USD Weekly Forecast (Dec. 9 – 13)

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The Fed is up this week! What will Powell say and how will the dollar react?

CPI reports (December 11, 1:30 pm GMT)

U.S. consumer price index (CPI) shot up by 0.4% in October, faster than 0.3% expected and 0.0% growth in September. Core CPI came in at 0.2% as expected
Reaction was muted because Powell was set to testify a few hours later
Analysts see the headline CPI at 0.3% in November
Core CPI could maintain its 0.2% growth
Note that the FOMC statement will be published about 6 hours after the CPI release

Fed cut its rates as expected in October and hinted that there won’t be a hike anytime soon. This resulted in a risk-friendly mood where USD and other low-yielding currencies weakened
Latest FOMC minutes showed little hurry to change the Fed’s plans to “hold” its policies steady
No changes are expected from the Fed’s policies this week
Analysts will look at the Fed’s “dot plot” chart, economic projections, and Powell’s presser for hints a rate hike in 2020

Headline retail sales jumped by 0.3% in October after falling by the same rate in September
Core retail sales recovered by 0.2% after a 0.1% slip in September
The mixed results did not help USD as other U.S. data also came in weak
Market players see headline retail sales rising by 0.5% in November
Core retail sales could come in at 0.5% after a 0.2% gain in October

RSI, Williams %R, and Keltner Channel all signal that USD is “oversold” against GBP and NZD
Stochastic is extending the “oversold” status to GBP, CHF, and NZD

USD has been most volatile against NZD, GBP, AUD, CHF, and JPY in the last 30 days

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for December 2 – 6!