With nuclear war rhetoric turned up to 11 this week, I thought it would be a good idea to de-risk and re-assess. So, I closed out my USD/CHF manually for a tiny scratch.
Trade Idea: USD/CHF Downtrend Break
After setting orders to play the falling trendline break and retest setup on USD/CHF, it probably wasn’t more than an hour or so later that market volatility turned up after Trump’s ‘fire and fury’ warning to North Korea.
As expected, risk-off sentiment took off, benefiting safe haven currencies like the Japanese yen as Swiss franc. The move was enough to trigger my long order at .9650 and go live.
I thought about closing right away, but I figured the Greenback would get some love too in this situation, which is what happened as USD/CHF basically consolidated this week around .9650.
But I think it’s likely tensions will continue for some time between the U.S. and North Korea, and I think if so, the Swiss franc will likely edge out the Greenback. So I decided to close out my USD/CHF manually at .9620 this morning, ahead of what turned to be an anticipated disappointing round of U.S. CPI data:
Total: -30 pips/-0.10% loss on 0.50% risk
Can’t really say much about this trade since a big catalyst came almost right after I put the idea out there. In situations like this, I think it’s best to step away, especially when we hear take of a major game changer like nuclear war. In my mind, it’s a low probability event, but the risk and reaction potential is super high if it does happen.
Anyways, flat for now and waiting to see how it all pans out. Stay tuned, good luck and good trading!
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