figure of 36.03B AUD
  • Market players expect the trade surplus to shrink to 6.8B AUD in October
  • Retail activity slowed down from 0.4% to 0.2% in September, weaker than the 0.5% increase that traders had expected
  • Optimism over a U.S.-China trade deal pushed AUD higher during the Asian session, but weak retail data eventually weighed on the Aussie in the later trading sessions
  • Analysts see retail sales rising by 0.3% in October

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic flags AUD as “oversold” against NZD, USD, EUR, GBP, and almost there against CAD

  • Williams %R only supports the “oversold” verdict against NZD and USD though it’s close against EUR and GBP

  • RSI only supports the “oversold” label against NZD

  • AUD/CAD, ADU/CHF, and AUD/JPY are all trading below the 200 SMA but above their 50 SMA. Keep your eyes peeled for retracement opportunities or longer-term reversals!


Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for November 25 – 29!