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Positive data got nothin’ on Coronavirus scare last week! Can Aussie bulls recover some of their losses this week?

Here’s a list of catalysts that might turn the tides for the Aussie:

RBA’s policy statement (Feb 4, 3:30 am GMT)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its rates at a record low of 0.75% in December
  • AUD dropped on overall risk aversion and expectations that RBA might cut rates in 2020
  • Traders see RBA’s rates remaining at 0.75% though there could be hints of further easing this year
  • RBA’s quarterly monetary policy statement will be released on Friday (Feb 7) at 12:30 am GMT

Retail sales and trade balance (Feb 6, 12:30 am GMT)

  • Retail trading jumped 0.9% in November – the fastest in two years – on Black Friday sales
  • The positive report and risk-friendly environment boosted AUD across the board
  • Markets expect retail sales to dip by 0.2% in December
  • Australia’s trade surplus widened from 4.08B AUD to 5.80B AUD in November, as exports rose by 2.0% while imports fell by 3.0%
  • AUD popped up and stayed up until the start of London session trading
  • Analysts see the surplus widening further to 5.95B AUD in December

China’s market performance

  • Traders will be watching China’s markets, which will open for the first time since the Coronavirus scare blew up
  • China will print its Caixin manufacturing PMI (Feb 3, 1:45 am GMT) and services PMI (Feb 5, 1:45 am GMT)
  • China will also release its trade balance data on Friday during the Asian session

Overall risk appetite

  • Watch out for updates on the impact of Coronavirus on global travel and trade restrictions
  • NFP-related reports can also affect demand for the high-yielding Aussie this week

Technical snapshot

  • RSI considers AUD as “oversold” against CHF, JPY, USD, EUR, and GBP
  • Stochastic and Williams %R see AUD as “oversold” against CAD, CHF, JPY, USD, EUR, and GBP
  • Daily time frame Bollinger Bands are flagging AUD’s “oversold” conditions against CHF, EUR, and GBP
  • Keltner Channels are pointing at AUD’s “oversold” status against CHF, JPY, USD, EUR, and GBP

  • AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, AUD/JPY, and AUD/USD are all trading below their short and long-term SMAs on the daily
  • EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are trading above their short and long-term SMAs on the daily
  • AUD/NZD is trading above its 5 SMA but below its 20, 50, and 200 SMAs

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for January 27 – 31!