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The combo of positive trade updates and weak domestic data clobbered the yen last week. Can the bulls catch up with this week’s potential catalysts?

Consumer-related reports

  • Traders will be interested to see how consumer spending patterns have changed after October’s sales tax hike. Retail sales for the month had already fallen by its steepest rate since 2015
  • Household spending (Dec 5, 11:30 pm GMT) is projected to dip by 2.5% (y/y) after rising by 9.5% in September
  • Average cash earnings (Dec 5, 11:30 pm GMT) could only rise by 0.3% (y/y) after a 0.5% in September

U.S.-China trade updates

  • Traders will watch how the Trump administration will decide on the $156B worth of Chinese goods scheduled to get additional tariffs on December 15
  • China could also rock the boat if it implements “strong counter-measures” after the U.S. has officially supported Hong Kong protesters’ rights last week

Technical snapshot

  • Among those that are “bearish but weakening” on the longer-term SMAs, NZD/JPY is most “bullish” on the shorter-term SMAs, followed by EUR/JPY and then AUD/JPY

  • Stochastic AND Willliams %R both label JPY is “oversold” against CAD, EUR, GBP, NZD, and USD on the daily time frame

Missed last week’s price action? Read JPY’s price recap for November 25 – 29!