Just like that, another quarter passes us by! And before I get ready to attack Q2, here’s a quick summary and thoughts on my Q1 trades!
|Date||Trade Idea||P/L in Pips||P/L in %|
|Feb. 6||GBP/NZD Pullback Long Setup||Not taken||Not taken|
|Feb. 6||GBP/AUD Momentum Lower||Not taken||Not taken|
|Mar. 12||EUR/GBP Resistance Retest?||+47||+0.11|
|Nov. 20||AUD/CAD Short at Resistance||+64||+0.14|
|Nov. 29||AUD/NZD Resistance Retest?||+55||+0.35|
No. of Trades Taken: 3
No. of Wins: 3
Average Gain R:R: 0.40
Average Loss R:R: 0.00
Largest Drawdown: 0.00%
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 100.0%
Average % risk per trade: 0.50%
Total Q1 Blog Profit / Loss in %: +0.60% on 1.50% total risk taken
In my Q4 2018 review, I talked about how I should probably focus more on non-GBP pairs to avoid Brexit risks, but with volatility seemingly drying up this quarter, often times I had to look to the Brexit drama for opportunities.
I did take a stab at three GBP trades, but only managed to get in the EUR/GBP as I closed my orders on GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD early. Closing those orders turned out to be both good and bad: good in that I avoided the rally in GBP/AUD that would have punished my short idea, and bad in that my call to buy GBP/NZD would have panned out nicely as the pair maxed out at around +500 pips. I guess it was a net win since I was able to make a gain on the EUR/GBP trade, but I think my overall net performance would still have been better had I taken the other two other GBP trades.
As far as my other non-GBP trades, I focused on the deteriorating sentiment on the Aussie, which actually worked out pretty well as I paired that sentiment with the Kiwi and the Loonie. The Loonie had a nice run all quarter as oil prices rose, and the New Zealand dollar seems to have found support in Q1, likely on improving risk sentiment (possibly on less fears of an all out U.S.-China trade war and declining odds of a no-deal Brexit).
But I think I missed out by not shorting the euro more, which was relatively weak as European economic data disappointed all quarter, and eventually lead to stimulative rhetoric and action by the ECB in March. Had I moved on that story more I think I could have improved on my overall performance.
Overall, three wins and no losses is not bad, but as always, it could’ve been better. Going forward, I think risk sentiment will continue to improve if the U.S.-China trade deal gets done and the Brexit saga avoids the “no-deal” end scenario. And while the world is slowing, it’s unlikely we’ll get to a broad recession with central banks keeping cheap money in the system. If this all holds true, I’ll be looking for long comdolls / short safe haven setups until the story changes.
What do you think? Agree? Disagree? And how did you do in Q1? Please leave your thoughts and comments down below!
This content is strictly for informational purposes only and does not constitute as investment advice. Trading any financial market involves risk. Please read our Risk Disclosure to make sure you understand the risks involved.