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The BOC is up this week! Check out other major economic events that could affect the Loonie’s price action in the next couple of days.

BOC’s statement (Dec 4, 3:00 pm GMT)

  • Bank of Canada (BOC) kept its overnight rates steady in October AND opened the door to future rate cuts
  • CAD dropped across the board at the surprising openness to rate cuts
  • BOC is most concerned about “trade conflicts and uncertainty” and the impact of global slowdown “beyond manufacturing and investment.” It said it will pay close attention to consumer spending, housing activity, and fiscal policy developments
  • Analysts see the central bank maintaining its 1.75% overnight rate in December

Trade balance (Dec 5, 1:30 pm GMT)

  • Canada’s trade deficit narrowed down from 1.24B CAD in August to 0.98B CAD in September
  • Exports dipped by 1.3% while imports slipped by 0.4%
  • CAD fell against its counterparts as USD (and other better-looking currencies?) rallied on the back of U.S.-China trade optimism
  • Traders see the trade deficit widening to 1.34B CAD in October

IVEY PMI (Dec 5, 3:00 pm GMT)

  • Traders look to the IVEY PMI as a leading indicator for the month’s employment data
  • The index dipped further into contractionary territory in October (from 48.7 to 48.2) after sliding from 60.6 in August
  • The weak report, combined with overall risk aversion, extended CAD’s intraweek downtrend last month
  • Market players see the PMI coming in at 49.3 in November

Labor market numbers (Dec 6, 1:30 pm GMT)

  • Jobless rate remained at 5.5% in October, the lowest since June
  • The economy lost a net 1,800 jobs with full-time employment falling by 16,100 while part-time jobs went up by 14,300
  • The weak reading supported BOC rate cut speculations and weighed on CAD at the time
  • Analysts expect the unemployment rate to remain at 5.5%; labor force participation rate to maintain its 65.7% reading, and the market to gain a net of 10,000 jobs in November
  • The U.S. will print its NFP data this week, which could overshadow Canada’s release

OPEC meetings

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic flags CAD as “overbought” against CHF and JPY and “oversold” against NZD

  • AUD/CAD, EUR/CAD, and NZD/CAD are all trading above their 50 SMAs but lower than their 200 SMAs. Watch out for short-term retracements or longer-term reversals!

  • CAD has seen the most volatility against GBP, EUR, and NZD in the last 30 days

Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for November 25 – 29!