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It’s NFP week, yo! What are markets expecting and which catalysts can you trade this week? I’ve got a list!

PMI releases

  • Markit’s final manufacturing PMI (Feb 3, 2:45 pm GMT) is expected to maintain its initial 51.7 reading
  • ISM’s manufacturing PMI (Feb 3, 3:00 pm GMT) could clock in at 48.0 after printing at 47.2 in December
  • ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI (Feb 5, 3:00 pm GMT) is expected to improve from 55.0 to 55.1 in January

Factory orders (Feb 4, 3:00 pm GMT)

  • Factory orders fell by 0.7% in November, its third decline in four months
  • The weak report helped drag USD to its intraweek lows at the time
  • Analysts see factory orders clocking in a 1.2% gain in December

NFP-related reports

  • Non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased by 145,000 in December after a downwardly revised 256,000 gain in November
  • Unemployment rate held steady as expected during the month
  • Average hourly earnings only edged 0.1% higher when markets had seen a 0.3% uptick
  • USD fell across the board at the weaker-than-expected labor market numbers
  • The ADP report (Feb 5, 1:15 pm GMT) is expected to print at 155,000 after a 202,000 reading in December
  • Weekly unemployment claims (Feb 6, 1:30 pm GMT) could clock in at 210K against last week’s 216K
  • Headline NFP is expected at 153,000 in January
  • Unemployment rate is expected to maintain its 3.5% reading
  • Average hourly earnings could accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3%

Technical snapshot

  • RSI considers USD as “overbought” against AUD and NZD
  • Stochastic and Williams %R are flagging USD’s “oversold” conditions against JPY and “overbought” status against AUD, NZD, and CAD
  • Bollinger Bands point to USD’s “overbought” status against NZD
  • Keltner CHannels are flagging USD’s “overbought” conditions against AUD, NZD, and CAD

  • USD/CAD and GBP/USD are trading above their short and long-term SMAs on the daily
  • USD/CHF, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD are all trading below their short and long-term SMAs
  • EUR/USD is trading above its 5 SMA but below its 20, 50, and 200 SMAs
  • USD/JPY is trading below its 5, 20, and 50 SMAs but above its 200 SMA

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for January 27 – 31!