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Weak economic data weighed on the Loonie for most of last week. Can the comdoll recover with a light data calendar?

Here are market events you should pay attention to:

Poloz’ speech (December 12, 5:30 pm GMT)

  • Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz will talk about Canada’s economic outlook in Toronto
  • Poloz will not be seeking a second term when his seven-year stint ends on June 2020
  • BOC maintained its policies last week, and was bullish enough that traders are not expecting easing anytime soon

Market risk sentiment

  • Traders will look at updates on the Trump administration’s decision on the tariffs scheduled on December 15
  • White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow shared last Friday that there’s no “arbitrary deadline” on a Phase One deal with China, and that Trump “would not hesitate to increase tariffs” if he’s not satisfied with the negotiations
  • Deeper production cuts among OPEC and friends should keep crude oil prices afloat. Discussions on policing the agreement, however, could encourage some profit-taking
  • The U.K.’s elections could stimulate volatility especially if Tories can’t secure a majority (326 seats)
  • The Fed is expected to maintain its policies this month, though its dot plot and economic projections could inspire volatility among major currencies

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic, Williams %R, and Keltner Channel all point to CAD being “oversold” against NZD and GBP
  • RSI and Bollinger Bands only flag CAD’s “oversold” status against GBP on the daily time frame

  • GBP/CAD and NZD/CAD are “bullish” across short and long-term SMAs. USD/CAD is a hair’s breadth away from the same conditions
  • CAD/JPY is “bearish” across short and long-term SMAs. CAD/CHF looks like it’s about to achieve the same conditions
  • EUR/CAD is above the 5, 20, and 50 SMAs but still below the 200 SMA

Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for December 2 – 6!