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A lack of economic data exposed the Loonie to market risk sentiment last week. Can this week’s releases change the tune for the comdoll?

Here are potential catalysts you should watch out for:

Trade balance (Feb 5, 1:30 pm GMT)

  • Canada’s trade deficit narrowed from 1.6B CAD to 1.1B CAD in November, the smallest since June
  • CAD was dragged lower on a worse-than-expected IVEY PMI release
  • Traders expect the trade deficit to narrow down further to 0.60B CAD in January

Labor market data (Feb 7, 1:30 pm GMT)

  • Unemployment rate dropped from 5.9% to 5.6% in December
  • A net 35,200 jobs were added during the month after shaving 71,200 jobs in November
  • CAD popped higher at the report’s release but also gave up some of its gains before the day ended
  • Market players see a net 20,500 job addition in January
  • Unemployment rate could edge higher from 5.6% to 5.7%
  • The IVEY PMI report (Feb 7, 3:00 pm GMT), which is usually a leading indicator for Canada’s labor market numbers, will be printed AFTER the official release. It’s expected to print at 52.3 after clocking in at 51.9 in December

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic and Williams %R consider CAD as “oversold” against CHF, JPY, EUR, GBP, and USD and “overbought” against AUD and NZD
  • Bollinger Bands point to CAD’s “oversold” conditions against CHF and EUR on the daily time frame
  • Keltner Channels are flagging CAD’s “oversold” status against CHF and USD

  • EUR/CAD is “bearish but weakening” with the long-term SMAs but “bullish” with shorter-term SMAs. Watch out for potential pullback or reversal
  • CAD/JPY is “bullish but weakening” with the long-term SMAs but “bearish” with shorter-term SMAs. Watch out for potential pullback or reversal


Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for January 27 – 31!