Before hitting the forex charts hard for 2020, it’s time to do a quick recap of my blog trades from Q4 2019 to see both the good and the bad, and what I can learn from them.
Basic Forex Trading Stats
|DATE||TRADE IDEA||P/L in pips||P/L R:R|
|10/14||Bulls to Take Control on CAD/CHF?||+82||0.80|
|11/7||CAD/JPY Resistance Break & Retest?||+92||0.34|
|11/13||AUD/NZD Range Support Ahead?||-41||-0.34|
|12/12||Resistance Play on EUR/JPY?||-138||-1.00|
Total Number of Trades in Q4: 5
Average Gain R:R: 0.61
Average Loss R:R: -0.67
Largest Drawdown: -0.50%
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 66.0%
Average % risk per trade: 0.70%
Total Q4 Blog Profit / Loss in %: -0.13% on 2.00% total risk taken
First, the good. Based on the stats above, I had more winners than losers in what was a relatively quiet quarter of only five trades. My directional bias was probably the strongest aspect of my trading as I correctly rode the relative out performance of the Loonie with two winners, as well as Sterling’s big fourth quarter run on improving Brexit conditions.
Now the bad. My two big wins in terms of R:R were my CAD/CHF long and EUR/GBP short ideas. Unfortunately, I started with only 0.25% risk on those trades as the entry strategy for both were to start with nibbler positions. Had I keep my risk per trade consistent, my net return would have been +0.24% on 2.00% risk taken. My second mistake was on EUR/JPY as I let that trade run all the way to max loss, instead of cutting it off manually earlier.
Overall, I think my biases were pretty good for the quarter as I caught the two big winning currencies, but I could have put more “risk-on” type trades as the geopolitical environment improved. Or at the very least, I could have pressed my winners more since they were the strongest currencies at the time.
Going forward, I’ll look to be more consistent with my risk taken, shifting my entry strategy a little bit by going with fuller positions with wider stops instead of nibblers with tighter stops. With that adjustment, I’ll likely go for smaller profits, but it also depends on what the markets give me in terms of catalysts and driving themes. And whether or not we see sustained volatility levels and momentum moves.
What do you think of my review and how did you do in Q4 2019? Please share your thoughts in the comment box below. Thanks for checking out my blog…good luck and good trading!
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