Partner Center Find a Broker

The New Zealand dollar was on top of the forex hill last week! Can the bulls maintain their momentum with this week’s catalysts?

Here’s a short list of events you should watch out for:

Business NZ manufacturing PMI (Dec 12, 9:30 pm GMT)

  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) pays attention to business sentiment reports like this, so you should too!
  • The PMI came in at 52.6 in October, the first expansion since June and the highest since April
  • NZD gained against its counterparts at the release though gains were limited by an uneventful trading session
  • November’s numbers have come in higher than October’s data five times in the last 10 years

Market risk sentiment

  • With only a week to go before the December 15 tariff increases, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow shared that there’s “no arbitrary deadline” to the Phase 1 deal with China, and that Trump “would not hesitate to increase tariffs” if he’s “not satisfied” with trade deal talks.
  • China wants existing tariffs to ease and the December 15 tariffs cancelled, while the U.S. wants China to commit to a specific amount of agricultural imports
  • U.K.’s parliamentary elections is on Thursday. The strength of the Conservatives’ lead over Labour will likely dictate GBP (and the market’s) confidence
  • The FOMC is also up this week. The Fed will release its dot plot and economic projections. Watch out for the possibilities of further easing in 2020

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic and William %R are signaling that NZD as “overbought” against all major currencies except GBP
  • RSI only flags NZD as “overbought” against AUD, EUR, CHF, and USD
  • The Keltner Channel is showing that NZD is “overbought against AUD, EUR, CAD, and USD

  • AUD/NZD and EUR/NZD are bearish across short and long-term SMAs
  • NZD/CAD and NZD/USD are bullish across short and long-term SMAs
  • NZD/CHF and NZD/JPY are above the 5, 20, and 50 SMAs but still below the 200 SMA

Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for December 2 – 6!