Both the euro and franc were net losers on the week as U.S.-China trade developments mostly stayed positive to push traders out of the two non/negative-yielding currencies.
The Euro
Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
EUR Weekly Performance from MarketMilk
European Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
- IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (final data): PMI little-changed at seven-year low in October
- Sentix investor confidence improves in November to -4.5 vs. -16.8 in October
Tuesday:
- The French government budget balance amounted to – € 109.0B in Sept. 2019 versus – € 87.1B at the end of Sept. 2018.
- Spanish unemployment falls by 77,044 people in the last twelve months
- Industrial producer prices up by 0.1% in both euro area and EU28
Wednesday:
- German factory orders rise in September after two declines
- IHS Markit Germany Services PMI: Service sector growth remains subdued amid ongoing weakness in demand
- IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI: Euro area remains close to stagnation as new work falls again
- French activity growth accelerates amid faster rise in demand
Thursday:
- Drop in German industrial output adds to recession fears
- ECB sees modest but positive euro zone growth in H2
- In Sept. 2019 the monthly growth rate of Italian sales rose by 0.7% in value terms and by 0.8% in volume terms, after two consecutive monthly falls
- EU cuts growth forecasts for the euro zone on global trade tensions
- Trump will not impose tariffs on European cars, EU chief says
Friday:
- German exports up 1.5% in September, stronger than expected
- The French trade deficit widened to EUR 5.55 billion in September 2019 from an upwardly revised EUR 5.44 billion in the previous month
The Swiss Franc
Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
CHF Weekly Performance from MarketMilk
Swiss Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
- Swiss Consumer sentiment: expectations regarding the Swiss economy deteriorating
- A pop higher in the franc against the majors during the U.S. session was likely on a little bit of risk aversion sentiment, possibly on news that China was pressing Trump to remove more tariffs ahead of trade deal signing.
Tuesday:
- Overall, global risk sentiment continued to rise through the Tuesday session amid further U.S.-China trade deal optimism, sending the franc lower.
Wednesday:
- Global risk sentiment soured during this session, likely on news that the U.S.-China trade deal signing could be pushed into December, which could be the reason we saw Swiss franc strength during U.S. trading hours
Thursday:
- The Swiss unemployment rate rose from 2.1% in September 2019 to 2.2% in October. Compared to the same month of the previous year, unemployment fell by -5.2%.
- News that China says it has agreed with U.S. to cancel tariffs in phases sentiment global risk sentiment very much into positive, hurting franc bulls in the process.
Friday:
- Risk sentiment turned south going into the weekend, pushing the franc up higher against higher-yielding majors after reports of internal opposition to the trade deal and after Trump said he has not agreed to roll back the tariffs on China.
