Unlike last week, New Zealand will be printing top-tier economic data this week. Which ones should you watch out for?

Labor market data (Feb 4, 9:45 pm GMT)

  • Employment slowed down from 0.6% to 0.2% in Q3 2019
  • Unemployment rate jumped from 3.9% to 4.2% during the quarter
  • NZD cemented its intraweek downtrend despite a generally risk-friendly environment
  • Analysts see a 1.3% increase in jobs in Q4 2019
  • Unemployment rate could maintain its 4.2% reading

Quarterly inflation expectations (Feb 7, 2:00 am GMT)

  • Two-year inflation expectations edged lower from 1.86% to 1.80% in Q3 2019
  • The report, printed close to the RBNZ meeting, dragged NZD lower as it raised the odds of the central bank cutting its rates

Market risk sentiment

  • All eyes are on China’s markets, which will open for the first time since the Coronavirus scare blew up
  • RBA’s policy statement and China’s Caixin PMIs and trade numbers due this week can affect demand for NZD
  • U.S. NFP-related volatility can also weigh or boost demand for the high-yielding NZD

Technical snapshot

  • RSI and Keltner Channels are considering NZD as “oversold” against EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY, and USD on the daily time frame
  • Stochastic, Williams %R, and daily Bollinger Bands are flagging NZD’s “oversold” status against EUR, GBP, CAD, CHF, JPY, and USD

  • AUD/NZD is trading above its 5 EMA but below its 20, 50, and 200 EMAs on the daily
  • EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD are trading above short AND long-term EMAs on the daily time frame
  • NZD/CAD, NZD/CHF, NZD/JPY, and NZD/USD are all trading below their short AND long-term EMAs on the daily time frame

Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for January 27 – 31!