Q1 is done! It’s time to do a quick review on whether my 2016 adjustments were done & what adjustments I need to make with the current environment. Check it out!
Basic Forex Trading Stats
|DATE||TRADE IDEA||P/L in pips||P/L in %|
|Jan 19||GBP/JPY Head & Shoulders Breakdown||+100||+0.125|
|Feb 23||GBP/NZD Falling Trendline Retest||+23||+0.03|
|Feb 28||EUR/CAD Triangle Breakout||-259||-0.50|
|Mar 9||CHF/JPY Trendline Breakdown||-83||-0.44|
|Mar 14||Return to the Uptrend in USD/CHF?||+101||+0.32|
|Mar 28||Potential Support on NZD/CHF?||-90||-0.34|
Total Number of Trade Ideas in Q1: 6
Breakeven/No Trade: 0
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 50%
Average Winning Trade in %: +0.16%
Average Losing Trade in %: -0.43%
Largest Drawdown: -0.94%
Average % risk per trade: 0.50%
Total Q1 Blog Profit / Loss in %: -0.81% on 3.00% risk taken
In my last performance reflection post at the end of 2016, I made two things my goals for 2017: basing my trades more on the fundies and better trade management (i.e., trying to hold onto winning trades longer/cutting losers quicker).
I think I did a pretty good job on focusing on the different fundamental situations developing throughout Q1, but I definitely missed out on the bullish shift in the euro. While I did recognize the data was improving big time, my long-term euro short bias couldn’t get me in there. So, I definitely missed some pips there but I think that trade could be topping out. Also, I probably jumped in on the NZD bull train a little too late, but I thought the interest rate differential could support it just a little bit more.
Trade management is always a tough thing to judge right after the trade, and now that a little time has passed since closing these trades, in hindsight I would say it was probably half good and half bad. My stops and risk reduction moves saved me on my GBP/NZD, EUR/CAD, and USD/CHF trades, but on my CHF/JPY & GBP/JPY trades, I definitely left lots of pips on the table as they had pretty good one way moves. And as for my NZD/CHF trade, it’s still hanging around my original entry point, but if I had been a little more patient and stuck to my fundamental bias, I’d still be in and profitable.
Overall, while I think I did a better job of framing my trades more on the fundamental drivers, trade management still remains a challenge as always. And I think it will continue to be a challenge if currency volatility remains low and if I continue to look to maximize winners rather than take profits quickly. All of my ideas were profitable at one point or another, so I guess a new question I should be asking is, “Maybe I should look to start taking profits quickly?”
What do you think? And how did you do in Q1 2017? Please share your thoughts in the comment box below. Thanks for checking out my blog…good luck and good trading!
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