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Decided to close out my NZD/CAD long for both fundamental & technical reasons. Here’s a quick review of thoughts and how the trade turned out!

Trade Idea: Upside Channel Breakout on NZD/CAD

NZD/CAD 4-Hour Forex Chart
NZD/CAD 4-Hour Forex Chart

After being in this trade for a few weeks, I wasn’t getting the upside momentum I had hoped for as the pair has ranged between .9350 – .9500 since I entered. It’s likely a combination of relative strength for both the Kiwi and the Loonie that has kept it range bound, something that I don’t see likely to change based on recent price action. This especially goes for the Canadian dollar, which got a boost today after the Bank of Canada monetary policy statement, which came off a little more upbeat on their outlook relative to the March policy meeting.

With the Loonie likely to see strength short-term, it’s a low probability to me that .9500 is gonna be broken soon, invalidating my original technical setup of an upside channel break. And with the forex calendar void of any high probability bullish catalysts for the Kiwi over the next couple of weeks, I decided to close out my position manually this morning at .9432 for a very small hit:

Total: -93 pips/-0.24% loss on 0.50% risk

This leaves me with an open long on GBP/CHF with the market consolidating around my open price, and open orders to short NZD/USD. Sellers do seem to be holding that strong resistance area, so I may adjust my entry in case it is too conservative. Stay tuned!

Risk Disclosure
Pipcrawler’s Q1 2017 Blog Trading Performance

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