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It’s NFP week, yo! What are markets expecting and which catalysts can you trade this week? I’ve got a list!
PMI releases
- Markit’s final manufacturing PMI (Feb 3, 2:45 pm GMT) is expected to maintain its initial 51.7 reading
- ISM’s manufacturing PMI (Feb 3, 3:00 pm GMT) could clock in at 48.0 after printing at 47.2 in December
- ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI (Feb 5, 3:00 pm GMT) is expected to improve from 55.0 to 55.1 in January
Factory orders (Feb 4, 3:00 pm GMT)
- Factory orders fell by 0.7% in November, its third decline in four months
- The weak report helped drag USD to its intraweek lows at the time
- Analysts see factory orders clocking in a 1.2% gain in December
NFP-related reports
- Non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased by 145,000 in December after a downwardly revised 256,000 gain in November
- Unemployment rate held steady as expected during the month
- Average hourly earnings only edged 0.1% higher when markets had seen a 0.3% uptick
- USD fell across the board at the weaker-than-expected labor market numbers
- The ADP report (Feb 5, 1:15 pm GMT) is expected to print at 155,000 after a 202,000 reading in December
- Weekly unemployment claims (Feb 6, 1:30 pm GMT) could clock in at 210K against last week’s 216K
- Headline NFP is expected at 153,000 in January
- Unemployment rate is expected to maintain its 3.5% reading
- Average hourly earnings could accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3%
Technical snapshot
- RSI considers USD as “overbought” against AUD and NZD
- Stochastic and Williams %R are flagging USD’s “oversold” conditions against JPY and “overbought” status against AUD, NZD, and CAD
- Bollinger Bands point to USD’s “overbought” status against NZD
- Keltner CHannels are flagging USD’s “overbought” conditions against AUD, NZD, and CAD
- USD/CAD and GBP/USD are trading above their short and long-term SMAs on the daily
- USD/CHF, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD are all trading below their short and long-term SMAs
- EUR/USD is trading above its 5 SMA but below its 20, 50, and 200 SMAs
- USD/JPY is trading below its 5, 20, and 50 SMAs but above its 200 SMA
Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for January 27 – 31!