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Both the euro and franc were net losers on the week as U.S.-China trade developments mostly stayed positive to push traders out of the two non/negative-yielding currencies.
The Euro
European Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
- IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (final data): PMI little-changed at seven-year low in October
- Sentix investor confidence improves in November to -4.5 vs. -16.8 in October
Tuesday:
- The French government budget balance amounted to – € 109.0B in Sept. 2019 versus – € 87.1B at the end of Sept. 2018.
- Spanish unemployment falls by 77,044 people in the last twelve months
- Industrial producer prices up by 0.1% in both euro area and EU28
Wednesday:
- German factory orders rise in September after two declines
- IHS Markit Germany Services PMI: Service sector growth remains subdued amid ongoing weakness in demand
- IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI: Euro area remains close to stagnation as new work falls again
- French activity growth accelerates amid faster rise in demand
Thursday:
- Drop in German industrial output adds to recession fears
- ECB sees modest but positive euro zone growth in H2
- In Sept. 2019 the monthly growth rate of Italian sales rose by 0.7% in value terms and by 0.8% in volume terms, after two consecutive monthly falls
- EU cuts growth forecasts for the euro zone on global trade tensions
- Trump will not impose tariffs on European cars, EU chief says
Friday:
- German exports up 1.5% in September, stronger than expected
- The French trade deficit widened to EUR 5.55 billion in September 2019 from an upwardly revised EUR 5.44 billion in the previous month
The Swiss Franc
Swiss Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
- Swiss Consumer sentiment: expectations regarding the Swiss economy deteriorating
- A pop higher in the franc against the majors during the U.S. session was likely on a little bit of risk aversion sentiment, possibly on news that China was pressing Trump to remove more tariffs ahead of trade deal signing.
Tuesday:
- Overall, global risk sentiment continued to rise through the Tuesday session amid further U.S.-China trade deal optimism, sending the franc lower.
Wednesday:
- Global risk sentiment soured during this session, likely on news that the U.S.-China trade deal signing could be pushed into December, which could be the reason we saw Swiss franc strength during U.S. trading hours
Thursday:
- The Swiss unemployment rate rose from 2.1% in September 2019 to 2.2% in October. Compared to the same month of the previous year, unemployment fell by -5.2%.
- News that China says it has agreed with U.S. to cancel tariffs in phases sentiment global risk sentiment very much into positive, hurting franc bulls in the process.
Friday:
- Risk sentiment turned south going into the weekend, pushing the franc up higher against higher-yielding majors after reports of internal opposition to the trade deal and after Trump said he has not agreed to roll back the tariffs on China.