Despite having more winning ideas than losing ones, my performance took a slight step back in the third quarter. Here’s a quick review and adjustments to make going forward.
|Date Closed||Trade Idea||P/L in Pips||P/L in %|
|July 18||NZD/CHF to Return to Downtrend?||-101||-0.50|
|July 30||EUR/AUD Downtrend Bounce Ahead?||-212||-0.88|
|Aug 14||EUR/CAD Fibonacci Resistance?||+29||+0.14|
|Sept 3||Fib Resistance on GBP/JPY?||+270||+0.375|
|Sept 17||Downside Breakout or Fakeout on EUR/GBP?||+93||+0.13|
No. of Trades Taken: 5
No. of Wins: 3
Average Gain R:R: 0.43
Average Loss R:R: -0.94
Largest Drawdown: -1.38%
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 60.00%
Average % risk per trade: 0.67%
Total Q3 Blog Profit / Loss in %: -0.07% on 3.33% total risk taken
It was a slow start to the third quarter as I upped my average risk but took two losses on NZD/CHF and EUR/AUD. I was actually correct in my short biases on both pairs, but I was super early in shorting, and likely would have made money on if I had been a bit more patient.
That’s actually a lesson I took to my remaining trades of the quarter, where I scaled into my trade ideas and/or wait for further retracement. This worked out well in my EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY and EUR/CAD short ideas, but there was the drawback of being live with smaller positions that I want, thus running the risk of not maximizing the profit on my ideas. Unfortunately that’s what happened as my average risk during that string of three wins was only 0.61% vs. the average risk of 0.75% in those two losses, so I wasn’t able to catch up all the way back despite being right three times in a row.
But the biggest hindrance to my performance when switching to a more conservative entry style was missing probably the best trade idea of the quarter, my short idea on NZD/CAD back in July. The market did continue its bounce higher as expected, but missed my short entry orders by less than 10 pips before going my way to the tune of about a 7.00% or 600 pip drop. That idea was with a full 1.00% risk plan and would have maxed out its profit at four times the risk! So, in an effort to have a perfect entry, I missed out on probably the best trade of the year, just to try to scrape in an extra 10 pips or so!
So overall, I’m not upset with an ever so slight loss for the quarter, but it does irk me I missed out on a really great trade. And going forward, I’ll try to do a better job of reassessing my entry strat to possibly hop in after a move is confirmed as to avoid missing another big winner like the drop in NZD/CAD.
That’s it for now and looking forward, the market continues to be a geopolitical news driven mess, but hopefully we’ll get closer to a resolution in the Brexit saga and U.S.-China trade war, which will hopefully bring on more sustainable swing plays and longer-term position plays.
What do you think about the geopolitics driving the markets…will they be done soon? Agree? Disagree? And how did you do in Q3? Please leave your thoughts and comments down below!
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