Everyone well-rested and back from the holidays? I sure am! But before getting the ball rolling with my trades this year, lemme do a quick rundown of my Q4 performance.
As with the previous quarters, I tried to stick to longer-term plays, so I only a few ideas posted in Q4. Let’s take a look, shall we?
|Date||Trade Idea||P/L in Pips||P/L in %|
|Oct. 11||Another GBP/CAD Double Bottom||-250||-0.50|
|Nov. 7||GBP/CHF Broken Channel Retest||+50||+0.06|
|Nov. 15||GBP/NZD Long-Term Channel Bottom||Not taken||Not taken|
|Nov. 20||EUR/CAD Long-Term Wedge Breakout||Not taken||Not taken|
|Nov. 29||AUD/JPY Aiming for Triangle Top?||Not taken||Not taken|
|Dec. 6||GBP/AUD Bearish Channel Bounce or Break?||Not taken||Not taken|
|Dec. 20||EUR/AUD Pullback to Broken Channel Support||-300||-0.50%|
No. of Trades Taken: 3
No. of Wins: 1
No. of Losses: 2
No. of Break Even Trades: 0
Win %: 33%
Average Gain Per Winning Trade: +0.06%
Average Loss Per Losing Trade: -0.50%
Total P/L: -0.94%
I do wish I could start this review off by looking at the positive things first, but there seem to be none! One measly 0.06% win perhaps?
Apart from that, nothing seemed to go right with my Q4 2018 run as I chickened out on taking a bunch of what could’ve been winners and wasn’t even able to press my advantage on that one winning trade.
Here’s a play-by-play:
Another GBP/CAD Double Bottom: I hopped in long position after what seemed to be an upside neckline break, but this reversal just didn’t gain traction as price fell back below support.
Looking back, I really shouldn’t have insisted on my bullish GBP bias since Brexit was becoming the more dominant theme at that time. Instead, I swallowed a big loss to start of the quarter and this may have hurt my mojo in the weeks that followed.
GBP/CHF Broken Channel Retest: This trade was the one that got away from me this quarter. I managed to catch a pretty decent conservative entry on a pullback to the broken long-term channel bottom, but I may have gotten spooked on yet another retest.
I rolled my stop just slightly below entry while waiting for the BOE Super Thursday, so I got knocked out of the trade on a pop higher before the slide to the swing low (and my PT!) ensued. Ugh!
GBP/NZD Long-Term Channel Bottom: Yep, another pound play! I was hoping to renew my bullish bias on this one again as GBP/NZD was closing in on the very bottom of its rising channel on the daily time frame.
I’m thanking my lucky stars for deciding to stay out of this one as the worsening Brexit situation led me to eventually drop my optimism for the U.K. economy. Phew!
EUR/CAD Long-Term Wedge Breakout: Another one that I let slip away! I had my one good eye on the upside wedge breakout for this pair right around the time that crude oil started sliding.
At that time, I was still hoping to catch a brief retest of the broken wedge top around the 1.5000 mark, but that never happened. And instead of hopping in a small position at market so as to not miss the move, I just watched the pair climb all the way up to the 1.5600 area while wallowing in regret.
AUD/JPY Aiming for Triangle Top: Also another setup that I thankfully let slide. I saw a couple of bullish hints on the short-term charts but soon realized that risk sentiment was far too shaky to sustain any upside moves. Besides, the profit potential seemed limited then.
GBP/AUD Bearish Channel Bounce: Not again with another pound setup?! I thought I spotted a bearish divergence on the short-term charts, but the persistent risk-off vibes put more weight on the higher-yielding Aussie.
EUR/AUD Pullback to Broken Channel Support: Since I figured it might make more sense to steer clear of the pound and focus on another European cross, I thought this pair would be easier to trade.
It seemed that the pair already busted through the long-term channel bottom and was pulling up, giving me a classic break-and-retest setup to catch. Unfortunately, risk aversion came in full swing towards the end of the year and took this pair all the way up to my stop.
If there’s one way to sum up my Q4 2018 run, it’s that I do miss 100% of the shots I don’t take. I could’ve caught a couple of big wins had I not been too conservative with my entries or reeling from earlier losses.
Still, I think it’s worth noting that some of my decisions to stay out actually saved me a ton of pips. What I probably should’ve done was to pay more attention to non-GBP pairs in order to avoid Brexit-related risks, but at that time those seemed more exciting to trade.
There may still have been a bit of self-doubt carried over from my shaky performance for the most part of the year, so I know I gotta shake this off if I want to recover this 2019.
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