Daily Big Market Vibe Check – August 5, 2025

Yo fam, things were kinda chill in the financial streets early Tuesday, until the vibes got messy again after the U.S. ISM services PMI dropped and Trump popped off with more hot takes. 🤑

Even though the EU hit pause on clapping back at the US with their counter-blows, Trump was like, “Yo, Europe, cough up a deal ASAP or face major tariffs," making all the global trade peeps sweat. 😬

Here's some tea you might have missed in recent trading sessions. 🚀

Headlines:

• NZ ANZ Commodity Prices for July: dropping a cool -1.8% (-2.4% before)
• Aussie ANZ Job Ads down for July: -1.0% (last reading got downgraded from 1.8% to 1.6%)
• China’s got that Caixin Services PMI flexing at 52.6 (forecasts were sleepy at 50.4, previous was 50.6)
• European Union backs down... Delayed their retaliatory tariff plans on the US after Trump and EU Prez Ursula von de Leyen bro’ed out
• Euro Zone HCOB Composite PMI Final: Slay of 50.9 (51.0 was the goal post; previous was 50.6👇)
  • Germany HCOB Composite PMI: Holding at 50.6 (50.3 was the guesstimate; last time was 50.4)
  • France HCOB Composite PMI: Not really the vibe at 48.6 (49.6 was what we wanted; previously 49.2)
• Euro area HCOB Services PMI Final: Chillin' at 51.0 (51.2 guess; old news: 50.5)
  • France HCOB Services PMI: Lame at 48.5 (49.7 wanted; once was 49.6)
  • Germany HCOB Services PMI: Solid 50.6 (50.1 hopes; before was 49.7)
• EU says 15% tariff is a be-all bout, covering cars too, but the peace treaty ain't binding yet 🚗
• EU trade boss Sefcovic spilled about some ‘turbulence’ in US talks 🌪️
• U.K. New Car Sales YoY for July 2025 at -5.0% (game plan was 6.0%; past was 6.7%)
• U.K. S&P Global Composite PMI for July 2025: Vibes at 51.5 (51.0 planned; last was 52.0)
• U.K. S&P Global Services PMI: Holding its own at 51.8 (goal was 51.2; past was 52.8)
• Euro area PPI YoY for June 2025: 0.6% (0.4% foresight; 0.3% oldie); Euro area PPI MoM: 0.8% (0.7% goal; was a sad -0.6%)
• Canada Balance of Trade: Struggling at -5.86B (-5.6B in the cards; was -5.9B)
  • Canada Exports: Vibing high at 61.74B (forecast was 61.0B; last was 60.81B)
  • Canada Imports: Going up at 67.6B (66.6B foreseen; 66.66B last season)
• U.S. Balance of Trade scored -60.2B (-61.4B was the guess; last was -71.5B)
  • U.S. Imports: Rolled in at 337.5B (338.6B was the wishlist; back then was 350.5B)
  • U.S. Exports: Flexed 277.3B (target 277.2B; past 279.0B)
• U.S. S&P Global Services PMI Final: 55.7 (high-key beating the forecast of 55.2; was 52.9 last)
• U.S. ISM Services PMI: Scored 50.1 (predicted 51.0; until now was 50.8)
  • U.S. ISM Services Prices: Hella at 69.9 (expected 67.7; 67.5 ya know)
  • U.S. ISM Services Employment: A bit iffy at 46.4 (was dreaming of 48.0; was 47.2)
• U.S. RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index: Peak 50.9 (49.0 was hinted; 48.6 was history)
• Trump's out here calling Fed's boss Powell “highly political” and hinted other peeps might be up next 😏
• Trump talking that EU better step up or higher tariffs might be it – chips gonna catch the heat too real soon
• NZ Global Dairy Trade Price Index: Comin' in at 0.7% (0.9% hoped for; 1.1% was the throwback)
• U.S. API Crude Oil Stock Change: Sunk -4.2M (held 1.54M prior)
• NZ Employment Change QoQ: Tiny downshift -0.1% (-0.1% expected; it was 0.1% before)
• NZ Labour Costs Index YoY: Solid 2.2% (calling 2.0%; was aimed at 2.5% last)

Broad Market Price Action:

Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Markets were all chill during Tuesday’s Asian trading sesh – ignoring China's surprise uptick in Caixin services PMI as everyone prepped for the next wave of big moves. 📈

Crude oil dipped under its line when Europe clocked in, probs cuz of more trade drama pressure and OPEC+ saying “we’re making more oil in Sept.” Tromp added fuel with threats of higher EU and chip tariffs. 🙄💥

U.S. stocks took an L too, looking at potential boosts in tariffs for pharma and chip imports. The Dow finished like 0.14% down and S&P 500 slid on that rollercoaster, losing 0.49%. 🎢

Treasury yields and the dollar didn’t vibe with the latest Trump spew, especially when he called out Fed head Powell. Also tossing around fresh names for Chairperson like it’s a reality TV vote off. 😂

Gold which was losing a bit of spark, got the shine back as EU delayed their US counter-punches. Safe-haven vibe came in hot with Trump’s speech and the weak ISM services PMI, closing 0.22% higher. 💰

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView

The Greenback kicked off with some bearish vibes during the first hours of Tuesday's Asian trading, milking the previous session's energy, but flipped back when risk-off vibes decided to crash the party. 💸

Traders dished on upbeat Chinese services PMI like "no biggie", leaving NZD and AUD on the decline with influence from New Zealand's dud on commodity prices and Australia's meh job ads stat. 📉

The dollar was flexing as European markets got their grind on, catching the euro slipping on weaker-than-expected PPI stats. GBP flexed its gains though, dodging the trade drama bullets between EU-US talks. 🏴‍☠️

Trump's comeback forced the dollar to give up some morning glory. His beef with Fed head Powell and warnings about upcoming EU tariffs had peeps nervous, especially on pharma and chips import levies. 💊💾

The dollar took a downturn post the U.S. ISM services PMI fail, missing numbers with 50.1 when peeps expected 51.5. Tariff madness putting a damper on orders and vibes. Still, USD was lucky holding against JPY, with BOJ not making any major moves tight. 🤷‍♂️

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• Germany HCOB Construction PMI firing at 7:30 am GMT
• U.K. S&P Global Construction PMI at 8:30 am GMT 🔨
• Euro area Retail Sales hits at 9:00 am GMT 🛍️
• U.S. MBA Mortgage Application vibes at 11:00 am GMT 🏠
• Canada S&P Global Services PMI and Composite PMI both at 1:30 pm GMT 🍁🚀
• U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at 2:30 pm GMT 🛢️
• U.S. Fed Cook Speech later tonight at 6:00 pm GMT 🎤

Not much heavy-lifting econ news today, but watch out for eurozone retail sales and EIA crude stats. They could rattle the EUR pairs or ripple through commodities. 🌊🔍

As always, eyes peeled for world trade deets and any geopolitical shake-ups affecting the markets' vibe. Stay adaptive and don't forget to scope our Forex Correlation Calculator before locking those trades! 🌟