Not gonna beat around the bush on this one, but Q2 was a rough one for me. Choppy price action, shifting events and a big mistake had me shaking me head. Here’s a quick rundown.
Basic Forex Trading Stats
|DATE||TRADE IDEA||P/L in pips||P/L in %|
|Apr 15||Strong Resistance on AUD/USD?||+110||+0.32|
|Apr 24||CHF/JPY Downtrend Pullback Opportunity?||-280||-1.03|
|May 24||Upside Channel Breakout on NZD/CAD||-93||-0.24|
|May 26||GBP/CHF to Resume Uptrend?||-181||-0.45|
|Jun 6||NZD/USD Short at Previous Resistance||-170||-0.50|
|Jun 8||Resistance on CAD/JPY||+129||+0.39|
|Jun 27||CHF/JPY Resistance at 114.00?||-185||-0.50|
Total Number of Trade Ideas in Q2: 7
Breakeven/No Trade: 0
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 29%
Average Winning Trade in %: +0.32%
Average Losing Trade in %: -0.54%
Largest Drawdown: -2.22%
Average % risk per trade: 0.50%
Total Q2 Blog Profit / Loss in %: -2.03% on 3.50% risk taken
In my last performance reflection post at the end of Q1, I asked whether or not I should switch to quick profit taking versus trying to catch momentum/maximize gains. Well, this time I didn’t have much of a choice to pick one or the other because of shifting narratives and new developments mid-trade had me cutting out of trades faster than a knife fight in a phone booth.
Again, most of my ideas were based on fundamentals/driving themes at the time, and for a lot of my trades, those fundamental stories just saw fresh developments that didn’t go my way. For example, the surprise bullish sentiment from the Bank of Canada during my NZD/CAD long position, the U.K. Q1 GDP downgrade shortly after going long on GBP/CHF, and the positive commodity price/disappointing U.S. jobs data during my NZD/USD short changed the short-term bias on all of those ideas.
But probably the biggest, most hurtful event for me was during the French Presidential elections. It was a slim Macron victory that prompted a big gap in the euro and the Swiss franc at the open of trade on Monday, which in turn hurt me more than I planned for with CHF/JPY gapping above my stop to close me out at a way worse price. Fortunately, it was only a -1.03% loss, but it was also almost half of my total loss for the quarter…so it was big to me. I probably should have close early but the risk-to-reward and odds of success based on the polls still favored holding on. I’ll probably have to do more a little more thinking about closing if the situation were to arise again.
At any rate, looking back at the choppy charts, as well as the different shifts in market themes and narratives, it was a tough quarter for me and my trading framework. Probably my biggest mistake was that I didn’t shift my biases quick enough as the stories changed, and I should have been quicker to cut trades, whether ahead of a major event or at the first sign of price/sentiment invalidation.
Looking forward, I’ll probably look to take some profits quicker (as I did with my latest AUD/CAD idea), and try to cut losses quicker when the driving themes change to a narrative that doesn’t work for my trade anymore. Easy, right?
What do you think? And how did you do in Q2 2017? Please share your thoughts in the comment box below. Thanks for checking out my blog…good luck and good trading!
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