With the first half of 2019 in the books, it’s time to do a quick review and see what improvements I can make to hopefully step my game up for the rest of the year!
|Date Closed||Trade Idea||P/L in Pips||P/L in %|
|May 7||CAD/JPY Long Ahead of BOC Meeting||-92||-0.32|
|May 7||GBP/NZD Resistance Break-n-Retest||+160||+0.47|
|May 12||Support Break Ahead on AUD/NZD?||-78||-0.70|
|Jul 2||Fib Short on AUD/CAD||+123||+0.605|
|Jul 4||Downtrend Bounce in GBP/JPY||+93||+0.67|
No. of Trades Taken: 5
No. of Wins: 3
Average Gain R:R: 0.94
Average Loss R:R: -1.02
Largest Drawdown: -1.02%
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 60.00%
Average % risk per trade: 0.60%
Total Q2 Blog Profit / Loss in %: +0.72% on 3.00% total risk taken
In my Q1 2019 review, I thought risk sentiment would continue to improve if the U.S.-China trade story continued to improve and because the world’s major central banks were leaning towards more stimulative rhetoric as global economic data started to slow. And I also said that if that held true, I’d look for long comdolls vs. safe havens to play those themes.
Well, looking back at the second quarter, while central banks did continue to lean towards a return to more stimulative behavior (because the economic outlook continued to worsen), the geopolitical scene soured up a bit as U.S.-China trade negotiations hit quite a few big bumps in the road. So, the comdolls didn’t perform very well (minus the Canadian dollar) while safe havens (mainly the Japanese yen) did better than the rest of the majors.
While the fundamental picture didn’t play out exactly in the way that I thought, I did manage to have a net positive quarter, mostly focusing on a weaker Sterling (Brexit drama that included British PM resigning), a weaker Aussie (RBA rate cuts started to be priced into the markets on weakening economic conditions) and Loonie strength (not-so-bad Canadian economic data; especially jobs and inflation data). These themes all worked out pretty well, and where it didn’t was in my CAD/JPY trade (due to the broad shift towards negative in global risk sentiment; supporting the yen higher), and my AUD/NZD short which was more of a trade management mistake as I didn’t take off risk ahead of the Australian elections during that weekend. My bias was later proven correct after that weekend gap higher that took me out at a higher loss than I planned out for.
So overall, I think did pretty good with my directional biases in pairing currencies, and an okay job with trade management (should have held on longer with my GBP/NZD long, and closed my AUD/CAD & GBP/JPY shorts at the right time). I probably could have done better with my ideas as I did see risk sentiment starting to sour, but with central bank rhetoric moving towards a more stimulative mode, I think that’s where I froze on trying to put more bullish trades on safe havens like the Japanese yen.
Going forward, the data says the world is still slowing and it’s hard to say whether the coming monetary policy easing actions we’ll see soon are going to hold off a global recession. So I don’t really have an overall global sentiment bias right now, and with volatility generally trending lower at the moment, I think I’ll stick to shorter-term trades based on how geopolitical and monetary policy news develops.
What do you think? Agree? Disagree? And how did you do in Q2? Please leave your thoughts and comments down below!
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