Nothing but a sea of red for Kiwi pairs, likely on the weaker-than-expected update from New Zealand employment report to likely push up the odds of another RBNZ rate cut.
New Zealand Headlines and Economic data
- Strong start for the Kiwi, likely on further U.S.-China trade deal optimism to lift global risk assets, but the tide turned during the U.S. trading session, possibly a move with the weakening Aussie (a combination of the tick lower in retail sales and a decent probability the RBA will cut interest rates) and/or expectations of a NZ jobs disappointment.
- The ANZ World Commodity Price Index lifted 1.2% in October m/m, currently 7.2% higher than it was a year ago
- There doesn’t seem to be any direct catalysts for the broad move lower in Kiwi pairs, so again, it’s likely traders positioning for a disappointing NZ employment report.
- New Zealand Unemployment Rises as RBNZ Contemplates Rate Cut -This was basically the nail in the coffin that kept the Kiwi under pressure for the rest of the week despite the rise in positive global risk sentiment for most of the week.
- Kiwi fought to push the market higher on the session, possibly on news that China says it has agreed with U.S. to cancel tariffs in phases, but ultimately couldn’t hold a bid. It’s possible that that news of internal opposition in the Trump administration on the trade deal could have had an influence on the Kiwi’s move back lower.
- Risk sentiment continued south going into the weekend to have likely weakened the Kiwi further, possibly thanks to comments from U.S. President Trump after he said he has not agreed to roll back the tariffs on China.