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This past week I decided to reduce risk & lock in more profits ahead of Aussie data, but it was mostly President Trump that sent USD against me to take me out at my adjusted stop. Here’s a quick review & thoughts!

Trade Idea: Strong Resistance on AUD/USD?

AUD/USD Daily Forex Chart
AUD/USD Daily Forex Chart

As mentioned above, I decided to roll down my stop ahead of top tier Australian data, which did end up beating forecasts big time at +60.9K versus the +20K expected net change. This was certainly a contributor to AUD/USD’s rally higher, but probably the bigger catalyst was U.S. dollar comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, reversing campaign rhetoric by saying the Buck was “getting too strong.” This sent the Greenback lower quite a bit, including against the Aussie, and enough to hit my adjusted stop at .7590 to close out my trade. 

Total: +110 pips/0.32% gain on 0.50% risk

While I’m happy that I did roll down my stop, it did take me out at an area that seems to be drawing in sellers and stalling the rallying AUD/USD.  Is this a chance to sell again? I don’t know, but with Trump at the helm, looking beyond even a few days to develop a USD view is a tough challenge. Odds are that he’s not gonna flip dollar rhetoric again any time soon with him recognizing how it hurts his economic agenda, but he doesn’t necessarily have to talk about the U.S. dollar to get it moving in one direction or another.

So, I’mma stay on the sidelines with the Greenback for now, but I am still bearish on AUD/USD.  I’ll be watching for a re-test of that major resistance area or a break of that major psychological area around .7500 before making my next move. Until my next idea, stay tuned and trade safe!

Risk Disclosure
Pipcrawler’s Q1 2017 Blog Trading Performance

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