Much better than my second quarter, but I still took a hit in the third quarter. Time for a quick review to see where I can improve.
Basic Forex Trading Stats
|DATE||TRADE IDEA||P/L in pips||P/L in %|
|July 4||Consolidation Breakdown on AUD/NZD?||-165||-0.50|
|July 19||AUD/CAD Downside Momentum||+83||+0.23|
|July 26||NZD/JPY Range Reversal Lower?||-159||-0.34|
|Aug 7||Upside Momentum on EUR/JPY||+129||+0.38|
|Aug 7||GBP/AUD Downtrend Pullback||0||0|
|Aug 11||USD/CHF Downtrend Break||-30||-0.10%|
|Aug 23||Divergence on EUR/NZD?||-137||-0.50|
|Sept 1||AUD/JPY Downtrend Fib Pullback||-85||-0.28|
|Sept 1||Fib Bounce in GBP/CAD Downtrend||+245||+0.33|
|Sept 13||Trend Pullback on EUR/USD||-58||-0.16|
|Sept 19||EUR/GBP Downtrend Short||0||0|
|Sept 28||Rising Low Break on AUD/USD||+98||+0.27|
Total Number of Trade Ideas in Q3: 12
Breakeven/No Trade: 2
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 40.00%
Average Winning Trade in %: +0.28%
Average Losing Trade in %: -0.31%
Largest Drawdown: -0.88%
Average % risk per trade: 0.50%
Total Q3 Blog Profit / Loss in %: -0.67% on 3.00% risk taken
Looking back on my trade journal, I’d say I was pretty in tune with a lot of the themes driving the markets in the past few months, mostly the improving economic data & monetary policy tightening speculation that was happening in the major economies, and the shifting risk sentiment off of geopolitical risks (e.g., North Korea’s missiles, U.S. healthcare and tax reform issues). My directional bias was probably spot on with about 8 out of 11 of those ideas, but the results were really on how I managed those ideas in terms of entry and exits.
Two winning trades I missed were the GBP/AUD and EUR/GBP short ideas. Because of a little bit too conservative entry points, I missed out on some pips, especially in GBP/AUD which had a strong 300 – 400 pip move lower after putting my orders on that went untriggered.
Then there were a couple of trades that I got right, but I closed a little bit too early on like my EUR/JPY long (missed an additional 400 pip potential) and an AUD/CAD short that dropped back down for about another 300 pips.
Finally, there was my NZD/JPY short, which I was just flat out early on. Almost right after having to take a small loss after an upside consolidation breakout, the pair turned around to go my way, dropping around 600 pips over the next couple of months. Grrrrrrrr!!
Of course, there were moves that I should have cut out early on as the story changed on my like my AUD/NZD short and my EUR/NZD short. The latter of the two was probably the worst trade of the quarter as that was based mostly on a technical setup (I was fundamentally biased euro over Kiwi) AND I didn’t close it sooner as price went against me. Silly move Pipcrawler!
To sum it all up, no matter how good your are with directional bias, timing is hard and trade management can be tough with the shifting themes/volatility. At least for me it is. It’s something that I’ll probably continue to battle with for the rest of my trading career, but hopefully I’ll continue to improve little by little and stay focused along the way.
What do you think of my review and how did you do in Q3 2017? Please share your thoughts in the comment box below. Thanks for checking out my blog…good luck and good trading!
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