Weak economic data weighed on the Loonie for most of last week. Can the comdoll recover with a light data calendar?
Here are market events you should pay attention to:
Poloz’ speech (December 12, 5:30 pm GMT)
- Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz will talk about Canada’s economic outlook in Toronto
- Poloz will not be seeking a second term when his seven-year stint ends on June 2020
- BOC maintained its policies last week, and was bullish enough that traders are not expecting easing anytime soon
Market risk sentiment
- Traders will look at updates on the Trump administration’s decision on the tariffs scheduled on December 15
- White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow shared last Friday that there’s no “arbitrary deadline” on a Phase One deal with China, and that Trump “would not hesitate to increase tariffs” if he’s not satisfied with the negotiations
- Deeper production cuts among OPEC and friends should keep crude oil prices afloat. Discussions on policing the agreement, however, could encourage some profit-taking
- The U.K.’s elections could stimulate volatility especially if Tories can’t secure a majority (326 seats)
- The Fed is expected to maintain its policies this month, though its dot plot and economic projections could inspire volatility among major currencies
Technical snapshot
- Stochastic, Williams %R, and Keltner Channel all point to CAD being “oversold” against NZD and GBP
- RSI and Bollinger Bands only flag CAD’s “oversold” status against GBP on the daily time frame
- GBP/CAD and NZD/CAD are “bullish” across short and long-term SMAs. USD/CAD is a hair’s breadth away from the same conditions
- CAD/JPY is “bearish” across short and long-term SMAs. CAD/CHF looks like it’s about to achieve the same conditions
- EUR/CAD is above the 5, 20, and 50 SMAs but still below the 200 SMA
Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for December 2 – 6!
